Ascot Saturday
1:40 Sodexo Live! Princess
Margaret Stakes (Group 3) 6f
The intriguing aspect of this race is seeing how Royal Ascot form stacks up with the principals coming out of either the Queen Mary Stakes over five furlongs or the course-and-distance Albany Stakes.
Flowerhead fared best of the Queen Mary runners on show here, finishing a fine second to True Love, while the Albany form is represented by Fitzella, who fared best of those to race on the front end (and from the high draws) when fourth to Venetian Sun.
The Queen Mary looks slightly stronger form at this stage, with True Love subsequently slamming the colts in the Railway Stakes, but the distance of this race brings the strands closer together, and while Flowerhead is respected now, Fitzella may represent better value with her yard in fine form and her effort at the Royal Meeting easy enough to mark up.
Drawn 13 in the Albany, she raced away from the placed horses and got a little outpaced mid-race before staying on again. She is capable of dominating here and looks a solid each-way bet in the circumstances.
2:20 Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) 7f 213yd
Of the pair vying for favouritism, I prefer the chances of Chantilly Lace, who ran well when fifth in the Coronation Stakes having filled the same spot in the 1000 Guineas.
She takes a drop in class and has every chance on form, but preference is for American Gal, who offers each-way value now dropping back to a mile.
Ed Walker’s filly had a progressive profile before finishing mid-field in the Prix de Diane last time, and that run is easily forgiven as she was squeezed out when Better Together and She’s Perfect came together in the early strides and her chances of getting competitive were badly compromised as a result.
Whether she stayed the extended mile and a quarter in the ‘Diane’ is open to question in the circumstances, but her best form has come at a mile when winning the Listed Prix de Lilas at Chantilly on her previous start; beaten by Glittering Surf and Bermuda Longtail on her return at Kempton, she shaped best there and was conceding 3lb to the pair who beat her.
It is something of a surprise to see her put in at bigger odds than that pair give she boosted the form of the Kempton contest, while Bermuda Longtail fared better than Glittering Surf when runner-up in the Michael Seely Memorial at York.
3:00 Moet & Chandon
International Handicap 7f
Aalto is able to run from a 1lb lower mark than when just edged out in the Bunbury Cup last time and is the one to beat on the figures, for all two Ascot runs have seen him finish out of the money.
In truth, he shaped pretty well under a penalty in this race 12 months ago and would have finished close up but for meeting interference in the final furlong. He was still only beaten a length and three-quarters and has a similar task this time.
Whether a low draw is a help remains to be seen, however, and the presence of 2024 winner Northern Express in stall 17 is encouraging for those drawn high.
Northern Express made all 12 months ago and is likely to attempt a repeat of those tactics, so should help set the race up for those drawn around him.
At some stage, Lord Bertie is going to pop up in a big handicap and he got a second look here from stall 21. He’s caught the eye the last twice (hood came loose last time) and handles all ground, but his very best efforts have come on soft or heavy.
Preference in these conditions is for stablemate Akkadian Thunder, who has excuses for a poor run in the Bunbury Cup, where he was caught widest of all under hold-up tactics, and he has the beating of a number of these on his previous second in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over course and distance in June.
The pair he split that day, Never So Brave and Holguin, have franked the form handsomely since, and although 4lb higher, Akkadian Thunder is entitled to go very close with this course and distance bringing out the best in him.
He’s run three times over track and trip and has been runner-up twice in similar handicaps, with his other run a creditable eighth in the Challenge Cup last October when he had no luck at all in running.
He’s not fully exposed on turf, with two wins and three places from just seven runs at seven furlongs on such a surface, and he may yet have more to offer.
3:35 Betfred Handicap 1m
Mythical Guest is a reliable sort who has been placed on both his previous starts over course and distance and looks likely to repay each-way support again.
George Margarson’s five-year-old has gained both his handicap wins over 10 furlongs on quick ground, but his best efforts on the figures have come in well-run mile events, as when two and a half lengths third of 10 to Unassuming and Jimmy Speaking in an apprentice contest on his most recent start.
He arguably made his effort too soon and the form was boosted when the runner-up won a Racing League handicap at Yarmouth on Thursday from a 2lb higher mark.
4:10 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1)
1m 3f 211yd
The tactics seem easy enough to predict, with Continuous likely to set a solid pace for Jan Brueghel, with Rebel’s Romance and Kalpana likely to stalk the pace and Calandagan held up for a late run.
I don’t think Continuous could go too fast even if he were stung by a bee, but he is unlikely to set a slow tempo with his stablemate wanting this to be a true test, as it was when Jan Brueghel outbattled Calandagan in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
The French gelding has redeemed his reputation since in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, but he will again find the St Leger hero a tougher rival than Aventure, for all that filly is top class on her day.
There is nothing Jan Brueghel likes more than a street brawl and he relished the battle at Epsom under Ryan Moore.
If Calandagan is to triumph, he needs to dispatch Jan Brueghel, to quote the undertaker Monsieur Alfonse from Allo Allo, “swiftly and with style”, as if he lets himself get involved in another fight, I can only see one victor.
Ryan Moore will be aware that Calandagan is capable of inflicting a fatal blow if allowed to have one thrust at the leaders, so he will try to ensure that he draws his main rival into a prolonged tussle, which favours the Ballydoyle horse.
Only a rare miscalculation from Moore or a below-par Jan Brueghel will allow the others to steal the prize, accepting that both Kalpana and Rebel’s Romance are thoroughly likeable performers who will happily pick up the pieces in the unlikely event that the race doesn’t go to script.
York Saturday
2:00 Sky Bet Dash
Handicap (Class 2) 6f
Rock Opera has been running well in similar events without winning, remains on a workable handicap mark and has a good draw in stall 3 here, so ticks many of the right boxes and gets the vote despite some concerns over the form of the Richard Fahey stable.
Rock Opera was an excellent third here in May despite a wide draw and has remained in form since, with the visor he wore retained on recent starts. He is a hostage to fortune over six furlongs as he tends to be slow to gather stride and needs a strong pace to allow him to close up late.
As a result, his win record is modest, but he usually rewards each-way support, as when seventh here behind Aberama Gold a fortnight ago.
That run might suggest he’s up against it here, but he was going on well at the finish in a race where the first four home were separated by necks.
Slightly easier ground suits, as it helps him maintain his mid-race position and he is expected to be cutting through horses in the latter stages, as is his wont.
The concern is stable form, with Fahey just 3-69 in the past fortnight, which tempers confidence, but it’s worth noting that the sheer size of the Fahey yard means that the strike-rate tends to suffer in the middle of the summer.
Rock Opera does look poised to strike based on recent runs, so is worth chancing, albeit with stakes reduced slightly.
2:40 Sky Bet York Stakes
(Group 2) 1m 2f 56yd
I find it very hard to oppose Almaqam, who was an unlucky third to Al Aasy in the Gordon Richards Stakes on his return before beating Ombudsman over the same track and trip in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last time.
Ombudsman couldn’t get past a game Almaqam at Sandown, but made the form look all the better when landing the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He probably improved a bit for that return and was conceding 3lb to the winner in the Brigadier Gerard, but there is no denying that the form of that contest is strong for the grade, with the front pair four lengths and further clear of Phantom Flight, Military Order and Enfjaar.
Almaqam had missed Royal Ascot to wait for some ease underfoot, which he will get here, and to my eye, he looks head and shoulders above his rivals at this level, with a return to York for the Group 1 International Stakes next month surely the masterplan for this talented colt.
Recommended:
Fitzella 1:40 Ascot – 1pt e/w 11/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet – 4 places)
American Gal 2:20 Ascot – 1pt e/w 14/1 (Bet365, 12/1 Paddy Power, Sky Bet - 4 places)
Akkadian Thunder 3:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w 6/1 (general – 6 places)
Mythical Guest 3:35 Ascot – 1pt e/w 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor – ¼ odds 4 places)
Jan Brueghel 4:10 Ascot – 1pt win 15/8 (Bet365, 7/4 general)
Almaqam 2:40 York – 2pts win Evens (Hills, 10/11 general)
Rory’s recommended bets last week included winners:
Anthelia at 11/2 and Broughshane at 6/1