Rory Delargy
ASCOT SATURDAY:
1.50 OLBG.com MARES’ HURDLE (2M7F118Y)
Vroum Vroum Mag will be all the rage here, and that creates a pleasing contest for each-way backers, with only a few making serious appeal. Foremost among those is Aurore D’Estruval, who actually has better form in the book than Willie Mullins’ star, and yet will provide backers with a profit just for hitting the frame.
The one firm offering prices on Friday morning went 8/1, and that price looks a gift given she was good enough to split Irving and Arctic Fire in last season’s Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. The trip is an unknown, but it was lack of fitness which saw her fade out of a place in the Relkeel Hurdle earlier this month, and she’s worth the risk. If she doesn’t see it out, some firms will push her out for the OLBG Hurdle at Cheltenham, and she’d be worth backing each-way for that contest assuming she shapes well enough here.
The other at the head of the market is Desert Queen, who did well to finish second at Kempton last time given how hard she pulled, but she must learn to accept restraint if she’s to fulfil her undoubted potential. If she does settle, then she’d have a big chance, but it’s enough of a worry at this point.
2.25 ‘40 YEARS OF KELTBRAY’ HOLLOWAY’S HANDICAP HURDLE (2M3F58Y)
He may have a bit to find on bare form, but Theo’s Charm is a most exciting prospect for handicap hurdles, and is almost guaranteed to improve a chunk now stepped up beyond two miles for the first time, and he rates the best bet on the card at Ascot on Saturday. Nick Gifford’s novice was among the better bumper performers last year when he shaped like he would benefit from trips in excess of two miles, and he’s made a seamless transition to hurdles, winning with plenty to spare in a couple of races at Plumpton, after shaping best on debut at Kempton. He’s not had much to beat to register his wins, but as a result, the handicapper has had to guess a little as to what he’s had in hand, and his opening mark looks very workable.
3.00 SODEXO CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE (2M192Y)
Willie Mullins has dominated with his raiders to English shores in recent weeks, and Un De Sceaux will surely prove too good for Sire De Grugy as long as he maintains his concentration, but given he’s fallen twice in six chase starts, that’s not a given.
Gary Moore is presumably planning on using Traffic Fluide as a gadfly to pester the favourite in the early stages, with the intention of plundering the prize with a more patiently-ridden Sire De Grugy. That plan may work, but if there’s any angle for the modest bettor, it’s in backing Simply Ned each way. The Nicky Richards-trained gelding looked the most likely winner when Un De Sceaux departed at Leopardstown only to be outslogged by Flemenstar. That form clearly gives him a bit to find with the main pair, but neither are bombproof, and the place part of the bet is undeniably some value in an otherwise unappealing betting event.
HAYDOCK SATURDAY:
1.30 START YOUR RACINGUK FREE TRIAL NOW NOVICES’ CHASE (2M3F203Y)
The most notable aspect of this Grade 2 event for novices is that every one of the declared runners likes to force the pace, and working out who is likely to win that early battle, or indeed which of the runners will benefit from being taken back, is the key. In that regard, the one of most interest is Kylemore Lough, who was happy to take a lead from a pair of rivals at Exeter last time, when again impressing with his jumping, and if the others get in a battle, then he’ll be there to pick up the pieces. Kerry Lee’s son of Revoque has a flamboyant way of jumping, getting his front feet up around his ears at times, and he seems at his best when the ground is very deep.
Otago Trail is the pick on the official ratings, although he’s had plenty of opportunities to post big figures, and he’s vulnerable to progressive rivals, especially with no easy lead to be had. Bristol De Mai has quite a fan club having jumped spectacularly for his win at Warwick, but he may prove best when allowed his head, which brings his fluent fencing to the fore. He’s arguably the best long-term prospect in the field, but Kylemore Lough looks the value given the shape of the race.
3.15 PETER MARSH CHASE (3M24Y)
The most interesting runner here is Reve De Sivola, who makes a belated return to fences off a very lenient looking mark, and he will handle the mud better than most. The sticking point is that when last campaigned in this sphere he was let down by his jumping, and he’s unlikely to get through this contest without blemish, given he can still be less than fluent over hurdles.
It’s very possible that he’ll be able to shrug aside a blunder, but the percentage call is to be wary of him at short odds. Other mud lovers to enter the equation include Cloudy Too and Katenko, who promised to go all the way to the top a couple of years ago, and was much better than a failure to complete on his return suggests.
It takes more of a leap of faith to back Third Intention, who is deemed better at shorter trips, and has yet to win on heavy ground, but Colin Tizzard’s charge is a high-class chaser who made the frame in a trio of graded events over three miles as a novice, and has looked in need of a step up in trip on recent starts. He was very impressive when winning a graduation chase here last season, and while he is rightly accused of flattering to deceive on occasion, he looks a big price based on his undoubted ability, and could well reward each-way support.
RECOMMENDED:
AURORE D’ESTRUVAL 1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w
THEO’S CHARM 2.25 Ascot - 2pts win
THIRD INTENTION 3.15 Haydock - 1pt e/w