Parislongchamp Sunday

3.05 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de

Triomphe (Group 1)

(3yo+ Colts & Fillies) 1m 4f

It had all been going so swimmingly! Japan’s quest for a first Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe title, organised with the kind of precision you expect from such a diligent nation, had brought French prep race victories for each of their three contenders and the underfoot conditions so alien to their horses so often prevailing at this time of year looked like they would be avoided.

Then the weather forecasters performed a U-turn to suggest that significant rain is set to fall in the 48 hours before tomorrow’s big race, and this news was compounded when the top two Japanese challengers, Croix Du Nord and Byzantine Dream, were allocated stalls 17 and 15 in an event where a wide draw has usually been a distinct disadvantage.

My belief remains that Croix Du Nord is capable of ending a losing run in Europe’s most prestigious all-aged race that stretches back to 1969, but my conviction is wavering.

While Byzantine Dream at least has the benefit of Oisin Murphy, a man who has plotted his way around this part of the Bois de Boulogne on numerous occasions, Croix Du Nord will endeavour to overcome his horror draw in the hands of Yuichi Kitamura, a man who has only ridden in two previous Longchamp races.

Top-notcher

Having felt that the 2024 Arc was only of a modest calibre, I again have that suspicion this time around. Croix Du Nord has already won Japan’s top two-year-old race, finished a close second in their Guineas (over a mile and two furlongs) and won their Derby, so may well turn out to be a genuine top-notcher.

Undaunted by the seventh-place finish of his best previous horse, Chrono Genesis, in the deep ground Arc of 2021, trainer Takashi Saito set his sights on Longchamp even before that classic triumph and Croix Du Nord’s narrow defeat of Daryz when only half-fit in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange over an inadequate trip three weeks ago showed that he can handle soft gound.

His form is better than either Byzantine Dream, who may need further than a mile and a half to be seen at his best, or the other Japanese challenger, Alohi Alii, who was gifted an uncontested lead during his recent Group 2 triumph, bring to the table. Were it not for the draw, I would regard him as a cracking bet at double-figure odds.

Aventure, Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles and Sosie, the 2-3-4 from last year’s Arc, all try again. Los Angeles and Sosie both seem to have lost their fine spring form so Aventure is once more the pick of the trio, though she was probably wound up quite tightly in order to gain her first ever Group 1 victory in the Prix Vermeille so is less open to further progress than many of the other trial winners.

Bigger danger

O’Brien’s second runner, Minnie Hauk, is a bigger danger having swept the opposition aside throughout a four-race campaign, pocketing two classics in the process.

The biggest worry for her is that the current crop of three-year-old fillies has yet to prove itself as a strong cohort.

Of the others, my most positive vibes are for Jean-Claude Rouget’s Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris victor Leffard, a 50/1 shot well drawn in stall six who looked badly in need of the run when beaten by under three lengths by Cualificar in the Group 2 Prix Niel.

SELECTION: CROIX DU NORD

Next best: Minnie Hauk