3.40 Tattersalls Irish 1,000
Guineas (Group 1) 1m
Atsila: Took a major step forward to win the Athasi Stakes on her second start. She is an exciting prospect going forward, but looks up against it in today’s company.
California Dreamer: Placed behind Babouche and Fairy Godmother as a juvenile, but her recent form is weaker.
Cercene: Has progressed this year to place in two Group 3s, most recently half a length behind Atsila. She doesn’t look up to Group 1 level, at least not yet.
City Of Memphis: Bought for €370,000 12 months ago, she repaid connections’ patience with an impressive debut win over six furlongs earlier this month. She could be anything, but the concern today is the trip, being by Sioux Nation out of a dual winner over a mile.
Duty First: Impressive Fred Darling winner didn’t appear to stay a mile when beating one home in the 1000 Guineas.
Flight: Produced a career-best performance to finish second in the Newmarket classic, and did it the hard way in a group of three on the stands’ side.
Jaliyah: Progressive filly gained blacktype last time out but looks out of her depth here.
January: Twice runner-up to Desert Flower – the 1000 Guineas winner – as a juvenile, with Flight behind her in the May Hill Stakes. Her dam improved with time, but this filly may come on from her first run of the year.
Lake Victoria: Triple Group 1 was disappointing but not disgraced on return in the British equivalent, beaten two and a half lengths in sixth – half a length behind Simmering and another length behind Flight. Ballydoyle’s classic prospects often improve for the run.
Simmering: Talented juvenile bounced back from a disappointing seasonal return to take third at Newmarket, putting her high on the list today. Racing closer to the pace could help her reverse the placings with stablemate Flight.
Swelter: Made it two from two in a Group 3 last time and runner-up Exactly boosted the form when fourth in the French 1000 Guineas. She should come on from that run and will appreciate the return to a mile. Her trainer believes she will be better on soft ground.
Tamam Desert: Didn’t enjoy a clear run when fifth in the Listed Oaks Trial last time, and though she looks up to earning blacktype, she doesn’t appear to be up to this level.
Conclusion
This appears to be between Lake Victoria and British raider Flight. Aidan O’Brien’s filly has half a length to make up on Ollie Sangster’s, but if retaining the ability she showed last year, she has the class required. Sangster’s other runner, Simmering, is another leading contender for placings, along with Dermot Weld’s exciting Swelter, whose chances will improve with any rain that falls.