IT is fitting that the 2025 Betfred Derby is going to be run in honour of HH Aga Khan IV, and that evokes memories of Harzand and Sinndar and Kahyasi and Shahrastani. Shergar if you are old enough.
It is also fitting that the famous colours are going to be present at Epsom, worn, as they will be, by Mickael Barzalona on the Francis Graffard-trained Midak.
Supplemented to the race on Monday, the Footstepsinthesand colt could be a player too. Unraced as a juvenile, he has run in three races so far in his life and he has won three races, most recently the Group 3 Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud, a race that was won by Derby winner Pour Moi in 2011 when it was a Group 2 race, in which he made all the running and won nicely.
It’s a wide-open Derby, as evidenced by the fact that the favourite is now 100/30 or 7/2.
That favourite is Delacroix, has been since Ryan Moore committed to him, or since it looked like Ryan Moore was going to commit to him.
It’s not a given that he will do best of Aidan O’Brien’s horses, three of the last five Ballydoyle Derby winners were not the shortest Ballydoyle horse in the Derby market, but, as an indicator, as we saw in yesterday’s Oaks, it’s not bad.
And Ballydoyle is a good starting place, given that Aidan O’Brien has won the Derby 10 times, including five of the last eight runnings. Delacroix has been quietly going about his business, more low-key than is usually the case with the Derby favourite. He won the two Leopardstown races, the Ballysax Stakes and the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial, the two races that Galileo and High Chaparral both won before they won the Derby.
That was in 2001 and 2002, and no horse has won all three races since, but Harzand won the Ballysax in 2016 before he won the Derby and, as stepping stones to the Derby, they make sense.
Form perspective
Delacroix probably achieved more in winning the Ballysax than he did in winning the Cashel Palace Hotel.
In the latter race, he had the run of it, handy behind a sedate pace before quickening up smartly and winning nicely. In the Ballysax, he had subsequent Chester Vase winner Lambourn and subsequent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Puppet Master behind him, as well as subsequent Salsabil Stakes winner Wemightakedlongway, who ran a big race in the Oaks yesterday.
Ruling Court has the class and the classic, he was a game winner of the 2000 Guineas, and Field Of Gold obviously enhanced that form when he won the Irish Guineas with plenty in hand, as did sixth-placed Green Impact, who was good in winning the Glencairn Stakes at Leopardstown on Thursday night.
The Godolphin horse just has to stay now, but that is a big just. He is by Justify, and he is out of a High Chaparral mare, but you can argue that his pedigree is more eight or nine or 10 furlongs than 12.
It is probable that The Lion In Winter will improve significantly on his run in the Dante, his seasonal return, but it may be that the Dante form is generally being under-rated by the market.
Damysus ran a big race at York, he travelled into his race well on the near side and he kept on well to take second place behind Pride Of Arras.
That was a nice step forward from this seasonal return in the Classic Trial at Sandown, and there is every chance that he will step forward again.
Impressive in Dante
That said, Pride Of Arras was impressive in winning the Dante. Weak in the market beforehand, he travelled well into his race too on the far side, and he was brave for one so inexperienced in going through a narrowing gap to hit the front two furlongs out, before staying on well to win well.
He hit the line strongly too, he was fastest of all through the final furlong.
He should improve for that run, his seasonal debut and just the second run of his life, and he could improve too for going out again in distance. He is bred for further than 10 furlongs.
His dam’s two wins were both gained over 12 furlongs, and his half-sister Sweet Fantasy has won three times over a mile and a half, including over the Derby course and distance. She won over hurdles too, as did Pride Of Arras’ half-brother Latin Verse, who has also won over a mile and a half on the flat.
The impressive part is that the New Bay colt had the pace to win the Dante. It is probable that he will be even better over a mile and a half.
Ralph Beckett’s horse is unbeaten, he is two for two, and he won’t mind if the rains come.
His dam’s best form was on soft ground, Sweet Fantasy and Latin Verse both handle soft ground well, and he shouldn’t mind it if there is an extra premium on stamina.
Princess Elizabeth
The opening race, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, is a really competitive contest, but Bermuda Longtail is the most unexposed filly in the race, and she could take a nice step forward now.
A winner at Kempton in October last year on just her second start, she did well to finish second in the Listed Michael Seely Stakes at York last time. Held up early on in the race, she made her ground in the home straight on the far side, just failing by a half a length to get to Kon Tiki.
The winning trainer was talking about the Falmouth Stakes for Kon Tiki afterwards, she is obviously held in high regard, and she and the third filly Troia both made their ground towards the near side in the home straight.
Bermuda Longtail did well to split the pair of them.
Andrew Balding’s filly has never raced on soft ground, that was her first time on turf last time, but her half-sister Epoustouflante gained her only win on ground that was officially described as good to soft, and reports suggest that it may be that the major rains will not arrive at Epsom until a little later in the day anyway.
Bermuda Longtail, 1.00 Epsom, 6/1 (generally), 1 point win
Pride Of Arras, 3.30 Epsom, 9/2 (generally), 1 point win