Newbury Saturday

1:50 Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f 118y

Amour De Nuit looked a horse with issues – physical or temperamental – on his final two chase starts in 2019, but he returned from a long absence looking better than ever when winning hard held over hurdles at Plumpton last month, and he looks capable of continuing in the winning vein having gone up just 3lb for that facile win.

It should be pointed out that the race he won fell apart around him to a degree, but his form in previous seasons is substantial enough to give him every chance here, and what impressed most at Plumpton was the well-being he showed, travelling smoothly from an early stage and simply looking back in love with life.

He will be tested by favourite Tea Clipper, who also has conditions in his favour, with the ground riding unusually good by the standards of recent big meetings, but there’s a bit more juice in his price, and I’m happy to side with him on that basis.

2:25 Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Hurdle (Listed) 2m 69y

I’m sure Major-General “Gerry” Feilden would have supported the push for safer gambling regulation, although whether he would have been happy to see his name removed from the race which has for so long carried the title is another matter.

This intermediate hurdle has proved a stepping stone for many top-class performers, having been won by 10 different Cheltenham Festival winners in the past 50 years, with Epatante the most recent 12 months ago.

Nicky Henderson has not only won a third of the last 15 runnings of the Gerry Feilden, but he also saddled the one-two-three last season, and again has a very strong hand here with both Marie’s Rock and Floressa to represent him. The former is unbeaten in three starts, and looks a very smart prospect for her owners, Middleham Park Racing, and she is the likeliest winner of the race on paper.

I’m in no great hurry to oppose her, but nor am I in the habit of backing 6/4 shots in competitive handicaps, so instead I will have a small each-way interest in Milkwood, who represents the form of the Welsh Champion Hurdle which is proving strong and reliable. He was fourth to Sceau Royal that day, and the winner has won twice since, while runner-up Ballyandy filled the same spot in the Greatwood at Cheltenham.

Buzz, third at Ffos Las was an impressive winner at Ascot last week, and Milkwood is clearly capable of winning handicaps off his current mark given he was hampered approaching the last hurdle, and value for finishing a bit closer on the day.

3:00 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) 3m1f214y

The Ladbrokes Trophy (stop saying Hennessy, for goodness’ sake) looks a rather different race away from testing ground, although it’s noted here that ground conditions were similar 12 months ago, and I’m keen to side with a relatively unexposed chaser who is proven on a sound surface and who’s had a recent run. That annoyingly rules out my ante-post fancy The Conditional, who has better to come over fences, but coming here fresh is not an advantage, and he’ll have to be well ahead of his mark to win on his first run since March.

I’m ruling out Vinndication on the basis that he may be capable of smart form this way around, but he looks altogether happier on a right-handed track. I’m not sure I’ve really narrowed the race down much at all, but I’ve ended with a shortlist of Mister Malarky, Potterman and Secret Advisor.

The first-named of that trio was a fair sixth last year, and is a happier horse away from the mud, so should improve on his reappearance run in the Sodexo Chase at Ascot when unfancied. Blinkers could push him either way, while Potterman is a more reliable proposition having finished second to Secret Investor in the Native River Chase at Chepstow and the Badger Beers at Wincanton.

He would normally look vulnerable in a race like this, but there are no Gold Cup winners in this contest, and I think Potterman will be competitive off the same mark as for those excellent efforts.

He’s better off with Secret Investor to the tune of 6lb for a seven-length defeat, and it’s hard to choose between them. Alan King’s horse gets the eventual vote due to the odds on offer, as he should not be twice the price as one he’s so closely matched with on form.

3:35 Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) 2m 92y

Marracudja is not a confident shout in the race for the Jim Joel Trophy (good of the sponsor to remember gentleman Jim in the title), but it’s interesting to see that he’s become so well treated in a short space of time.

There was uproar after he was hiked in the weights by the handicapper for his third in the Clarence House Chase in January, with owners’ spokesman Dan Abraham suggesting his career might be ruined by being handicapped out of things for a long time, but in four subsequent runs, he’s dropped 4lb below the rating he took into that Ascot contest.

He will benefit from the return of Bridget Andrews to the saddle, and a more patient ride than the one he got at Ascot a week ago could see a very different result.

Newcastle Saturday

2:05 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 46y

Epatante would appear to have a simple task on the ratings for the Fighting Fifth, but punters are always advised to cast their minds back to the last similar certainty in this race, and while what happened to Buveur D’Air a year ago was a complete fluke, there are a million ways to lose a race, and I’m never inclined to get involved with outstanding horses at skinny odds on their seasonal returns.

I suspect that Silver Streak will make her pull out all the stops, and while he was five lengths behind her when second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, he made an uncharacteristic error at the third last, and would have been much closer but for that.

Silver Streak is much better on good ground than softer, and he’s also better than he could show when third in the mud in this a year ago. He won well at Kempton on his return, and while more is needed here, I don’t think there is as much between him and the favourite as bare ratings would lead us to believe.

3:15 Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 91y

Shantou Village offers fair value in the Rehearsal Chase despite being out of the handicap. He’s actually 5lb lower than when unseating at the last in last year’s Kerry National, and is another for whom the ground is important. He travelled best when a good fourth to Present Man in a competitive veterans’ chase at Chepstow on his first start over fences since Listowel, and can build on that with his yard in better form now.

Recommended:

Milkwood 2:25 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Bet365, 888Sport)

Potterman 3:00 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (SkyBet – 6 places)

Marracudja 3:35 Newbury – 1pt win @ 20/1 (general)

Shantou Village 3:15 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 11/1 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor)