Chantilly Sunday

3.30pm Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (Group 1) 1m 2f 110y

Drawn 15 of 16 on a front-runner in a race which has long favoured those drawn low. Ryan Moore, how do you solve this knotty problem?

There is little doubt in my mind that Aidan O’Brien’s Constitution River is the best colt among the 16 declared for tomorrow’s Group 1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club.

Successful in three of his four career starts, his form bears up to microscopic examination - in particular his only 2026 appearance, an impressive seven-length score in the Listed Dee Stakes, a performance which has since been boosted by a listed victory and German 2000 Guineas second from the third and fourth, Golden Story and Shayem.

Even the form of his only defeat, a narrow reverse at the hands of Distant Storm on debut last July, is gold-plated. Distant Storm has twice been classic-placed this spring, while those who finished well beaten at Newmarket that day include the Group 3 winners Oxagon (more of him later) and Oceans Four.

However, the only Jockey Club hero to overcome a wide draw in the last decade was the exceptional Ace Impact, whose running style was to sit last and come fast, wide and late, so he was always going to be put to sleep whatever his box number.

Long run

Whatever the statistics may say, the mile, two furlongs and 110 yards course at Chantilly does feature a very long run before the field encounters the race’s one and only, tight bend.

So, should he wish to, Moore may have to use up some gas, but he ought to be able to get across from his outside berth and either make the running or sit prominent not too far off the rail.

And the other jockeys will know that trying to deny such tactics by taking Constitution River on will likely mean that they are slitting their own throats by going too fast. There is a distinct possibility that Constitution River is simply too good for these opponents, even if he has to cover appreciably more ground than any rail-huggers.

Should the favourite not live up to expectations, which of his rivals will take advantage? O’Brien saddles two other credible challengers in the shape of Hawk Mountain and Montreal.

Both have gained experience of this track in their solitary outings so far this season and preference is for this line-up’s only previous Group 1 winner, Hawk Mountain, who landed the Group 3 Prix de Guiche on his return, rather than Montreal, who was caught close home in Listed company on his comeback.

Irish hope

Donnacha O’Brien is responsible for the fourth and final Irish hope, A Boy Named Susie, but he has been beaten five times since winning at Killarney last summer and the form of his career-best Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud second has not aged well.

The betting market suggests that Francis Graffard’s Daryzan, an Aga Khan home-bred Zarak half-brother to the brilliant Daryz, is the top domestic contender, despite having run just once before, when prevailing by five lengths at Saint-Cloud three weeks ago.

The fact that the normally patient Graffard is even allowing him to take his chance is a tip in itself but, remembering that Daryz finished last in the Juddmonte International when stepped up to the top level on his fifth start, this will surely be too stiff a task for Daryzan at such an early stage.

British

The two British hopes, John and Thady Gosden’s Oxagon and the Karl Burke-trained Hankelow, both have good draws. But Oxagon has finished outside of the top four in three previous Group 1 tries, while Hankelow might prefer softer ground and could struggle to reverse placings with the colt who caught him for second place in the final stride of the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, Komorebi, from the Andre Fabre yard.

The unbeaten German colt, Gostam, is interesting with the wonder kid, Billy Loughnane, booked to ride him for the first time, but my idea of the biggest danger to Constitution River is the Aga Khan Stud’s second string, Dolmalan.

Trained by Mikel Delzangles, this son of Zarak has yet to taste defeat in three starts and won with more in hand than the margin of a head implied when coming from the rear to defeat the front-running Montreal in a slowly-run Listed Prix de Suresnes, a race which has been used by both Ace Impact and Sottsass as a springboard to Jockey Club success. Dolmalan hails from the same family as two superstars of the past, Dalakhani and Daylami.

SELECTION: CONSTITUTION RIVER Next Best: Dolmalan

Rest of the card

The Chantilly undercard boasts a pair of Group 2 events. In the six-runner mile and a half Grand Prix de Chantilly, Fabre’s progressive four-year-old, Cualificar, can build on his promising reappearance third in the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt and get the better of the dual Group 1 victor Goliath.

And, in a Prix de Sandringham for three-year-old fillies where Joseph O’Brien’s Group 2 Prix Robert Papin winner Green Sense makes her first start in over eight months, the €67,830 first prize may go to Andrew Balding’s cross-Channel challenger, Mubasimah, who is in much calmer waters here than when contesting the 1000 Guineas last time out.

Fresh from chasing home the exciting prospect, Rayevka, in a similar race at Longchamp last time, the Henri-Francois Devin-trained three-year-old Mehmas colt Afjan can get the better of some older rivals in the Group 3 Prix du Gros-Chene over five furlongs, while Graffard’s Sea The Moon filly Behrayna can extend the winning streak at the start of her career to three races by landing the mile and a half Group 3 Prix de Royaumont.