GIVEN we went through a period of nine British-trained winners of the Randox Grand National (4.00) in 10 runnings from 2008 to 2017, it makes for quite remarkable reading to see the prices listed for various types of Irish success in today’s feature event at Aintree.
Paddy Power make it a 4/11 chance that the winner of this year’s renewal is trained in Ireland, and an Irish-trained 1-2-3 is only 7/4. If you fancy making that an Irish 1-2-3-4, you’ll only get a shade bigger odds at 3/1, while a clean sweep of visiting runners in the first five places is just 5/1.
What a change that is from 2021, when Irish representatives filled nine of the first 10 places and the Betfair Sportsbook priced up an Irish 1-2-3-4-5 at 66/1. But for the home team’s Iroko running on into fourth last year, the first nine would have all been trained this side of the Irish Sea too.
There is definitely the strength in numbers to deliver a similar outcome this year. Of the 34 runners in the line-up, 22 - nearly 65% of the whole field - are Irish-trained. That said, a glance at the head of the market tells you that some of the biggest domestic hopes will have to underperform in order for another sweep of the boards by the visiting squad. It points to limited value in some of those special markets now.
After Wednesday’s declaration stage, Panic Attack was nibbled at into third favourite for the race, and she was joint-favourite altogether with some firms yesterday. Also prominent in the market were Iroko, Jagwar and Johnnywho - all trained in Britain. That meant that as the markets settled down after declarations, four of the top six in the market were trained in Britain.
If recent history is to repeat itself, that could leave value for some bigger-priced Irish runners to reach the frame. The head of the betting is also centred around J.P. McManus’ squad. The champion owner is 6/4 to have this year’s Grand National winner, and 8/1 to be responsible for the 1-2-3. It goes up to 20/1 for a 1-2-3-4.
Mullins’ masterpiece
As for Willie Mullins, who could forget the scene in last year’s race when he saddled the first three home - as well as five of the first seven horses across the line. Five of his string led the field over the last fence, and he could have gotten even closer to a possible 1-2-3-4 had the saddle not slipped back at the start on eventual seventh Minella Cocooner.
Mullins is 7/4 to train this year’s winner and, considering he has eight of the field (almost a quarter of all runners) - including prominent market fancies I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West - that probably represents more value than some of the Irish-only specials.
He’s just 10/1 to have the 1-2-3 again this year with Paddy Power, having originally been priced at 6/1. However, William Hill have taken a totally different view on Mullins and McManus.
They go 33/1 about a Mullins-trained 1-2-3 and 25/1 about McManus to do the same. It will take another monstrous performance to make either of these possibilities come to life, but those odds look too big based on the quality of horses both men have running for him. It could be a sporting bet to have several well-fancied horses running for you.