3.40 Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) 1m 4f

Bay Colony: Limerick maiden winner two starts ago who finished down the field in listed company last time. Rating of 85 means it’d be a shock if she was fighting out the finish.

Butterfly Wings: Won a Leopardstown maiden in May but safely held in blacktype company three times since. Only rated 83 and tough to make any sort of case for her upsetting her chief stablemate.

Island Hopping: Looks the Ballydoyle second-string on jockey bookings and is now tried in first-time cheekpieces. Possibly didn’t get home over two furlongs further than this at Fairyhouse last week when fifth in a Group 3. Rated 21lb inferior to Minnie Hauk.

Merrily: Caused a 25/1 upset in a Newmarket Group 3 last year and hasn’t really jumped forward from there, albeit she has been set tough tasks in the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. Longer trip needs to bring out improvement.

Minnie Hauk: Looks extremely tough to beat on the basis of her gritty victory over subsequent Pretty Polly Stakes heroine Whirl in the Oaks at Epsom six weeks ago. Proven at the distance and is now in weaker company than previously.

Subsonic: Promising introduction at Leopardstown in October when beaten half a length by Minnie Hauk but was disappointing on the face of it when sixth in an extended-10-furlong maiden at Naas on her only run this term. That said, she did lack racing room. Big ask for a maiden in a classic but open to more improvement than most, and possible connections may be rewarded with blacktype.

Wemightakedlongway: The clear second best in the line-up on all known form. Beaten five and a quarter lengths by Minnie Hauk when fourth in the Oaks and filled the same position when down to 10 furlongs in the Pretty Polly Stakes last time, though she did shape there as though she was worth a try back at this distance (having weakened late at Epsom previously). Rated 6lb inferior to the favourite but at least 12lb higher than everything else in the field.

Conclusion

We’d love for this to be a more competitive classic but Minnie Hauk will have to run some way below her best form not to complete the Epsom-Curragh double. She’s reached a standard that only Wemightakedlongway could possibly think about achieving on all known form so far, and it’s tough to find obvious negatives. If the trip does prove a little beyond the ideal for Wemightakedlongway, it might be Subsonic that picks up pieces for third at a big price, for all that she’s a maiden who needs to bounce back from being beaten seven and a half lengths in a maiden last time. It’s that type of race this year.