Cheltenham Saturday

12.40 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Finesse) (Grade 2) 2m 179y

A winner at Auteuil in October for Jean-Philippe Dubois, Monte Cristo is ostensibly hard to weigh up on his British debut, but the record of Nicky Henderson with previous French imports, including in this race, suggests he will be up to the job. Henderson has won the Triumph Hurdle seven times, and many of those winners, notably First Bout (February 26th), Alone Success (February 7th), Soldatino (February 27th) and Pentland Hills (February 25th) made their debuts for the stable remarkably late, and were not only successful, but looked like they had been doing the job all their lives.

Plenty of Henderson’s Triumph horses have failed to progress, and many, like Apple’s Shakira and Peace And Co in particular, looked monsters on their first starts only to show no further improvement. With that in mind, I’m not sure backing Monte Cristo for future engagements is wise, but history shows us that his arrival on the scene here is a strong indicator that he will be ready to unleash a smart performance at the first time of asking.

1.15 Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase 2m 4f 127y

There is no trainer in finer form in 2020 over jumps that Anthony Honeyball, and the Dorset handler has sent out eight winners at a strike-rate of 50% over jumps since New Year’s Day. Despite that, his horses are rarely overbet, and we have a prime example here in the shape of Sully D’Oc. He won three of his four starts over French hurdles for Guy Cherel, the final one coming in the Champion Hurdle for Anglo-Arab horses, and the AA suffix in his name gives away the fact that he is an Arab cross, although his sire and damsire are both thoroughbreds.

Unraceable conditions

Sully D’Oc shaped well on his return at Ascot when looked after, and his latest run is best ignored as he failed to cope with almost unraceable conditions at Ascot. In between, he produced a really likeable performance to finish second to Fanion D’Estruval in a novice handicap at Newbury in November. Given the winner started a hot favourite in a Grade 1 next time, and was giving just 3lb to the selection at Newbury, I thought that six-length defeat was a highly creditable one. Given he pulled five lengths clear of the third, he did well not to be raised by the assessor for the run.

Many will assume he was flattered after what happened at Ascot, but two runs in hock-deep ground have seen him run poorly, and it’s clear that he is best away from the mud. He’s won on soft in France, but also on good to firm, and any further drying of the ground would be a bonus to his chances.

1.50 Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 127y

The race in which Lalor, Saint Calvados and winner Oldgrangewood crossed the line together over course and conditions on New Year’s Day was one of the most gripping I’ve seen over fences here in recent years, and while he was beaten, the Kayley Woollacott-trained Lalor came out of the race with huge credit.

Having made much of the running, he looked sure to give best to his rivals between the last two fences, but he rallied splendidly up the hill, and even though the official print tells a different story, the live pictures suggested that he had got back up on the line to gain an unlikely win.

If I thought that watching live, I can only hope the horse did too, and that whatever putative confidence is instilled in victory will count in the merit column.

Lalor looked a star in the making when winning a strong novice on his chase debut here last winter, but he lost his way in spectacular fashion, and it’s fair to say that the Lalor we saw on debut has been absent since.

The decision was made after a lacklustre run in the Haldon Gold Cup to let him race more prominently last time, and the transformation was stunning. He raced with an enthusiasm which has been missing for the past year, jumped superbly, and refused to cede the advantage when challenged.

On that showing, he’s ready to fulfil all his early promise, and is up to defying a big weight, assuming similar tactics are employed.

2.25 Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) 3m 1f 56y

Gold Cup third Bristol De Mai was runner-up in the JLT here as a novice, and yet routinely gets labelled as one who doesn’t handle the track. It’s true that he’s a little more prone to errors here than he seems to be at Haydock, but he was far from disgraced when third in this contest two years ago despite a poor round of jumping, and he barely put a foot wrong in the Gold Cup. He’s the best horse in the race, and won’t be favourite, so he’s not one to oppose lightly.

Santini has something to find even on his best form, and his reappearance effort at Sandown was very laboured, making him an unappealing bet at a short price.

Top Ville Ben would appeal if proving himself at the track, but he seems ideally suited by a flat track at this trip, and is vulnerable up the hill, as he showed at Newcastle two starts back.

3.35 Galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 7f 213y

Paisley Park ought to win this race for the second year, and was spectacularly impressive a year ago, but there is half a chance he’ll still be a little rusty after missing the Long Walk, and he made fairly heavy weather of it when landing the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on his reappearance.

If all eight go to post, I would be inclined to have an each-way investment in Tobefair, who is a lot more reliable than most of this field. His record at Cheltenham is solid, and he has won over course and distance under big weights in contrasting conditions. He may not need to improve to sneak into the frame, and 20/1 is very fair.

Doncaster Saturday

2.40 Napoleons Casino & Restaurant Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 128y

Much as I admire her, Lady Buttons does not have the chance on form that the market indicates in this contest, and she has to be opposed at the early prices.

Novice Floressa is the likeliest winner, but at this stage the value lies with the ultra-consistent Irish Roe, who can boast a course record of 112232, including placed efforts in the last two runnings of this contest, and she looked as good as ever when second to Blu Cavalier here last month. It was slightly odd to see this sparely-made mare tried over fences at Musselburgh recently, but although finishing last, she still shaped very well, and merely lacks the scope to jump steeplechase fences.

Recommended

Sully D’Oc 1.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Hills, BetVictor – paying four places)

Lalor 1.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win @ 5/1 (general)

Irish Roe 2.40 Doncaster - 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, SkyBet, Coral)

Winner

Rory tipped Domaine De L’Isle @ 5/1 at Ascot and Ballyandy @5/2 at Haydock last week