THERE are a couple of reasons for thinking that this could be the year that a Japanese horse wins the Arc.

Firstly, any international racing analyst will tell you that the quality of racing in Japan is up there with the best in the world, perhaps even the best in the world (as opposed to up there with it), and Japanese form is still often under-rated on the relatively rare occasions on which they travel. (Have you seen their prize money?)

Secondly, they have hit the crossbar four times, El Condor Pasa, Nakayama Festa and Orfevre twice, and Orfevre’s first wasn’t hitting the crossbar as much as it was hitting the crossbar and the two posts before bouncing on the line and back into the goalkeeper’s arms. And then there was Deep Impact.

Thirdly, there is no European superstar this year. There is no Sea The Stars, no Zarkava, no Treve.

Well, there is a Treve, but it is a 2014 Treve as opposed to a 2013 Treve, and if Criquette Head-Maarek can get Sheikh Joaan’s filly to put up the same performance that she got her to put up last year on the back of the preparation that she has had this year, it will be the greatest training performance in the Arc since Vincent O’Brien prepared Alleged to win back-to-back renewals in 1977 and 1978. Literally.

Fourthly and finally, the Japanese have as deep a team this year as they have ever assembled, they have covered every base. Gold Ship, the hardened pro, the Guineas and Leger winner of two years ago, the dual Takarazuka Kinen winner. Just A Way, the brilliant Dubai Sheema Classic winner with the turn of foot but the suspect stamina. And Harp Star, the three-year-old filly who gets all the allowances, the Japanese 1000 Guineas winner, conqueror of Gold Ship in the Sapporo Kinen on her most recent run.

HARP STAR

Of the three, Harp Star could be the one. Hiroyoshi Matsuda’s filly really has a lot in her favour.

For starters, she is a three-year-old filly. Five of the last six winners were three-year-olds, four of them were fillies and three of them were three-year-old fillies. She gets 11lb from the older colts, and that is significant.

More than that, however, she appears to have the correct mix of speed and stamina that make her a top class middle-distance filly. She showed a really impressive turn of foot to swoop down the outside and win the Japanese Guineas.

She came up just short when she tried a similar trick in the Japanese Oaks, but she lost a shoe during the race, and her rider Yuga Kawada reported afterwards that she was hanging to her left in the home straight.

She bounced back from that, however, to win the Sapporo Kinen on her most recent run. That was a really impressive performance. She didn’t swoop as late as she did in the Oaks or the Guineas, she passed her field on the outside around the home turn and then - the thing that really impressed - she stuck on well all the way to the line to withstand the persistent challenge of Gold Ship.

She wasn’t that well fancied for that race, she was sent off the 5/2 second favourite behind Gold Ship, the 4/5 favourite, and her trainer reported that she would come on considerably for the run.

Her draw in stall 12 is not perfect, you really want to be in one of the lowest six or eight stalls, but it is not as bad as it could have been - there are 20 runners. Also, Kawada will probably try to deliver her late and wide, so it might not have been ideal anyway if she had been drawn too close to the inside rail. Hopefully the pace will be fast enough (and that is a worry) to allow the field stretch out thin enough to allow her rider get her close enough to the rail and back in the field early on before taking her wide in the home straight. It is an open race, but 8/1 about her is fair.

Of the outsiders, Dolniya could out-run massive odds (40/1 this morning). The Aga Khan’s filly started her run from the same point at which Treve started her run in the Prix Vermeille - neither filly was suited by the sedate pace at which the race was run - and she beat her by a head.

That was just her fifth race ever, she had won her previous three, including the Group 2 Prix Malleret, she is another three-year-old filly, and she is well-drawn in stall five. It may be significant that Alain de Royer-Dupré is allowing her take her chance in the Arc.

It is understandable that Prince’s Trust has been put in as favourite for the Totepool Challenge Cup at Ascot this afternoon, given how impressive the son of Invincible Spirit looked in winning at Yarmouth at the end of August.

That run represented a lot of firsts for Queen Elizabeth’s horse. It was his first run in over a year, it was his first since he had been gelded and it was his first run for William Haggas.

It was also the best run of his life by some way, and there is every reason to expect that he can improve again with that run under his belt, just his fifth ever. Also, he has a top apprentice in Cam Hardie taking off 3lb.

However, this is a massive step up in class, he is short, and he is 12lb higher than he was for his seasonal debut, and we don’t know how he will perform at Ascot, a track at which course form is crucial.

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM

Highland Acclaim may represent some value against him. David O’Meara’s horse ran a lot better than his finishing position in ninth suggests in the Ayr Gold Cup.

He was drawn right next door to his stable companion, the winner Louis The Pious but, whereas the winner got right over to the stands rail before they had gone a furlong, Highland Acclaim raced just towards the near side, three horses off it.

As well as that, he did not enjoy a clear passage through the race, and he ran on best of all towards the end, apparently finishing with lots of energy left. He can be marked up a fair bit on the bare form of the run, and a 2lb higher mark today is not unfair.

That was obviously over six furlongs, but the step up to seven today is not an issue. Indeed, it may be an advantage. On his last run before the Ayr Gold Cup, he ran a cracker to finish a total of a half a length behind Safety Check - in a bunch finish that included Redvers and last week’s Cambridgeshire favourite Cornrow - over today’s course and distance.

He missed the kick that day, which may have been the plan on just his second ever run over seven furlongs, but he finished really well, leaving the impression that he got the trip well.

He also goes well at Ascot. Three of the best four runs of his life have been at Ascot, and he has only run four times there in total. David O’Meara is on fire these days, Highland Acclaim was his only entry in the race at the five-day stage, and stable jockey Daniel Tudhope is back on board for the first time since last May. He is a progressive three-year-old, and he could go close.

RECOMMENDED

HARP STAR, 1 point win, 8/1 (generally)

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM, 1 point each-way, 7/1 (William Hill, Bet365, Sky Bet [guaranteed])