Ascot Saturday

1.50 “For The Love Of Racing” Handicap Chase 2m 2f 175yds

The going will undoubtedly be heavy at Ascot today, and that either complicates or simplifies analysis, depending on your approach. The simplistic way of looking at this race is that a few in this field have recent winning form on heavy ground, and if concentrating on those we can take a lot of the legwork out of form assessment. I’m slightly wary of that assessment, but given the three with those credentials are all seven or younger, it fits the bill for this contest.

The trio to focus on, then, are Enrichissant, Saint De Vassy and Saint Sonnet, with Gardefort’s better days seemingly behind him, for all he’s the horse who most fits the mudlark definition. I like Enrichissant as a project, but he’s eligible for much weaker races than this, and wants to dominate, so is perhaps biting off a little more than he can chew in 0-150 company.

Saint De Vassy is tempting after putting up a career best on heavy at Exeter on his return, and is definitely shortlist material, but I’m willing to take a chance on Saint Sonnet, who was not really at fault when pulled up in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last weekend, and who was spared a hard race after being badly hampered.

His best form in France was on genuinely testing ground, and he’s been highly tried after winning a novice chase at Catterick on his debut for Paul Nicholls. His seventh in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham was a very good effort for one so inexperienced, with a bad mistake at the 11th seeing him lose a good position when travelling well. He went through that race as if not far behind the principals in terms of ability, and is sure to prove that point another time.

Saint Sonnet will appreciate the move away from Cheltenham after failing to complete there on both starts since. He’s a hard horse for the handicapper to assess, and there is every chance that he’s on a mark that he can exploit.

2.25 Porsche Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 97yds

I’m not sure the Long Walk is a betting race for me, as I am interested in Main Fact in the conditions and think he might well be suited by how the race is run, but his task on paper is much stiffer than anything he’s faced before, and I was hopping for much bigger odds.

To illustrate, he was actually receiving 1lb from Third Wind when beating that rival by two and three-quarter lengths at Haydock last time, but while Third Wind is 33/1 to win this, Main Fact is only 5/1, and that seems to prove that the Pipe horse is expected to be overbet by the public due to his remarkable run of handicap wins.

It’s hard to be adamant that he’s not going to be capable of making further progress, but Fergus Gillard is unable to claim in the Grade 1 event, and he’s effectively going from running off 140 in a handicap to taking on the best in the business at level weights. I could back him, but not at single figures.

3.00 Good Luck Hollie In SPOTY Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 180yds

Plenty of these are proven on very soft ground, but very few could be described as well handicapped. Despite his advancing years, it’s very hard to rule out Regal Encore, who has an excellent record when the mud is flying here, but he’s back on his highest ever winning mark, and his record when running off 150 or higher is P83P1P37, which doesn’t make him hugely appealing.

I was a bit disappointed to have missed the ante-post price about The Conditional, but the more I go through this race, the harder I find it to move away from him. He won on heavy ground at Cheltenham last autumn, and has run really well to be placed twice in the Ladbrokes Trophy, as well as landing the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in March.

All his runs in the past 13 months have come in Grade 3 or listed status, and to have performed so consistently marks him down as a horse to keep on side. He was the only one who made the frame at Newbury not to have a prep run, and it’s logical to expect him to be better for the run there, so he holds a very strong hand having been dropped 1lb for that effort.

3.35 Betfair Exchange Trophy Hurdle (Grade 3) 1m 7f 152yds

Not So Sleepy ran away with this last year when the ground was similar, but it’s debatable whether he can be trusted after his shenanigans in the Fighting Fifth, and when horses start getting cute as he did there, it tends not to be a flash in the pan.

I’ve always liked Buzz, but he ruined his chance of winning this by taking a hike for beating a lesser field over course and distance last month.

Milkwood has been my idea of the winner of this since an unlucky effort in the Gerry Feilden, but he’s unproven on ground this testing, and I’m reluctantly deserting him.

The pick, after much deliberation, is Arrivederci, who was trading short in running when falling at Haydock last time, and he had beaten the Haydock winner War Lord when the pair met at Wetherby the time before.

I think he would have won but for capsizing last time, and the silver lining to that cloud is that he remains on a decent mark, with his Wetherby win franked not only by War Lord but also by the third Shang Tang winning next time. He’s gone up another 2lb with that race being reassessed, but he’s be much higher if he’d kept his feet last time, and his ability to handle the mud is not in question.

Haydock Saturday

2.05 Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f 191yds

War Lord can hopefully pay a compliment to Arrivederci by following up his win at this track in November, and conditions are again in his favour. He is 6lb worse off with Our Power, and in theory that rival should reverse form having gone down by only three and a quarter lengths in third, but it often pays to give extra credit to winners in such circumstances, and I would fancy War Lord to find a bit more if needed.

2.40 Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 3m 1f 125yds

Sojourn has won both of his outings on heavy ground, and was very impressive when spreadeagling his rivals at Carlisle in October. Those rivals included next time out winners The Delray Munky and Roll Again. That was quite a gruelling race, but the idea that it might leave a mark is tempered by those wins, and he’s only 7lb worse off with Roll Again despite beating him by over a furlong there.

It’s very hard to argue against him in light of that, and he looks attractively priced at around 7/2.

Recommended

Saint Sonnet 1.50 Ascot – 2pts win @ 7/1 (general)

The Conditional 3.00 Ascot – 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (general)

Arrivederci 3.35 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365, 8/1 general)

Rory tipped Song For Someone @6/1 last week