Donn McClean

IT has been an eventful week in the make-up-of-the-Arc-field stakes. Cracksman was confirmed as out and Winter was confirmed as in, and Highland Reel was taken out and Enable was put in. That’s right, Enable had to be supplemented, connections had to pay €120,000 to put her into the race on Wednesday, which they duly did.

It is a good bet, €120,000 on an even money shot: over €3 million if she wins, a million if she finishes second, half a million if she finishes third. You’re getting over 25/1 about an even-money shot, and that is without factoring in the consolation prizes for getting close.

Whether John Gosden’s filly is a good bet or not at even money is a different question though, and if you are not Khalid Abdullah and you are thinking about taking a financial interest in the race, it is a question which probably concerns you.

On the positive side, Enable is a remarkable filly, she has progressed as she has developed this season, she has won the Cheshire Oaks and the Epsom Oaks and the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks, and she proved her talent against the older males when she won the King George. She is the standout middle-distance performer of the season so far.

As well as that, she is a three-year-old filly, she gets the age and sex allowance, she is trained by a master trainer and she will be ridden by one of the best big-race riders in the world.

ENABLE NEGATIVES

On the negative side, she has had a long season. True, she has had a break since she won the Yorkshire Oaks, but that was just six weeks ago, she can’t have had that long a break. She was on the go before that from early, she made her seasonal debut in the middle of April, and she raced every month between then and August, including twice in July.

As well as that, while three-year-old fillies have a good recent record in the Arc, three-year-old fillies trained in Britain and Ireland do not. Indeed, no three-year-old filly trained in Britain or Ireland has ever won the Arc.

That may be a red herring, but there may be something in it. It may be that the three-year-old middle-distance fillies here are trained to peak for the Oaks or the King George or the Irish Oaks, and that it is difficult then for them to reach concert pitch again for the Arc.

And it is not as if top-class British and Irish three-year-old fillies have not tried to win the Arc: User Friendly, Salsabil, Tapestry, Sun Princess, Taghrooda, Ouija Board, even Found as a three-year-old, all came up short.

Enable could win by half the track, but at even money, all things considered, she is short enough.

VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

Ulysses is a viable alternative, he is top-class and he continues to progress. He probably improved from his King George run (when he finished second to Enable) to land the Juddmonte International at York, but the suspicion remains that, despite the fact that he is by Galileo out of Light Shift, he may be at his absolute best over 10 furlongs. Winter is a fascinating inclusion, and Capri and Dschingis Secret may both be under-rated, but Order Of St George could be the value of the race.

You can understand why Ryan Moore has gone with Winter instead. She has the class and she has the pace, she just needs to get the trip, which is more than possible.

However, Order Of St George’s odds were extended when it emerged that Moore would not ride him, and he looks over-priced now at 12/1.

Aidan O’Brien’s horse ran a massive race to finish third behind his two stable companions Found and Highland Reel on that historic day last year, and there are two reasons for believing that he can do even better this year. Firstly, the ground will be softer this year, which will be in his favour, both in terms of terrain and in terms of the emphasis that a soft ground Arc will place on stamina. And secondly, he comes into the race this year in better form than last year.

ORDER OF ST GEORGE

In his last race before the 2016 Arc, Order Of St George suffered that shock defeat at the hands of Wicklow Brave in the Irish St Leger.

In his last race before the 2017 Arc, he has won the Irish St Leger by nine lengths, putting up one of the best performances of his career in so doing.

There may not have been much between Winter and Order Of St George in Ryan Moore’s eyes and, in Donnacha O’Brien, the Galileo horse has a more than able deputy for Moore. The fact that Team Ballydoyle are eschewing a real shot at the Melbourne Cup in order to take Order Of St George to Chantilly tells you that they rate his chances highly, and he could be the value of the race.

BRITISH PREVIEW

There is the small matter of the Cambridgeshire to be decided in Britain this afternoon, a nine-furlong sprint over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile (and a furlong), and Leader Writer could be the answer. The Pivotal horse reportedly had problems with the stalls when he was trained by Henri-Alex Pantall in France, but those problems seem to be in the past for him now. He has raced just three times for Henry Spiller, and his last two, his only two in cheekpieces, have been very good.

He did well to finish third in the Shergar Cup Mile at Ascot on his penultimate run, when he was keen enough early on and he was squeezed out of it a bit at the two-furlong pole, yet he kept on well.

He did even better last time back at Ascot, back on easy ground, when he came nicely clear of a decent field of handicappers that included Banksea and Sacred Act and Afaak.

The handicapper raised him 6lb for that but, because this is an early-closing race, he gets to race under just a 4lb penalty, so he is 2lb well-in. More than that, however, he has the potential to go even higher than his new mark of 98. He stays a mile well, so this nine-furlong trip, off hopefully a strong pace, should suit him well. He goes well on easy ground, the Cambridgeshire has reportedly been the plan since before his latest win, and Fran Berry, who rode him for the first time at Ascot last time, takes the ride again. There are lots of positives.

RECOMMENDED

ORDER OF ST GEORGE, 12/1 (generally), 1 point win

LEADER WRITER, 14/1 (generally), 1 point each-way

Winner

Donn advised another winner last week, Brorocco, advised at 12/1 for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury, which followed on the heels of Spring Loaded’s victory the previous week in the Portland Handicap, also at 12/1.