Rory Delargy

EPSOM SATURDAY

4:30 INVESTEC DERBY (1M4F10Y)

It’s hard to imagine many classics which have looked so open in the weeks leading up to the race, and the possible contenders, rather than being whittled down in recent days, has grown with a quartet including likely favourite Wings of Desire supplemented at the 11th hour.

John Gosden’s charge is a son of Pivotal from the family of Oaks winner Sariska, and burst to the head of the market when beating Deauville in the Dante at York. That race was run on quick ground, however, and it may be that both winner and second turn out to be better performers when hearing their hooves rattle, although it’s early days to be making a hard and fast judgement.

The Dante was well run and again looks the most reliable trial to have been run, but contenders have been crawling out of the woodwork in many guises, with Ulysses, the winner of a lowly maiden at Newbury last month, the subject of sustained ante-post support.

It’s a long time since Morston became the last horse to graduate straight from maiden company to Derby glory, and Sir Michael Stoute’s challenger, a son of Oaks heroine Light Shift has more to do than the market suggests. Also from the family of Light Shift is Andre Fabre’s Cloth of Stars, and his claims are much more solid, with the latest of three group-race wins coming in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint Cloud.

US Army Ranger is even more inexperienced than Ulysses, having won a maiden on his racecourse debut as recently as April. He was all out to get the better of stablemate Port Douglas in the Chester Vase, and needs to improve simply to confirm that form. He’s virtually certain to take the step forward required to be competitive, but has been well found in the market since that maiden win, and represents poor value unless taking a walk in the market.

Moonlight Magic merits respect having beaten Shogun in the Derrinstown Stud Trial at Leopardsown, but Jim Bolger’s colt has drawn stall one, which means he’ll be racing round the outside when the field takes an initial move to the right after leaving the stalls. That will make it difficult for him to gain a good track position, and it’s possible that his victim at Leopardstown could turn the tables despite his status as one of the rank outsiders.

Shogun has hinted that there is much more to come from him, and while most of his racing has been done at a mile, he looks a stayer on running style, and would be my idea of the most appealing each-way bet in the race. Harzand and Idaho are closely matched on Ballysax form, although the latter was behind Moonlight Magic and Shogun last time, which merely underlines that there is little to choose between the lot of them.

One horse who appears massively overpriced on racecourse evidence is Massaat, who was second to Air Force Blue (remember him?) in the Dewhurst, and proved he’d trained on really well with a staying on second in the 2000 Guineas. He is the highest rated horse in the race according to the official handicapper, and given his record at Group 1 level, that’s hard to argue with.

He remains open to further improvement, promises to be better suited by a mile and a quarter than shorter, and races as if he’ll be capable of getting the Derby distance.

With all that under consideration, it’s mystifying that he’s as big as 16/1 in the betting, and while this race is a proper conundrum, those odds looks much too big about a good-looking horse with proven class and a progressive profile.

2:00 INVESTEC PRIVATE BANKING STAKES (1M2F18Y)

It may appear that Bathos is fully exposed having had no less than 10 starts in handicaps, but this big, rangy son of Poet’s Voice is actually a work in progress, and typical of the modus operandi of his trainer. Bred to stay middle distances, his initial juvenile campaign came over trips too short for him and at a time when he had yet to grow into his strapping frame.

As a result, he went into nurseries off a mark much lower than he might have, and he has been able to progress through the ranks while maturing all the time. He has reached his limit at a mile judged on his defeat at Haydock in May, but found further progress for a step up in trip at Goodwood last time. He tackles a mile and a quarter for the first time here, and the signs are that he will relish it, giving him another chance to keep the handicapper at arm’s length.

Of his opponents, Cartago fared best of those to have contested the London Gold Cup at Newbury, and deserves his place in the market having run into a group performer there, but it wouldn’t be wise to completely ignore Gawdalpin, who was well held in that event, but had looked uncomfortable from the second the stalls opened, and whose earlier second at Bath makes him look well handicapped. The chances are that he will need to drop in grade to take advantage of his mark, but it would not be a huge surprise to see him outrun massive odds.

2:35 PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES (1M114Y)

The domestic challenge for this fillies’ event does not look strong, and if the impeccably bred Sayana can cope with the Epsom gradients, she ought to be very hard to beat. She made all to land a listed event at Chantilly four weeks ago, and while that form puts her only on a par with a few of her rivals here, she has plenty of scope for further progress, and merits her billing as an odds-on favourite.

3:10 QUEEN ELIZABETH II CORONATION CUP (1M4F10Y)

Postponed is another warm favourite on the Derby undercard, and while he has the best form on offer having won the Dubai Sheema Classic in March, his domestic form suggests he’s got nothing at all in hand of a pair of top-notch fillies in Found and Simple Verse. Found was probably not suited by the tempo of the Tattersalls Gold Cup on her latest start, but defeat at the hands of Champion Stakes winner Fascinating Rock needs no excuse. The daughter of Galileo thrived on a busy campaign last term, and looks capable of better again this time around. That’s a comment which also applies to Simple Verse, who improved throughout her three-year-old campaign, and showed real tenacity to win a controversial St Leger. She had a penalty to shoulder when second in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return, and that effort gives her every chance here. With improvement likely, she is sure to be in the mix again, and it could well be that the pair dominate. Postponed is opposable at the prices, with the fact that he’s spent the early part of the year in Dubai not necessarily a positive to his chances on this belated return to the UK.

3:45 INVESTEC CORPORATE BANKING ‘DASH’ (5F)

There is a perceived bias towards the stands rail in five-furlong sprints at Epsom, but the plain facts are that the lowest five stalls produce more winners than the highest five, partly because the track is fairer than it is given credit for, and partly because an unseemly rush for the rail causes all sorts of traffic problems for those among the stands-side runners.

Those who have the speed to take a good position towards the centre of the track tend to do well, and this is illustrated by the fact that the last seven runnings of the Dash have seen stall one produce a winner and three placed horses.

The trio who were unplaced, incidentally, were all rank outsiders (Betfair SP of 50 or bigger), and it’s fair to say that landing the lowest stall number is more of a blessing than a curse. That’s reason enough to back Harry Hurricane even without considering his impressive last-time-out win at York, where he posted a very quick time despite being eased in the last 100 yards. He is overpriced by dint of the misunderstood draw bias, and arguably in form terms too, so is crying out to be backed each way, with his prospects of an uninterrupted passage making the place part of the bet especially generous.

RECOMMENDED

BATHOS 2.00 Epsom - 1pt Win @ 12/1 (General)

FOUND 3.10 Epsom - 1pt Win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Coral)

HARRY HURRICANE 3.45 Epsom - 1pt E/W @ 12/1 (Various)

MASSAAT 4.30 Epsom - 2pts Win @ 16/1 (General)