IT’S that time of year. The First Saturday in May. The Kentucky Derby.
And it’s time for our annual “Why he’ll win. Why he won’t win” for the 151st Run for the Roses.
If you’re checking our notes from last year…
3. Mystik Dan
Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.
Why he’ll win? Stamina, poised jockey and if it rains…
Why he won’t win? Finished behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel in previous matches.
Mystik Dan used all his stamina, Brian Hernandez was poised as John Wayne walking into a saloon, and it did indeed rain.
Now, here goes. And, yes, there is rain in the forecast.
1. Citizen Bull
Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia
Why he’ll win? The speed of the speed. The inside post simplifies the task. Go.
Why he won’t win? There will be 19 horses breathing down his neck and, bottom line, he hasn’t progressed after a dominant two-year-old campaign.
2. Neoequos
Saffie Joseph Jr./Flavien Prat
Why he’ll win? Plenty of speed and drew outside Citizen Bull.
Why he won’t win? There will be 18 horses breathing down his neck.
3. Final Gambit
Brad Cox/Luan Machado
Why he’ll win? By the irrepressible Not This Time. Plenty of stamina. Trainer rarely gets it wrong. Rounding into form.
Why he won’t win? Makes his dirt debut after four starts on turf and synthetic. It’s hard to endorse any horse doing something for the first time in the cauldron of the Kentucky Derby.
5. American Promise
D. Wayne Lukas/Nik Juarez
Why he’ll win? Comes out of his best effort, a dominant win in the Virginia Derby and it’s about time for D. Wayne Lukas to win another Derby.
Why he won’t win? Seven losses in nine starts behind the likes of Chunk Of Gold, Sandman, Tiztastic and Burnham Square.
6. Admire Daytona
Yukihiro Kato/Christophe Lemaire
Why he’ll win? Stretched to a mile and a furlong and a half to win the UAE Derby, his best effort in a six-race career and it’s a matter of time before the Japanese win the Derby.
Why he won’t win? The UAE Derby hasn’t exactly become a key race in the Kentucky Derby victory call.
6. Luxor Cafe
Noriyuki Hori/ João Moreira
Why he’ll win? As thoroughbred racing becomes more international, it’s about time for a Derby with the global flare of this one. Rides a four-race win streak into this, including two wins at 1 1/8 miles.
Why he won’t win? Jet lag…
8. Journalism
Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli
Why he’ll win? The fastest, most established horse in the race with four straight wins, all accomplished with tactical rallies. Stamina-pedigree. Sharp connections.
Why he won’t win? Regressed, numbers-wise from the San Felipe to the Santa Anita Derby.
9. Burnham Square
Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.
Why he’ll win? Did you see Hernandez’s ride last year?
Why he won’t win? Couldn’t match Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth.
<11. Flying Mohawk
Whit Beckman/Joseph Ramos
Why he’ll win? Crafty trainer on his way in the game.
Why he won’t win? Another one making his dirt debut in the toughest dirt race in the world. Blinkers off, nothing worse than tinkering with equipment for the biggest races.
12. East Avenue
Brendan Walsh/Manny Franco
Why he’ll win? Talented horse who hit two rumble strips, got a wake-up call from his trainer and is rounding back into form which sent him off favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Why he won’t win? There is nowhere to hide with a horse who still needs to prove he’s more than a one-dimensional front runner.
<2B>13. Publisher
Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he’ll win? It’s time the winningmost trainer in history breaks his Kentucky Derby duck. And the jockey simply wins.
Why he won’t win? He’s still a maiden after seven tries.
14. Tiztastic
Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario
Why he’ll win? See above. The ever-patient, ever-poised Rosario already has one Derby win.
Last race was his best race, a rallying win in the Louisiana Derby going a mile and three sixteenths.
Why he won’t win? Finished behind Coal Battle and Sandman in previous encounters.
15. Render Judgment
Ken McPeek/Julien Leparoux Jr.
Why he’ll win? McPeek magic…
Why he won’t win? Owns just one win in seven starts and hasn’t threatened since that win way back in October.
16. Coal Battle
Lonnie Briley/Juan Vargas
Why he’ll win? The little guy of all little guys wins the race of the year and creates the story of the century.
Why he won’t win? Fairytales are hard to write in real life.
17. Sandman
Mark Casse/Jose Ortiz
Why he’ll win? Well-bred colt has continued to improve, topping off his preparation with an easy win in the Arkansas Derby over Publisher and Coal Battle. One of the all-time great riders deserves a Derby.
Why he won’t win? He’ll need racing luck ducking and jiving through traffic.
18. Sovereignty
Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado
Why he’ll win? Because I said he would in these pages way back in December.
Why he won’t win? Have you seen my Derby record?
19. Chunk Of Gold
Ethan West/Jareth Loveberry
Why he’ll win? Inexperienced colt with a two-turn dirt pedigree is rounding into form.
Why he won’t win? Because $2,500 yearlings don’t win the Derby.
20. Owen Almighty
Brian Lynch/Javier Castellano
Why he’ll win? Somehow clears the field from the outside post and there’s a Foinavon behind him.
Why he won’t win? Cool horse but in deep trying to stretch his speed to 10 furlongs.
21. Baeza
John Shirreffs/Flavien Prat
Why he’ll win? Lightly raced, brought along the right way and improving with every start.
Prat, who goes here if he draws in, is a genius. And the trainer, another genius, won the Derby with Giacomo. Yes, Giacomo, a 102.60 shocker.
Why he won’t win? He needed a late scratch to get in the race. And, if you’re looking it up the history, his name was Rich Strike.
The race is on Sky Racing at 11.57pm this evening
1. Sovereignty
2. Baeza
3. Luxor Café
4. Journalism