AFTER a period of continued watering to ensure safe ground during a dry spell, conditions look set to open up considerably at Fairyhouse this weekend with the arrival of heavy rain in recent days.

That puts a much different slant on the big race than might have been expected earlier this week. Expect a strong stamina test after significant rainfall on already watered ground.

Haiti Couleurs, a comprehensive winner of the National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, has stuck out like a sore thumb since the weights were published for the BoyleSports Irish Grand National. Racing off just 6lb higher than when winning by four and a half lengths in a competitive, £100,000 handicap at the biggest meeting of the year, it certainly appears to be a rise on the lenient side.

For context, of the 14 handicap chases run in Ireland this season that had a prize of at least €40,000 to the winner, the average weight rise for the winning horse is 9.2lb. Even the likes of the similarly unexposed Backtonormal garnered a 12lb rise for winning by three and a quarter lengths at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Long story short, Rebecca Curtis’ Welsh raider looks well handicapped and fits a likeable profile for the race, being an unexposed chaser who races prominently and can establish a fine rhythm with his jumping. There’s little reason why he shouldn’t be bang there.

Would his margin of victory at Cheltenham have been so decisive but for the departure of Now Is The Hour at the second last, though? I’m not so sure.

The ground definitely would have been quicker than ideal for him there and he still travelled well enough in the circumstances. As a stayer who typically finds plenty for pressure, he didn’t look a spent force at the time of his exit and all the rain will be very much in his favour. Given the exemplary season he’s had, an Irish National triumph for local trainer Gavin Cromwell would be quite the homecoming celebration.

Speaking of trainers taking all before them this spring, how about Willie Mullins’ Easter challenge?

Quai value

With High Class Hero not declared, Quai De Bourbon might be a forgotten horse from the same yard.

A smart hurdler who improved through the spring last season, he was in the process of running well in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham when unseating, and he was luckless when brought down again in Grade 1 company at Aintree behind Caldwell Potter. The way that contest unfolded, it’s not inconceivable that he would have gone mightily close, albeit it was too far out to know exactly how he’d have fared.

Of course, it’s not an ideal preparation to win an Irish National on the back of two non-completions but he might just be a class above his mark of 148 when all falls right. He’s still only a six-year-old and stands out as each-way value at 20/1.

It’s not difficult to make cases for plenty of these in an open edition of the €500,000 contest. Slightly unlucky Kim Muir second Johnnywho is 6lb higher than his last appearance at Cheltenham, but he was well backed on that occasion in a fashion that indicated someone felt he was well ahead of his mark. Better Days Ahead has plenty of class, but shouldering the top weight isn’t ideal.

Connections of Canal End face an anxious wait as third reserve as to whether he’ll sneak in at the bottom of the weights after getting back on track at Navan last time, high-class mare Bioluminescence will relish all the rain, Any Second Now is 1lb lower than when second in this 12 months ago, while Tom Gibney’s Kinturk Kalanisi has had Irish National candidate written all over him for some time and is nicely weighted off his mark of 135. He has a habit of being placed much more often than he wins, and that is a concern, but he hails from the right stable when it comes to targeting this race.

1. Haiti Couleurs (7/1)

2. Quai De Bourbon (20/1)

3. Now Is The Hour (8/1)

4 Kinturk Kalanisi (12/1)