Kempton Saturday

1.15 Play Ladbrokes 5-a-Side Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 2m 4f 110yds

It’s not often you get a chance to back a horse in the same novice chase 12 months apart, or indeed that you’d want to, but there are reasons to believe Hold The Note can belatedly shed his maiden status in this sphere. A look back to the corresponding race last year shows that he was pulled up, but that doesn’t tell the story. He was travelling well in the wake of leader Roll Again when that one fell, and he was so badly hampered that Tom Scudamore pulled him up immediately.

The form of that contest proved red-hot, and Hold The Note was narrowly beaten in a Grade 2 next time before finishing a fine third in the Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap Chase behind Imperial Aura and Galvin. That came off a mark of 145, and after three runs at 3m or further this season, he’s dropped to 140. It’s my view that Hold The Note simply doesn’t stay that trip, and he can prove himself ahead of his mark now reverting to his ideal trip.

1.50 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m

It’s debatable whether the fact that Shan Blue had Hold The Note well behind him last time can be used as an argument in favour of Dan Skelton’s runner in this Grade 1, but that effort was visually very impressive, and the son of Shantou jumped superbly at Wetherby, and that form was franked when runner-up Snow Leopardess won a handicap at Haydock on her next start.

Shan Blue was a useful novice hurdler last season, finishing second to Shishkin in the Sidney Banks Memorial at Huntingdon before running respectably in the Ballymore at Cheltenham in March. On that form he has something to find with The Big Breakaway, but the way he’s taken to fences suggests he can turn the tables, especially with Colin Tizzard’s charge looking hesitant at Exeter last time.

The step-up to 3m will suit The Big Breakaway, who wasn’t helped by having to make his own running last time, but Shan Blue sets a high standard on chase form so far, and he should continue to progress.

2.25 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

It’s almost impossible to find holes in the form of Epatante, and the only betting angle is finding the forecast, which should ensure a respectable payout. It appears to be a straight match between Ballyandy and Silver Streak for the runner-up spot, with that pair filling the places in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham a fortnight ago.

Robust

This race comes soon enough, but both are robust performers who should be able to bounce back from that strenuous workout. There is little to choose between them on balance of form, but the prospect of good ground swings things in the favour of course and distance winner Silver Streak, who was runner-up to Epatante a year ago despite softer ground than ideal, and he was not helped by a rare jumping lapse. He ought to chase Epatante home again assuming the rain doesn’t arrive.

3.00 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) 3m

Clan Des Obeaux is a rather obvious pick for the King George having won the race in real style for the past two years. He looked as good as ever when second to Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase last month, and while that was arguably quite a gruelling contest to endure within five weeks of his major target of the season, I believe much of that argument is predicated on what happened last year with Cyrname, who seemed to struggle to get over a slog at Ascot when beating Altior prior to finishing a 21-length second to Clan Des Obeaux last year.

Foisting the weaknesses of one horse onto another is a dangerous way of analysing a big race, especially where those horses are due to meet again, and I see no obvious reason why Clan Des Obeaux won’t run to his best in this race for a third year running.

Surely his Kempton record is a better indicator of how he will run than a rehash of his stable-companion’s failure to fire here 12 months ago.

It’s important to assess Cyrname’s chance accurately, and therefore we need to establish how much better he might run than he did last year. That’s not easy to do, as there is an element of him underperforming due to the effect of his Ascot performance, but there is also the question of his stamina to consider.

He appeared to prove that he stays 3m when winning the Charlie Hall on his return, but he was able to do that without being asked for maximum effort, and it was notable how he curled up here last year when the screw was turned.

I think the race between the pair will be much closer than it was 12 months ago, but I still believe that Clan Des Obeaux will be too strong over the last quarter mile.

Stamina

The myth that stamina is not fully tested at Kempton is proven to be just that on a regular basis, with Vautour’s failure to hold on from Cue Card in 2015 a painful lesson that even the greatest two and a half milers can’t win without truly staying the trip.

The general consensus among my colleagues is that Cyrname will win, and my guess is that he will start favourite, with Clan Des Obeaux – who is somewhat inexplicably only joint fourth on Timeform ratings – will drift from his current 15/8. This is one occasion where I’d happily take SP, but most firms will go BOG on the day, which acts as a safety net.

Santini’s presence adds some spice to the race, but the fact that he has been categorically ruled out of the contest for the past two years having struggled to cope with the track behind La Bague Au Roi in the Kauto Star as a novice, shows that his trainer feels the track is not suitable.

The worry with Santini is that Nicky Henderson feels that he must have a run as soon as possible, knowing that a failure to fire in next month’s Cotswold Chase will not leave enough time to enact Plan B. That suggests that victory is not his primary objective, and I believe Henderson will be delighted to see Santini finish fifth here, so long as he jumps adequately and is going on at the finish.

He’s better than that, of course, but he’s not necessarily better than that here, and now.

Recommended

Hold The Note 1.15 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power – 4 places)

Shan Blue 1.50 Kempton – 2pts win @ 2/1 (general)

Clan Des Obeaux 3.00 Kempton – 2pts win @ SP