ParisLongchamp Sunday \ James Crispe
3.05 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ no geldings) 1m 4f
Dermot Weld can crown his storied training career at with a first Arc victory courtesy of Tarnawa.
It is almost 40 years since Weld took out a licence and fully three decades since he saddled his first Arc runner, Blue Wind. And it is fair to say that his record in the Paris showpiece is modest, especially for a man who has pioneered intercontinental travel with famous triumphs in Australia and North America.
Blue Wind finished 15th and the master of Rosewell House has had only seven further Arc contenders, none doing better than the fifth place Vinnie Roe managed behind Dalakhani in 2003.
Alhough the septet has included three Derby winners, none has had the credentials of Tarnawa, winner of both of her previous outings on the Bois de Boulogne, proven on firm ground and heavy.
Autumn campaign
Intentionally kept fresh for an autumn campaign, her only two 2021 starts have been a six-and-a-half-length saunter in the Ballyroan Stakes followed by an excellent three-quarter-length second in the Irish Champion Stakes, when she was both carried right across the track by the winner, St Mark’s Basilica, and disadvantaged by coming from last place in a slowly run race over a trip short of her best.
A year on from suffering the torment of being forced to withdraw all of his Arc weekend runners because of a batch of contaminated feed, Aidan O’Brien comes into this year’s fixture following a best-ever French season which has featured no less than three classic victories.
Yet his three-pronged Arc challenge is less powerful than it might have been – Love has lost much of her lustre since being the early ante-post favourite for last year’s renewal and Broome has won just two of his 12 career attempts at Group 2 level or above.
Below peak
Worst of all, Snowfall, having looked to be clearly the best three-year-old filly in Europe during the summer, ran so far below her peak when beaten in the Prix Vermeille over this course and distance three weeks ago that she barely got past her pacemaker, La Joconde.
Put a line through that run and she has outstanding claims. Yet she had no real excuse on the day and it appears that nothing has subsequently come to light to explain her underperformance.
At least, following her incredible 16-length victory on a rain-soaked surface in the Oaks at Epsom, testing ground holds no fears for Snowfall.
Love, by contrast, was actually scratched from this race last year even before the feed issue came to light, once it became inevitable that it would take place on heavy ground.
Soft underfoot conditions should be of no concern to connections of the four-strong British raiding party, which consists entirely of three-year-old colts and is led by Charlie Appleby’s classic-winning Frankel-sired duo of Adayar and Hurricane Lane, who between them hoovered up five Group 1s during the summer.
They have met once before, Adayar prevailing by almost eight lengths in the Derby. Hurricane Lane is better suited to ParisLongchamp than Epsom, as he proved when lifting the Grand Prix de Paris, but the fact that he took so long to engage overdrive when landing the Irish Derby and had no problem lasting one mile, six and a half furlongs in the St Leger, suggests he may lack the necessary finishing kick.
Tactical speed
Adayar showed a real turn of foot to slip through against the inside rail coming out of Tattenham Corner in the Derby and looks to have more tactical speed than his stablemate.
His King George victory was boosted by the runner-up, Mishriff, going on to land the Juddmonte International and he can provide Tarnawa’s stiffest challenge.
Mishriff, beaten a length and three-quarters in the King George, provides an interesting form line to the pick of the two Japanese visitors, Chrono Genesis, who suffered a little trouble-in-running prior to losing out by a neck to Mishriff in Dubai in March.
Japanese mare
Chrono Genesis has since landed a Grade 1 event in her homeland with great authority and she could be the one to finally bring Japan’s long quest for a yearned-for first Arc triumph to a successful conclusion. But the combination of that Dubai form, and the thought that soft ground will not be to her taste, lead me to think that she may come up short.
An emaciated home team, numbering just four, is headed by Raabihah, who broke a 13-month win drought in the Group 2 Prix de Pomone last time but will do well to improve upon last year’s fifth place.
SELECTION: TARNAWA
Next best: Adayar