HOW important can a good draw be? There was plenty of discussion in Britain last month when a horse drawn in stall 12 at Wolverhampton was declared a non-runner by his trainer for the excuse of ‘bad draw’ and, if a good starting position is a factor at that lowly level, it certainly can play a key role in determining the outcome of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.05).

When weighing up a field of 17 runners, nearly all top-class middle-distance performers from around the globe, coming towards the end of what can be a long season for many - and facing testing autumn ground - you need as many variables in your favour as possible around ParisLongchamp for this test.

Recent history tells us that being drawn low is an obvious boost. Seven of the last eight renewals of the Arc have been won by horses drawn between stalls two and eight. In the year that did not feature a winner from that sub-stall-eight sweetspot, horses drawn in stalls two and three finished second and third.

In fact, since 1992, no stall has produced more winners than gate six (six winners, and home to 50/1 outsider Leffard this year), followed by four winners apiece for stalls two and three. Prominent fancies Daryz and Sosie will start from there in 2025. Long story short, inside stall eight or lower seems like exactly where you would want to be. What about big-race favourite Minnie Hauk, though?

She’s been given stall one, where only one winner has emerged in at least 50 years. She hasn’t been known to make the running and Aidan O’Brien has been adamant that we will only get to see the best of her when racing off a tempo that is properly strong. Could that cause problems when challenging from behind runners down the inner?

Irish punters could easily have flashbacks to Tarnawa, who had to switch for a clear run when a close second to Torquator Tasso in 2021. Things got tight for her in the straight from stall three under Christophe Soumillon.

The bare statistic of more than 50 Arc renewals in the modern era only producing one winner from stall one may be offputting for some, but it’s worth looking a little deeper into that headline figure.

Familiar territory

The last to pull off the feat was the mighty Zarkava in 2008. Like Minnie Hauk, she’s ridden by Soumillon and is a three-year-old filly out to take advantage of a 10lb pull at the weights with older colts.

What’s more, she was the only Arc favourite to run from stall one at ParisLongchamp since 2004, and the starting prices of the majority who have filled that gate since would exactly have suggested that any more winners from the box seat would have been a surprise. Ten of the 14 horses drawn in one for the ParisLongchamp feature since Zarkava were sent off double-figure prices, including six massive outsiders ranging from 46/1 to 150/1 (as well as others at 20/1 and 33/1). Stall one hasn’t generally had big chances running for it.

If you’re looking for encouragement about Minnie Hauk’s claims, Youmzain was second to Sea The Stars in 2009 from the inside draw, In Swoop was only beaten a neck in second from the same gate in 2020, Westover was runner-up from stall one in 2023 and Sottsass came third from there in 2019.

Even the likes of 150/1 shot Haya Landa finished fourth from the inside gate in 2012, while before Zarkava’s time, Cherry Mix was runner-up at 33/1 in the 2004 renewal from stall one. Minnie Hauk heads to Paris with much stronger credentials, on paper at least, than those runners.

Having finished second in a 15-runner maiden on her two-year-old debut at Cork last autumn, Coolmore’s Oaks heroine has been running in relatively small fields all season. She beat six rivals in the Cheshire Oaks, eight at Epsom, six in the Irish Oaks and just three in the Yorkshire Oaks.

’Easy to ride’

Asked about the demands of now taking on a considerably bigger line-up, Aidan O’Brien said: “Obviously, you can never be certain of anything beforehand, but she’s very straightforward and easy to ride. She’s always happy to go forward, very uncomplicated. She travels strongly and has plenty of stamina.

“At Epsom, there was a big field and she coped very well. She has early speed and usually finds a good position quite easily. So yes, I hope she will handle it well.”

The Ballydoyle maestro added: “Between the Curragh and York, we felt she had improved again in her work, and that was confirmed on the day of the race. She’s progressing slowly but surely, without interruption. Her last piece of work was excellent. Christophe sat on her at the weekend. It was his first time on her, and he seemed very happy with her as well.”