NEWCASTLE SATURDAY

12.20 BETFRED ‘SUPPORTS JACK BERRY HOUSE’ HANDICAP 6F

High draws are usually favoured on the straight track at Newcastle, and that augurs well for the chances of Staxton in this contest, with the three-year-old colt drawn next to the stands rail. Staxton did well as a juvenile, winning a couple of six-furlong contests at Haydock and twice finishing placed in listed company. He wasn’t disgraced in the Free Handicap at Newmarket on his return, and stepped up on that when a solid fourth over this trip at York behind Encrypted. He gives the impression that a stiff six furlongs will prove his ideal test, and there may be more to come given he’s less exposed than most he meets here.

Shanghai Glory is an obvious danger having caught the eye behind Aces at Epsom on Derby day, and he looked set to go close when meeting trouble there. Aces has won again since to give that form a solid look, and Shanghai Glory proved his liking for these big field sprint handicaps when third in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last year, so must go well off an unchanged mark.

One who could step up on some poor efforts is Hyperfocus, who is reported to have benefited from a spell at grass since flopping at Chester in May, and it’s possibly significant that his form also improved markedly at this time last year.

12.55 BETFRED TV CHIPCHASE STAKES (Group 3) 6F

Newcastle has a reputation for suiting hold-up horses, and it’s certainly not been easy to make the running here historically, but hot weather can change the nature of all-weather tracks, and tends to make the surface both slower and more prone to kickback as the binding material melts, and those factors gave prominent racers more chance than would normally be the case.

Kimberella often leads and was unlucky in this race last year when caught in a pocket before flying home to be beaten a head and a neck by Koropick and Intisaab. He doesn’t look to have deteriorated much if at all this season, winning at Thirsk and going down by the narrowest margin to Sir Dancealot at Hamilton last time when again making most of the running. He can reverse 2017 placings with Intisaab and looks a solid favourite despite his advancing years.

1.30 BETFRED NORTHUMBERLAND VASE HANDICAP 2M 56Y

Dannyday was off for almost two years after winning this contest in 2016, and it’s very possible that he’s needed both runs this term to put an edge on him. He looked a stayer going places when gaining that breakthrough success and it’s telling that Sir Michael Stoute and Sir Evelyn de Rothschild have kept faith with the son of Dansili. He was arguably disappointing in the Ascot Stakes last time, although it’s possible that he was either stretched by the trip given how he faded late, or that he was bouncing from a promising return at Goodwood which is hardly surprising given the length of his absence.

It’s possibly more significant to consider his all-weather record compared to his achievements on turf. He’s won his last two races on an artificial surface, but has actually finished unplaced on all his turf outings besides his maiden win at Haydock, so the return to Tapeta can only be a positive now.

2.05 STOBART RAIL & CIVILS NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 2M 56Y

It’s easy to argue a case of sorts for most of the field in the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’, but in reality the betting is completely dominated by the exciting Withhold, who ran out an astonishingly easy winner of the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in the autumn, and could very well be a Group 1 horse on that showing.

He has been raised to a mark of 99 for that stunning victory, but can still rock up here at the lower end of the weights, so well placed was he by Roger Charlton last season. The Cesarewitch was one of only two appearances for Tony Bloom’s son of Champs Elysees in 2017, and I have absolutely no doubt that a couple more runs would have translated into wins and a much more severe hike in the weights.

Bloom is a man with an eye on the big prize, and with horses like Withhold and Penhill he’s content to ration the runs to maximise the impact, and in both of those horses he presumably harbours hopes of taking a shot at the Melbourne Cup, which has long been a dream for the Brighton & Hove Albion owner.

In order to qualify to run at Flemington, Withhold would need to win a listed race or be placed at pattern level, and he holds an entry in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup next month. Neither Charlton nor Bloom are men who do things by half measures, and the five-year-old gelding’s season isn’t starting with this race by accident.

Qualifying for the Melbourne Cup via Goodwood may look audacious, but peaking in early-November is of paramount importance, and a late start to the season was no barrier to success for connections last year. It’s probable that we have yet to see the best of Withhold, and he probably won’t hit that peak until later in the year, but he still stands out as being ahead of his mark based on the style of his Newmarket romp, and it would folly to oppose him despite his subsequent absence.

YORK SATURDAY

2.45 LIKE SUN BETS ON FACEBOOK HANDICAP 7F 192Y

Spray The Sea looks the best bet at York on Saturday, and the Richard Fahey inmate went into the notebook when 2½ lengths fifth of 11 to Maypole in an extended mile handicap at Wolverhampton on his debut for the yard a month ago, doing well to finish so close after being anchored in rear off a modest pace.

His finishing effort was commendable given that those in front were quickening at the same time, and given that was his first run after a lengthy break and being gelded, he can be expected to improve markedly. He has a feather-weight to carry, and the excellent David Egan takes over, so a big run is expected for his in-form yard.

RECOMMENDED

STAXTON 12.20 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 9/1 (Coral)

KIMBERELLA 12.55 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 9/2 (general)

DANNYDAY 1.30 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)

WITHHOLD 2.05 Newcastle – 2pts win @ 7/2 (general)

SPRAY THE SEA 2.45 York – 1pt win @ SP

Winner

Rory tipped the winner of the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last Saturday, Pallasator at 11/2