YOU can understand why Diese Des Bieffes and River Frost dominate the market for today’s feature race at Kempton, the Lanzarote Hurdle.

River Frost finished a close-up fifth behind Court Minstrel in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow in October the last time we saw him. He was only beaten a total of two lengths in the end and that race is working out ridiculously well.

Runner-up Sam Spinner went on and won the Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, he followed up by landing the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot and he is now favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle. Fourth-placed Wholestone won the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

Sixth-placed Louis’ Van Pouch went on to win a Pertemps qualifier at Aintree in November, seventh-placed Old Guard won a handicap hurdle at Newbury, eighth-placed Bags Groove is two for two since. Those five horses are now rated, respectively, 28lb, 10lb, 13lb, 6lb and 12lb higher than they were in the Silver Trophy.

River Frost gets to race off a mark of 145 today, just 3lb higher than his Silver Trophy mark. He is two for two at Kempton and he will have Barry Geraghty for company. The case for J.P. McManus’ horse is compelling.

ENCOURAGING

Diese Des Bieffes put up a really encouraging performance when he finished second behind If The Cap Fits in a two-mile novices’ hurdle at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day. He got out-paced as they raced out of the back straight that day, he dropped back to sixth, but he stayed on well over the last two flights and up the run-in to take second place behind the impressive winner. He shaped as if he would improve for a step-up in trip.

The problem with the two market leaders is that they are relatively short. Just over 9/4 the pair of them coupled. There is no doubting Diese Des Bieffes’ potential, but this is a significant step up in trip, and he is inexperienced.

River Frost may be the more solid of the pair, but he is also short, he hasn’t run since mid-October and he probably wouldn’t want the ground to be too soft. All his good form in Britain is on good or good to soft ground.

Topofthegame may represent some value against the top two. It is not ideal that Paul Nicholls’ horse is coming into this race on the back of a fall in a beginners’ chase, but that was in early November and you can be sure that he has been freshened up nicely and well schooled over hurdles since.

He was a talented novice hurdler last season. He finished fourth behind Wholestone and William Henry (he meets Nicky Henderson’s horse on 9lb better terms today) in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in January last year, and he stepped up on that next time at Ascot, when he ran a cracker to finish a neck behind subsequent Sefton Hurdle runner-up Beyond Conceit, with De Dollar Man just behind in third, and the three of them clear of Acting Lass, who is two for two over fences since. That is good form.

Topofthegame is built for chasing, and he was travelling well in that Newbury beginners’ chase in November when he fell at the cross-fence, so it is interesting that Paul Nicholls is running him here, over hurdles, instead of persevering with his chasing career. This is a race that Nicholls likes to win, he has won three of the last nine renewals of it, and Topofthegame is his only runner today.

The Flemensfirth gelding gets to race off a handicap rating of 139 today and, a six-year-old who has raced just three times over hurdles, that is a mark which he has the potential to surpass by a fair way. He won his maiden over two miles and five and a half furlongs, so we know that he stays the trip. He goes well right-handed and he handles soft ground well. He has plenty in his favour, and he is an each-way bet as long as all 16 runners stand their ground.

WARWICK

Sir Mangan could be the answer to the Classic Chase at Warwick. Dan Skelton’s horse put up a good performance at Bangor last time when he stayed on well to win a decent three-mile chase from Actinpieces and Battle Of Shiloh and Potters Legend, who ran well for a long way in the Hennessy next time.

The handicapper raised Sir Mangan by 4lb for that win to a mark of 138, but he left the impression that he was only doing as much as he needed to do at Bangor, that he could have done more if more had been required.

Also, that was his first chase for Skelton, it was his first run over fences since April 2015, so there is every chance that he will progress for it. He is 10 years old, but he has raced just nine times over fences, so he could still progress as a staying chaser.

We don’t know that he will stay this marathon distance for sure, but his record over three miles and a furlong or more reads 2121. Also, he put up his best performance over hurdles when he ran over the joint-longest distance over which he has ever raced, an extended three and a quarter miles, at Newton Abbot in October when he ran Beer Goggles to three-quarters of a length. And Richard Woollacott’s horse went and beat Unowhatimeanharry and Colin’s Sister and Thistlecrack in the Grade 1 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury at the Hennessy meeting.

Sir Mangan proved at Bangor last time that he can handle soft ground well. He could run a big race today.

RECOMMENDED

TOPOFTHEGAME, 1 point each-way, 9/1 (generally)

SIR MANGAN 1 point win, 13/2 (generally)