ASCOT SATURDAY

2.30 CHESHAM STAKES (LISTED) 7F

Her price is rather disappointing, but I have no intention of deserting September here. The regally-bred daughter of Deep Impact and Peeping Fawn won what may not have been the strongest maiden run at Leopardstown, but she defied market weakness with a most taking performance and looks open to more than average improvement. It should be remembered that Peeping Fawn herself was far from precocious and her daughter looks the type to progress throughout the season.

3.05 WOLFERTON HANDICAP (LISTED) 1M 1F 212Y

Pacify has just one win in handicap company, that coming in a two-runner contest, and ran badly when fancied for this contest last year, so he looks an odd choice on balance, especially having finished only 12th in the Spring Cup at Newbury on his return. Those facts don’t tell the whole story, however, with the fitting of a visor seeming to backfire 12 months ago and his reappearance coming over a mile.

He didn’t actually shape badly at Newbury and is likely to be somewhere near his best now, with the targeting of the royal meeting obvious given he runs in the colours of Prince Charles. He’s become fairly handicapped and is expected to give a good account of himself back at his optimum trip.

3.40 HARDWICKE STAKES (GROUP 2) 1M 3F 211Y

I’m not especially happy to see him drawn in stall one, but Muntahaa is in danger of being forgotten about on the back of an excusable flop on soft ground at York and can’t go unbacked at overnight prices. Winner of the John Porter Stakes at Newbury in April, he looked set to confirm all the promise he’d shown as a three-year-old. The backward step he took in the Yorkshire Cup shouldn’t be held against him, the ground on its own sufficient excuse.

He clearly can’t beat Dartmouth on that form, but is better judged on Newbury, and will appreciate the return to a sound surface; he also has the prospect of a fairly easy lead if returning to the tactics that served him well at times last year. His low draw would be a negative in a bigger field, but Coronet overcame the inside berth in the Ribblesdale on Thursday, so it’s clearly not the end of the world, especially if the pace is slack early which looks very possible.

4.20 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES (GROUP 1) 6F

It’s somewhat baffling to go through a big field for this Group 1 sprint only to find there is not a single front-runner in the field. Several have made all in the past but recent evidence suggests that this could be remarkably messy.

There are two ways to go in terms of analysis; one being to work out who is most likely to assume pacemaking duties and argue that they could get an easy lead and a big advantage as a result, or find a horse with a sharp turn of foot who is not reliant on a searching pace.

Kachy might be the one to blaze a trail given Richard Kingscote is a jockey for whom such tactics are de rigueur, and he merits a second look, while Suedois is another who could go on with a visor fitted for the first time.

I’d still prefer to find one with a potent change of gear, and The Tin Man appeals most. Winner of the Champions Sprint over course and distance in October, he shaped much better than the result on his reappearance in the Duke of York Stakes and looks a major player in all the big six-furlong events this summer. He’s drawn on a wing, and while it may be the wrong wing, what pace there is seems to lie with those drawn in single figures and he seems more likely than not to get the run of things.

5.00 WOKINGHAM STAKES 6F

Danzeno was proffered as a long-range selection for this and the reasons to support him are still valid, for all a draw right in the middle may turn out to be a disadvantage. Based on pace projection and going-stick readings, I feel that the stands’ side could well be favoured here, and I’m inclined to look to the high numbers for the selection on the day.

I find it hard to believe that Harry Hurricane is available at 50/1 in a place as I write this and George Baker’s blinkered five-year-old gelding must be backed despite a suspicion that he is best at five furlongs. His recent form is very strong, putting up a pair of rock-solid efforts on the clock when placed in this headgear at York and Musselburgh on his last two starts; his narrow second to Line Of Reason in the Scottish Sprint Cup was an especially meritorious effort and he will go close if stretching that impressive speed out for another furlong.

Harry Hurricane has won twice over an extended seven furlongs, and while best at shorter these days, has been placed in the last two runnings of the Portland Handicap at Doncaster which is just 80 yards short of this trip.

His draw in stall 30 could prove to be a excellent one if thepace is indeed high, and even with stamina concerns, he’s more like a 20/1 shot that the current price.

5.35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES 2M 5F 143Y

Thomas Hobson must be respected in his bid to complete the Ascot Stakes/Queen Alexandra double, although the loss of Ryan Moore may be more crucial than many think, and his winning ride on the opening day of the meeting was sublime.

All things considered, the horse who looks overpriced here is former Ascot Stakes runner-up Qewy, who looked better than ever when winning over two miles in Australia last November. His trainer can be relied upon to get his better horses fit to fire after a break and Qewy should have no problems with a wide draw.

RECOMMENDED

THE TIN MAN 4.20 Ascot – 2pts win @ 13/2 (generally)

HARRY HURRICANE 5.00 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

QEWY 5.35 Ascot –1pt e/w @ 6/1 (general – BetVictor pay 4 places)