VICTORY for Magical in the Qipco Champion Stakes this afternoon would be the latest chapter in a storied season for the Galileo mare. The decision to postpone her date with No Nay Never has already reaped rich dividends.
She quickly added a Pretty Polly Stakes and a(nother) Tattersalls Gold Cup to her burgeoning CV early in the season. Then, after chasing home Ghaiyyath in the Juddmonte International at York in August, Aidan O’Brien’s mare exacted her revenge on the Godolphin horse in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, in what proved to be one of the most enthralling duels of the season so far.
It is difficult to pick holes in the case for Magical today. This 10-furlong trip is probably her optimum, she goes well on soft ground and, with her 3lb fillies’ allowance, she comes out on top on ratings.
As well as that, she is proven at Ascot, and on soft ground at Ascot, conditions under which her record reads 121. She is two for two at this meeting, she won the Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes in 2018 and she won the Champion Stakes last year, and she goes into the race a relatively fresh horse.
She has run just four times this season so far. Last year, she had run eight times before she won the Champion Stakes.
She is the right favourite for the race, but she probably shouldn’t be as far in front of Lord North in the market as she is. John Gosden’s horse is actually rated 2lb superior to Magical, and her mares’ allowance leaves him with just 1lb to find with her.
As well as that, Lord North is also proven at Ascot, and on soft ground, and on soft ground at Ascot. In three runs at the Berkshire track, Lord North has finished second in a one-mile handicap and in the Balmoral Handicap at this meeting last year, and he has won a Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
Career-best
That was his first run on the round track at Ascot, it was over today’s course and distance, and it was a career-best performance. Held up out the back that day, he travelled well into his race and he showed an impressive turn of foot to hit the front on the run to the furlong marker, before staying on well to win impressively, leaving Addeybb and Japan back behind him in second and fourth places respectively.
He has run just once since then, he finished third behind Ghaiyyath and Magical in the Juddmonte International.
That was his first run at York, and he travelled better than any of his rivals to the three-furlong marker before his run flattened out. He only has just over a length to find with Magical on that run, and he lost a shoe during the race.
He hasn’t run since then, he has run just three times this season so far, so he goes into the race fresher than most. You can be sure that John Gosden will have him primed for today, and he goes well fresh.
His record after a break of 50 days or more reads 11213. And he has only run 10 times. There is a chance that he can still improve.
If Japan could bounce back to the form that he showed in winning last year’s Juddmonte International, that would bring him close.
The Derby winner Serpentine, who, like Japan, had to miss the Arc de Triomphe, is obviously of big interest, as is Prix du Jockey Club winner Mishriff, who is, like Serpentine, making his Ascot debut.
King Edward winner Pyledriver returns to Ascot and drops significantly in trip after finishing third behind Galileo Chrome in the St Leger. It is a fascinating race, but Lord North has lots in his favour and he looks over-priced.
Long Distance Cup
Dawn Patrol looks over-priced in the curtain-raiser, the Qipco British Long Distance Cup.
Aidan O’Brien’s horse ran his stable companion Tiger Moth to a half a length in one of the best three-year-olds maidens of the season at Leopardstown in June, and he followed up by finishing third behind his two stable companions Santiago and the aforementioned Tiger Moth in the Irish Derby.
Sixth in the St Leger, when he kept on after being held up early on, he stepped forward from that last time when he stepped up to two miles for the first time and won the Group 3 Loughbrown Stakes.
He showed a smart turn of foot that day on the inside early in the home straight to move up in behind the leader Prose, and he stayed on strongly through the final furlong to beat Jessica Harrington’s talented mare Barrington Court, with last year’s Loughbrown Stakes winner Kastasa back in fourth.
Only one horse from that race has run since: sixth-placed Traisha, and Joseph O’Brien’s filly went to Bath on Wednesday and ran out an impressive winner of a listed race there.
Dawn Patrol is still going to have to step forward from his Loughbrown win if he is going to beat Stradivarius and company today, but his is only three and, a three-parts brother to Derby winner Pour Moi, he has lots of potential to progress now as a stayer.
No three-year-old has won the Long Distance Cup since Akmal won it when it was called the Jockey Club Cup and run at Newmarket in 2009, but there were no three-year-olds in the race in 2019 or in 2016, and in 2018, Sir Erec and Flag Of Honour finished third and fourth in the race.
Stradivarius obviously sets the standard, but he is short and he is not invincible. Kew Gardens beat him in the race last year, and he too in the Arc this year, as opposed to last year, when he went straight from the Doncaster Cup to Ascot.
Ebor winner Fujaira Prince is going to have to step forward from his Irish Leger run, and a bigger danger may be Search For A Song, who was very good in winning her second Irish Leger five weeks ago, and should go well in a race that her trainer Dermot Weld has won twice in the last eight years.
At twice the Moyglare Stud filly’s price, Dawn Patrol may represent the value.
Recommended
Dawn Patrol, 1.20 Ascot, 12/1
(generally), 1 point win
Lord North, 3.40 Ascot, 6/1
(generally), 1 point win