Newbury Saturday

1:40 “Join Coral Bet £10 Get £50” Handicap Hurdle

2m 4f 118yd

The forecast for rain on Saturday morning has ebbed and flowed in recent days, but there should be enough around to ensure the hurdles course rides soft and that stamina will be at a premium as a result.

The majority of these handle such conditions, but it was taking to see how well Lud’or coped with heavy ground when winning a 0-145 handicap hurdle at Bangor on his return/handicap bow.

The French-bred gelding was in a class of his own that day, making all, jumping as if on springs, and putting his rivals to the sword in quite a valuable event to win by 27 lengths. Kepler’s Law was another 10 lengths back in fourth and reopposes here, but Lud’or seems sure to confirm the form despite a 13lb rise in the weights.

The selection was a promising novice last term, splitting Horace’s Pearl and Pierrot Jaguen over course and distance on his final start to prove his ability to handle track and conditions. He clearly improved to win at Bangor, but that improvement wasn’t coming out of the blue, and he’s sure to do better again, with further rain a positive to his chances.

French Ship has been put in as favourite and is a promising handicapper in his own right, but while he won on softish ground at Taunton last season, his improved form this autumn (travelling best when falling at Chepstow before winning at Cheltenham) has come on good or faster ground.

I’m not sure he’s set to appreciate the ground easing any further.

2:15 Coral Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (registered as the Gerry Feilden) 2m 69yd

The top three on the card all like to race up with the pace so a strong gallop seems likely in the Gerry Feilden, and that will help Indeevar Bleu, who travels strongly held up.

As a seven-year-old, he’s the oldest in the race by some way, but is low-mileage, having missed more than a year after his hurdles debut.

He had wind surgery before winning on his handicap debut at Ffos Las in April and that was a stronger race than might be expected for the track and for the time of year, with runner-up Stream Of Stars (gave 2lb) winning next time and runner-up off a mark of 126 on his last two starts.

Indeevar Bleu looked out of the top drawer when winning his only bumper by 12 lengths but has taken a while to better that form over hurdles, with his trainer bringing him along seemingly with good handicaps in mind.

He’s fairly treated, having gone up 6lb for Ffos Las, and his previous effort has worked out well, with the first three home all subsequent winners.

Last Rodeo is another who has been campaigned for handicaps and shaped much better than the distance beaten on debut for Christian Williams.

A half-brother to Malina Girl, third in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March, Last Rodeo is likely to need a trip to show his best form, and the drop to two miles is not an obvious plus given the way he stayed on again last time, but he’s worthy of a mention in case the ground gets very testing and his latent stamina comes into play.

He’s the type to make hay in the spring when his stable does best.

2:55 Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase 3m 1f 214yd

Myretown is a good prospect, but he’s not been missed by the handicapper who raised him 15lb for beating useful but exposed handicappers in the Ultima at Cheltenham. Myretown blossomed in the spring having looked in need of a run on last season’s reappearance and it’s never easy coming to this contest without a prep run unless well ahead of the assessor. He’s been the subject of bullish reports, but looks poor value at around 4/1 in what seems an open race.

It goes against the grain to make the above statement and then side with one who was soundly beaten in the Ultima, but Katate Dori shaped much better than pulling up suggests at Cheltenham, having been left poorly placed and forced to race wide after a standing start.

He was badly in need of the run in a Pertemps Qualifier won by Impose Toi at Aintree and in retrospect, that looked purely a pipe-opener for this. His best form has come in a visor, which is refitted here, and any softening ground will suit this thorough stayer.

If having a second dart at the race, and with extra places on offer, I’d be hopeful that the high-class Monty’s Star would be one of the last off the bridle here and while 12 stone is likely to prevent him winning (he’s no Denman), he can pick up a share of the minor money at a big price.

He didn’t always see his races out as well as expected last season, but usually travelled strongly against the best in training at three miles, and class should never be underestimated in the big handicaps.

3:35 Coral Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) 2m 92yd

Doyen Du Bar is taken to make a winning debut for Nicky Richards, with Harry Cobden looking a significant booking for the yard.

The son of Doyen was a winner for Pauline Robson at Ayr in the spring and ended last season with three wins and a second (to Vincenzo at Sandown) from his final four starts over fences.

Richards is a rare visitor to Newbury but is enjoying an excellent month and has always done well – as his late father did before him – with his chasers in November, especially those returning for the season. His sire has a 40% strike rate with his progeny over course and distance and it’s fair to say that Doyen Du Bar, whose owner Eric Elliott used to train with some success himself despite a full-time job as a barrister, ticks plenty of the right boxes.

Newcastle Saturday

2:00 BetMG Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 190yd

In many ways, the Fighting Fifth is the hardest race to call of the weekend, all due to uncertaintly as to what to expect from Constitution Hill.

Nicky Henderson has waxed lyrical about his stable star of late, even suggesting that he has changed shape to look a lengthier, classier horse this term. That seems a little hard to believe at the age of eight but it’s true to say that the former champion has always been physically unassuming and has never once taken the eye in the paddock, so it will be interesting to see if the experts agree with the trainer.

Of more importance is that he was once the best jumper of a hurdle I’ve ever seen, but that strength deserted him completely last season, and I feel strongly that when jumping deserts the best hurdlers, there is no way back – Buveur d’Air is another example of one whose jumping went from almost flawless to a liability later in his career.

With Golden Ace flopping on her return and winning her Champion Hurdle as a direct result of the jumping frailties of her rivals, this looks a good opportunity for The New Lion to throw his hat into the ring, and he wouldn’t be the first to drop back successfully in trip after winning the Baring Bingham over two miles and five furlongs at Cheltenham.

He has the perfect mix of stamina and speed required for this test, and while he couldn’t match a peak Constitution Hill, he almost certainly won’t have to.

3:15 BetMGM Rehearsal

Handicap Chase 2m 7f 91yd

Jasmin De Grugy has done nothing but improve over the last year and is still to reach his peak as a staying chaser, so looks the one to be with in the Rehearsal.

His opening handicap mark was ridiculous (the slowest boats in the north are regularly given opening marks 30lb above their ability level, but a mark of 73 was deemed appropriate for this well-bred gelding by a classic winner from the family of Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy) and his form figures since going handicapping are 21111132, with his best effort arguably coming when runner-up in the Pat Taaffe Memorial at Punchestown in the spring and despite being beaten 12 lengths there, he really caught the eye with the relentless headway he made in the last mile having been left poorly placed.

As a six-year-old, he remains open to improvement and his stable has been in fine form since the start of last month, with a 21% strike-rate in that period.

Recommended:

Lud’or 1:40 Newbury – 1pt win @ 5/1 (general)

Katate Dori 2:55 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (general, 5 places; Boyles 6 places)

Monty’s Star 2:55 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, 6 places; 22/1 Boyles)

Doyen Du Bar 3:35 Newbury – 1pt win @ 15/2 (general)

Jasmin De Grugy 3:15 Newcastle – 2pts win @ 9/2 (general)