IT’S that time of year. The first Saturday in May. The Kentucky Derby. And time for the annual “Why he’ll win? Why he won’t win?”
Too many races, too few races. Over the top, undercooked. Inside post, outside draw. Stamina laden, speed oriented. Luckless, lucky. Tested, talented.
And, if you’re checking our notes from last year… please, please, check out notes from last year.
18 Sovereignty
Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado
Why he’ll win? Because I said he would in these pages way back in December.
Why he won’t win? Have you seen my Derby record?
My Derby record improved with a facile score by Sovereignty. And, for the record, I’ve never felt so confident in a Derby winner. Ever. So, perhaps, tread lightly this year. Perhaps.
1 Renegade
Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he’ll win? Talented colt trounced seven rivals in the Arkansas Derby in his most recent start. First-ballot Hall of Fame jockey picked the battle-tested millionaire over two others who are 6/1 in here. Now, that was before the post-position draw.
Why he won’t win? Did we mention the post position? Like getting thrown down a well while others are dropping bowling balls and told to climb your way out. Quickly.
2 Albus
Riley Mott/Manny Franco
Why he’ll win? Pace meltdown in front and talented jockey weaves his way through traffic.
Why he won’t win? Simply not fast enough so far.
3 Intrepido
Jeff Mullins/Hector Berrios
Why he’ll win? Have you watched Miracle? Anything’s possible…
Why he won’t win? A 50/1 shot on a three-race losing streak, including a 10-length drubbing behind two Derby rivals. Come on, man.
4 Litmus Test
Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia
Why he’ll win? Bob Baffert wins Derbys. Okay, that’s it. That’s all I’ve got.
Why he won’t win? Finished 12 and a half lengths behind Renegade in the Arkansas Derby when Baffert removed blinkers. They go back on for the Derby, not exactly a show of strength.
5 Right To Party - Non Runner
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6 Commandment
Brad Cox/Luis Saez
Why he’ll win? Winner of his last four starts, including two hard-fought photo finishes in Florida’s big preps. Tactician Luis Saez rides a tactical horse for the first time.
Why he won’t win? Too many hard races have taken their toll and we’ve already seen his best.
7 Danon Bourbon
Manabu Ikezoe/Atsuya Nishimura
Why he’ll win? Undefeated in three starts and it’s just a matter of time before the Japanese win the world’s greatest race.
Why he won’t win? If Forever Young couldn’t do it…
8 So Happy
Mark Glatt/Mike Smith
Why he’ll win? The 59-year-old Hall of Fame jockey turns back time one more time on a horse who is 3-for-4, including a daylight win in the Santa Anita Derby.
Why he won’t win? California contingent doesn’t look stellar this year.
9 The Puma
Gustavo Delgado/Javier Castellano
Why he’ll win? The team who brought you Mage does it again with the Tampa Bay Derby winner.
Why he won’t win? Just one win in four starts, all since Jan 10th.
10 Wonder Dean
Daisuke Takayanagi/Ryusei Sakai
Why he’ll win? While many lack seasoning, the Japanese-bred colt has already navigated five races at a mile and a furlong or farther and comes off a win in the UAE Derby.
Why he won’t win? Have you seen the record of UAE Derby winners?
11 Incredibolt
Riley Mott/Jaime Torres
Why he’ll win? Beautiful work over the surface this week. Impressive when drawing off in the Virginia Derby back in March. 2-for-2 over the track, including the Street Sense (Sovereignty’s domain) in October. Bill Mott’s son wins the Kentucky Derby in his first try, hey, that’s a story.
Why he won’t win? Has yet to face the quality of the rivals he’ll face Saturday and still needs to improve to land a big blow.
12 Chief Wallabee
Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado
Why he’ll win? Been there. Done that. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado at the helm. Stamina-laden colt who is rounding into form at the right time.
Mott adds blinkers, which when he does it, somehow adds confidence. If he stayed inside in the Florida Derby, he would have trounced Commandment and The Puma.
Why he won’t win? He’s no Sovereignty.
13 Silent Tactic - Non-runner
14 Potente
Bob Baffert/Juan Hernandez
Why he’ll win? Lightly-raced colt, a $2.4 million yearling purchase, who could still be improving for a potent stable.
Won his first two races, then lost the Santa Anita Derby, which made a man of him.
Why he won’t win? Rush job, makes fourth start of his career, all since Jan 31st, not a Baffert blueprint.
14 Emerging Market
Chad Brown/Flavien Prat
Why he’ll win? Training like a metronome. Talented colt with two wins in two starts.
Crafty jockey. Canny trainer usually waits for the Preakness with his under-seasoned horses, this shows confidence and conviction. Value at 15/1.
Why he won’t win? Lacks seasoning to tackle this kind of test this early in his career.
16 Pavlovian
Doug O’Neill/Edwin Maldonado
Why he’ll win? California-bred has been tested in 10 starts, speed to get a position, just missed to Emerging Market.
Why he won’t win? Two wins in 10 starts, mostly against restricted company.
17 Six Speed
Bhupat Seemar/Brian Hernandez Jr.
Why he’ll win? The jockey is a magician at Churchill Downs.
Why he won’t win? Not enough rabbits in this hat.
18 Further Ado
Brad Cox/John Velazquez
Why he’ll win? Bouncing over the track this week, impressive breeze and gets the services of dual-winning jockey and Hall of Famer. And, hey, look at that number (Sovereignty’s 18).
Why he won’t win? Ran too fast in the Blue Grass on April 4th. Ortiz had his choice and opted for Renegade.
19 Golden Tempo
Cherie DeVaux/Jose Ortiz
Why he’ll win? No jockey as good as Jose Ortiz can go his whole career without winning the Derby. Stamina-laden Phipps Stable pedigree, capable trainer, improving little by little in every start. Superfecta horse.
Why he won’t win? Will need a perfect trip from the back of a deep field. Couldn’t run down Emerging Market or Pavlovian in the Louisiana Derby.
20 Fulleffort - Non-runner
21 Great White
John Ennis/Alex Achard
Why he’ll win? Cue the Jaws music. Trained by Meath native John Ennis.
Why he won’t win? Faded and finished 22 and a quarter-length behind Further Ado in the Blue Grass.
22 Ocelli
Whit Beckman/Joe Ramos
Why he’ll win? One-run closer breaking from the outside, slides over, saves ground and picks up the pieces. Not impossible for the bottom of a super high five.
Why he won’t win? Needed two scratches to get into the race. Maidens don’t win Derbys. Yes, he’s still a maiden.
23 Robusta
Doug O’Neill/Emisael Jaramillo
Why he’ll win? 22 late scratches…
Why he won’t win? Finished 16 lengths behind So Happy, who can’t win, in the Santa Anita Derby.
Selections:
1. Chief Wallabee,
2. Emerging Market,
3. Incredibolt.
The Churchill Downs card is live on Sky Sports Racing with the Derby off at 11.57am.