AYR SATURDAY

2.35 WILLIAM HILL AYR SILVER CUP HANDICAP 6F

I’m not normally one for generic stats, but in a bid to see if there was an advantage to be gained tactically in the big Ayr sprints, I searched to see how runners in any of the big six-furlong events had made the running on their most recent start and how they performed.

Since 2000, such horses were big in number (105 examples in that period), but remarkably unsuccessful, with not a single confirmed front-runner winning at this meeting in all that time. I had been considering the well-drawn An Saighdiur, who is pretty much the only inveterate pacesetter in the field, but the statistic is off-putting. It’s interesting that when he was placed in this race in 2012 and 2013 he didn’t make the running either in this race or on his previous outing.

That’s not to say that An Saighdiur doesn’t help us to find an angle because he will prove a valuable asset to those racing on the far side, and his class will ensure that he should be in the firing line until the latter stages, making those who race prominently and are drawn low the most attractive options for betting purposes.

That isn’t a very long list, in truth, but Reputation ticks a few boxes and as an improving sort representing a yard hitting form at the right time, he needs to be shortlisted. John Quinn’s charge looked in need of a bigger field and/or stronger pace when runner-up at Newmarket recently and the son of Royal Applause gives the impression he might be ideally suited to the demands of big-field sprint handicaps. He ran well at this meeting last year, but patently failed to stay a mile. He’s quite a free goer, and while he showed that he stays seven furlongs well enough at Goodwood, he left the impression, both there and at Pontefract on his previous start, that an end-to-end gallop at this trip will suit.

The other who appeals is Intisaab, who might well have won with more luck at the Curragh last weekend, and who definitely has the winning of a decent handicap off his current mark. He’s drawn right in the middle, but has the tactical speed to overcome that potentially awkward position, and commands maximum respect as a result.

3.45 WILLIAM HILL AYR GOLD CUP 6F

Brando has a touch of class, and is worth forgiving a rare below-par run in the Nunthorpe last time. There are few of these who could hope to lay a glove on Mecca’s Angel over five furlongs and the Wokingham runner-up has a series of rock-solid runs to his name this season. Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old also has what looks an advantageous draw and plenty of pace to chase with both Watchable and Nameitwhatyoulike sure to blaze a trail on the far side. His ability to race prominently is a big plus in a race of this nature, and his class can see him go very close at anattractive price.

NEWBURY SATURDAY

1.45 DUBAI DUTY FREE LEGACY CUP STAKES (Group 3) 1M 3F 5Y

It’s hard to tell at this stage how badly Newbury’s card will cut up, but it makes sense to concentrate on those who are proven on soft or heavy ground, with Robin Of Navan making plenty of appeal on that score based on his impressive win in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last autumn. He missed the summer after sustaining a ligament injury in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly but made a highly satisfactory comeback when second at Kempton in the September Stakes. That race came a bit too close to the St Leger for Harry Dunlop’s colt to take his chance, but the extra week will be a blessing, and he can take advantage of the weight he receives from older rivals, with fellow three-year-old Algometer looking his chief threat. The Grey Gatsby is the class act among the entries, but he has already been confirmed as a non runner due to conditions.

2.50 DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP 1M 2F 6Y

The fact that Baadi was fitted with a visor for his run in the Shergar Cup last month must be a concern, although not as big a worry as the way he performed there, and it’s no surprise to see him languishing around the bottom of the betting market here. There are reasons to be a bit more optimistic when digging deeper, however, and both the drop in trip, and return to soft ground should be very much in his favour.

Before Ascot, he’d won on easy going at Windsor, the first of those wins coming at this trip, and he has given the impression that he isn’t the strongest of stayers at a mile and a half, so this drop in trip could easily see an improved effort. He’s drawn wide in a big field, but that is historically a positive when the ground gets very testing at Newbury, and with plenty unproven in the mud, he could be underestimated.

One who will relish conditions is Sir Roderic and he’d be interesting but for stamina concerns at the trip; he’s looked best at a mile to date, and weakened late when tried over this trip at Salisbury earlier in the season, albeit having looked the likeliest winner for much of the way. On pedigree, he ought to be worth another try but he could only be backed in hope, rather than confidence.

3.25 DUBAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WORLD TROPHY STAKES (Group 3) 5F 34Y

Spirit Quartz shaped much better than suggested by the bare result in the Flying Five at the Curragh last weekend, and showed that soft ground holds no fears when taking the Abergwaun Stakes at Tipperary before that, so he’s taken to beat a decimated field in this weak Group 3. Very few of his rivals can be said to be fully effective in anticipated conditions and the likes of Muthmir and Priceless have already waved the white flag. Others will follow, and this may not take much winning, with the selection narrowly preferred to last year’s runner-up Ridge Ranger, who proved 12 months ago that she could cope with the mud at this level.

RECOMMENDED

ROBIN OF NAVAN 1.45 Newbury – 2pts win @ 5/2 (general)

BAADI 2.50 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Coral)

REPUTATION 2.35 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, SkyBet, Stan James)

BRANDO 3.45 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)