THE exact shape of the fields and the state of the ground are unknowns at the moment, which makes ante-post betting fraught with danger, but here are a list of handicappers who could reward support at York next week should the stars align for them.
One of the most important aspects of backing handicap winners is spotting which trainers are running into (and out of) form on the run-up to big meetings, and I’ll largely be concentrating on stables which have seen a recent upturn in fortunes or a sustained run of good form.
The perfect example of a trainer just now hitting form is Terry Kent, who has trained just seven winners all season, but five of those winners have come with his last dozen runners, and another three have finished second in that sequence.
Rajaking was one of those winners when scoring over six furlongs at York’s most recent fixture in late-July, and he remains well treated on his best efforts as he bids to get into the opening race of the Ebor Meeting.
He’s stepping up from Class 4 company but the long-striding Rajaking is 5lb below his initial handicap mark, ran his best races last season in late summer for Stuart Williams, and now looks to be coming firmly to the boil for his new yard.
He has shown his best form on good or faster turf on a flat track and has progressed his form with each start since switching to Kent and although not assured of a run, is one to keep firmly inside when conditions are in his favour.
Butler in flying form
Six wins and 15 places in total from 27 runners since the end of July shows that Newmarket-based John Butler has his string in excellent health and Butler goes to York with a couple of interesting entries for Wednesday.
Zain Primus is the least exposed of the pair, but both he and Senor Cortez make the switch to turf after taking wins on the all-weather and may be underrated as a result. Senor Cortez has a firm-ground win to his name at Yarmouth from his time with Robert Eddery and will have a penalty to shoulder in the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap having produced a career-best effort to win by five and a half lengths at Kempton on Monday.
That saw him complete a hat-trick after comfortable wins at Southwell and Lingfield and the way he forged clear in the final furlong at Kempton not only proved that he relishes two miles, but suggests that the trip will bring out more progress (two defeats at the trip came when the stable was quiet in the spring).
Zain Primus will be making his turf debut if lining up for the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap on Wednesday, and many will assume he’s unlikely to match those exploits on the grass as his dam only won on Polytrack.
That fact is misleading, however, as she showed superior form when placed on turf subsequently and her half-brother Brownsea Brink – while also breaking his duck on Polytrack at Kempton – ran up a sequence on a sound turf surface subsequently.
Butler tends to send his better prospects to Newcastle and Kempton for their educational runs and it is no bar to future success when switching surfaces. Zain Primus looked a progressive sort for handicaps when winning a Newcastle novice in May when giving 7lb and a length and a quarter beating to odds-on favourite Spaceman, who won in similar company next time and is now rated 76 by the BHA handicapper.
Based on that formline, an opening mark of 88 is fair for Zain Primus but the style of that win suggests he can do better still and Ray Dawson has been booked for the ride, which is a clear sign of intent.
DANIEL and Clare Kubler are a training duo in flying form since mid-summer and can boast a 40% strike-rate (eight wins from 20 runners) since the end of July. They run Arctic Dawn in the Sir Kevin Sinfield 7 In 7 Grand Finale Handicap on Thursday and while a penalty for winning at Newmarket last time leaves him on a career high mark, the five-year-old is basically a late developer who has improved this year with his only disappointment coming in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Arctic Dawn, who races in the colours of Clare’s parents, Gary and Lesley Middlebrook, was going on well at the finish of the International there on his penultimate start and confirmed that promise when leading late in a bunch finish last time.
On paper a penalty means he’s 3lb badly in having been raised 3lb for Newmarket, but he looks ready for another crack at a mile now and the step up in trip could unlock a bit more. His maiden win came over an extended seven furlongs and on his only previous try at a mile he got outpaced before staying on at the finish.
He’s taken a while to hit top gear the last twice before doing his best work late and is definitely worth another go at this trip. The Kublers clearly agree as they rely on him here having also had Grizedale in the original entries.
Balding aiming to extend record
Andrew Balding has had an excellent season and it’s noteworthy that he’s won three of the last five runnings of Thursday’s Mews Hotel Ossett EBF Stallions Nursery over seven furlongs.
He is likely to be represented by the maiden Rising Tiger, who proved a tad disappointing when giving all-the-way winner Roosike too much rope at Southwell last time when a hot favourite.
He may well meet that filly again and I would be willing to give him another chance in race likely to be run at a more honest gallop.
The son of Minzaal was also beaten favourite on his previous outing, but a defeat by Dr Rascal at Ascot now looks all the better with the winner taking the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time. Rising Tiger’s opening mark looks lenient on that formline and he will relish a good gallop over seven furlongs for all a mile is sure to suit better again in time.