Donn McClean

YOU can understand why the lightly weighted, lightly raced horses have been commanding attention all week in this afternoon’s Betfair Hurdle. History tells you that that’s a good starting point into the race, with four of the nine winners since 2008 aged five, and five of them aged six, and six of them carrying 10st 9lb or less. And only two winners in the history of the race carried more than 11st 7lb to victory.

But this is a changing race. Last year, for example, the first three home all carried more than 11st and Clyne finished third with 11st 9lb on his back.

Furthermore, 11 of the 16 runners last year carried more than 11st. Contrast that with 2008, for example, when just three of the 24 runners carried more than 11st. This year, 16 of the 24 runners are set to carry more than 11st, and it might be a mistake to dismiss a contender just because he or she has to carry more than some arbitrary burden.

PROGRESSIVE

Verdana Blue is a case in point. Nicky Henderson’s mare was a progressive novice last season, she finished a close-up fourth behind Let’s Dance in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. But she has taken her form to a new level this term.

A close-up fifth in a hot handicap hurdle at Ascot in early November off a mark of 136 on her seasonal return, she stepped up from that next time when she went back to Ascot next time and won another handicap hurdle off the same mark.

She did well to win that day, given that she was fairly badly hampered at the flight in front of the stands first time, and the runner-up Speredek has enhanced the form of that race since, albeit over fences.

The handicapper raised Verdana Blue by 8lbs to a mark of 144 for that, but she proved last time in the old Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot that she was well able for a mark of that magnitude. She raced in rear that day, and she had to come very wide around the home turn in order to make her ground. No better than ninth as they jumped the second last flight, she had to make ground into a quickening pace, but she ran all the way to the line to take third place behind the impressive winner Hunters Call.

FAIR

The handicapper raised her by just 1lb for that run to a mark of 145, and that was fair. She should do better behind a faster pace that she will surely get today – although it is not a guarantee – and Davy Russell is a great booking. She is only six, she has raced just eight times in her career over hurdles and she remains progressive. Very soft ground would be a slight concern, she has never raced on very soft ground, but her last two runs at Ascot have been on easy ground, so hopefully it won’t get too soft for her.

Jenkins continues to progress, he is well-handicapped even under his 5lb penalty and even allowing for the fact that James Bowen can only claim 3lbs today, not 5lbs, though only by 1lb effectively. Waterlord and Lalor are both progressive novices, and Bleu Et Rouge also ran well in that Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot and Spiritofthegames ran a cracker last time. It is an intriguing race, but Verdana Blue could represent value at 12/1.

HEADLINE

Barters Hill is obviously the headline act in the three-mile handicap hurdle, racing, as he is, for the first time since he pulled up on his chasing debut at Cheltenham in November 2016. He was a top-class novice hurdler the previous season, he won the Challow Hurdle and the River Don Hurdle and he finished fourth in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle.

He is fascinating, but he is risky from a betting perspective given his lengthy absence and King Uther could represent some value against him.

Winner of his maiden hurdle at Lingfield last March, Chris Gordon’s horse has progressed nicely this season in staying handicap hurdles, and he did really well to win at Warwick last time, given that he raced keenly and that his jumping lacked fluency in general. He stayed on strongly on the heavy ground up the run-in to come away from his rivals, with the two horses who finished second and third both 5lbs well-in.

The handicapper raised King Uther by 9lbs for that run to a mark of 123 but that was understandable. He is eight now, but that was just his seventh run over hurdles and it was just his second in a visor, he has scope for progression, especially if he can jump more fluently. He goes well on soft ground, he should appreciate Newbury’s galloping nature and Richard Johnson rides him for the first time today. He is race-fit and he could outstay his rivals.

RECOMMENDED

VERDANA BLUE 1 point each-way, 12/1 (generally)

KING UTHER 1 point win, 5/1 (generally)

WINNER

One of Donn’s two recommended bets last week, Topofthegame (SP 11/2), won the Betfred Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown.