THE shape of this afternoon’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco (resist the urge to say Diamond) Stakes could change like the weather. Literally.
The amount of rain that falls on the Berkshire track between now and 3.35pm will go a long way towards determining the state of the ground and the shape of the market.
Lots of rain would be a negative for favourite Love, and in favour of Wonderful Tonight for sure, and probably in favour of Adayar and Lone Eagle and Broome too.
Love is obviously top class. Winner of the Moyglare Stud Stakes as a juvenile, Aidan O’Brien’s filly won her three races last season as a three-year-old: the Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks, and she would have been a big player in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe too had she made the line-up in Paris.
On her debut this season, she battled on well to win the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. She should come on for that run, her first in 300 days. She has won seven of her 11 races and she still has the potential for further progression.
On fast ground, the Galileo filly would be a deserving short-priced favourite, but she has avoided soft ground in the past, and the prospect of thunder storms gives her rivals a chance.
Derby winner
Adayar is the Derby winner, and we know that Derby winners do well in the King George when the year ends in a one, but the one for money during the week was Wonderful Tonight.
David Menuisier’s filly is two for two at Ascot, over the King George course and distance, and on soft ground. She looked good in winning the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions’ Day last October, and she stepped forward from that on her debut this season when she beat the boys too in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That race is working out ridiculously well already, with Japan, Hukum, Broome and Sir Ron Priestley all winning group races since. However, it may be that Wonderful Tonight is more ground dependent than most. All five wins have been recorded on soft or heavy ground, and she is zero for three on good or good to soft ground.
Of course, if there is a deluge, that will be in her favour, but she may need plenty of rain.
Short in-running
Lone Eagle is also proven on soft ground, but he proved in the Irish Derby last month that he can also operate on good ground. He traded at 1.03 in-running when he kicked clear, before he was run down close home by Hurricane Lane.
Martyn Meade’s horse only went down by a neck to the Godolphin horse, who was seriously impressive in winning the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris next time, a race in which the Irish Derby third Wordsworth finished second, with the King Edward VII winner Alenquer back in third. Already, this year’s renewal of the Irish Derby is looking like a strong one.
That was a career-best performance by Lone Eagle, but he was progressive going into the Irish Derby, and there is every chance that he can progress again.
He stays a mile and a half well, and soft ground should be fine for him, but so should good ground. Anything from a little bit of rain to a lot of rain should suit him well.
Stall one over a mile and a half at Ascot is not a positive, but Frankie Dettori is, and he could run a big race.
International Stakes
Cliffs Of Capri could also run a big race too in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes 35 minutes earlier.
Jamie Osborne’s horse did well to finish second to Blue Mist in this race last year, making nice ground from the rear and keeping on strongly all the way to the line. He raced off a mark of 97 then, 2lb higher than the mark off which he will race today.
He was well-beaten in the Royal Hunt Cup last month, but he put that run behind him with a fine run in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time. He ran much better there than the bare form of the run suggests, because he missed the break, he was squeezed out of it a little early, and he raced on the far side, in a race that developed on the near side.
He finished off his race well over there, he actually did best of the six horses who raced on the far side.
His hold-up style of racing is much better suited to Ascot than it is to Newmarket. He has won twice at Ascot, over today’s course and distance, and he has run well in defeat on several occasions there.
He has good form on good ground, on good to soft ground and on good to firm ground, so any ground within the extremes should be fine for him. Seven furlongs is his optimum trip, and it is possible that Jamie Osborne has had this race as his main target for a little while.
Recommended
Cliffs Of Capri,1pt e/w, 3.00 Ascot, 16/1 (generally)
Lone Eagle, 1pt win, 3.35 Ascot, 6/1 (generally)