THE outcome of the Bet365 Gold Cup today at Sandown will obviously be a key determinant in the destination of the British National Hunt trainers’ title, with £175,000 up for grabs in total prize money. And, with 10 declared runners, there is every chance that Willie Mullins will bag a lot of that.

You can make a case for most of the 10 Willie Mullins representatives too. Grangeclare West ran some race in the Grand National and, you never know, if he had jumped the final fence a little more fluently, he could have been the 1 in the 1-2-3(-5-7), not the 3. Brian Hayes got a great tune out of him at Aintree, so it is not surprising that he keeps the ride.

The worry about Grangeclare West is that he had a hard race at Aintree, and that was only three weeks ago. It may not be a factor at all but, sometimes, you don’t know how much it took out of them until you ask them to go again.

Similar with Minella Cocooner, and Jonathan Burke did some job to get him home in seventh place with a slipped saddle. He is only 4lb higher than he was when he won this race last year under Danny Mullins, in a partnership that has been reinstated. Hard race at Aintree, it’s a consideration, but he finished third in a gruelling Irish Grand National last year, and he only had five more days of recovery time last year than he has had this year.

It is obviously significant that Paul Townend has chosen to ride High Class Hero. A talented hurdler, just beaten by Dancing City in the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ hurdle at last year’s Punchestown Festival, it was disappointing at the time that he was beaten in the Grade 3 Pierce Molony Chase at Thurles last time, but that was just his third chase, and it was over two miles and five furlongs. He should improve for the step back up in trip.

Dan Skelton relies on Hoe Joly Smoke, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him run a big race. He is 12lb out of the handicap, and that obviously makes his task more arduous than it might have been, but he is a progressive young chaser who is two for two at the track, and this has been his target since he won a three-mile handicap chase there six weeks ago.

Big price

But, at a much bigger price, Victtorino may be the value of the race. You have to allow Venetia Williams’ horse a poor run last time in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but you easily can, he never runs well at Cheltenham. He has run there three times now, and his record reads 7PP.

He is much better judged on the performance that he put up at Ascot in February, when he battled on well to get the better of Threeunderthrufive. He travelled sweetly through the race that day, up on the sharp end with the eventual runner-up, and he found lots for pressure, showing an abundance of grit and determination to get home by a nose.

He is 2lb higher now than he was then, but he was better this year than he was last year, he could only finish fourth in that Ascot race last year, behind the same Threeunderthrufive, off the same mark. While he has had plenty of racing, he is still only seven, he still has room for progression as a staying chaser.

As well as that, there is a real chance that the step up to three miles and five furlongs could unlock further progression. He races over three miles as if he will get further and, on his only foray behind three miles and one furlong, in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last November over three and a quarter miles, he finished off his race best of all to take third place, after appearing to get outpaced earlier in the race.

He has never run at Sandown, but the fact that he goes so well at Ascot is not a negative in that regard.

We know that he goes well right-handed. The step up in trip could allow him to travel better through his race, and we know that he goes well on the ground. Goodish ground and a marathon trip could be close to optimal for him now.

Venetia Williams’ horses haven’t been in brilliant form of late, she only had one winner in March, and she had none in April until Hunter Legend won at Bangor on Wednesday, but, besides Hunter Legend, she has had horses run well this week at Ludlow as well as at Bangor, and Victtorino will have the excellent Charlie Deutsch for company, as usual.

The step up in trip should be a big positive for Resplendent Grey, who goes well at Sandown too and who finished off his race really strongly in the Ultima Chase last time, while Olympic Man could run a big race if he settles a little bit better in his first-time hood. There are obviously many with chances, but Victtorino looks to be well over-priced.

Select Hurdle

Take No Chances looks over-priced too in the Grade 2 Bet365 Select Hurdle earlier in the day. Dan Skelton’s mare has been running to a high level all season. The performance that she put up in finishing third behind Wodhooh and Joyeuse in a mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s December meeting looks even better now than it did then, with Wodhooh winning the Martin Pipe Hurdle and Joyeuse winning the Betfair Hurdle. Those two mares are now rated, respectively, 24lb and 23lb higher than they were then. Even the fourth-placed Royale Margaux came out and won a listed mares’ hurdle at Warwick two runs later.

Take No Chances herself went to Ascot next time and beat Kargese in a Grade 2 mares’ hurdle, and Kargese won the County Hurdle on her next run.

The Milan mare did well too to keep on as well as she did to take third place behind Lossiemouth and Jade De Grugy in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, coming from the rear off a sedate pace in a race in which the first and second occupied the first two places from early. And she kept on well last time too to finish third behind Lossiemouth again in the Aintree Hurdle.

She has had a busy campaign, and that is a little bit of a worry, but that worry is more than factored into her odds. Importantly, she has retained her form all season. Also, the step up in trip could see her progress again, and she goes well right-handed, her record going right reads 233121.

It is obviously significant that Harry Skelton prefers her to the Rendlesham Hurdle winner Gwennie May Boy, and her mares’ allowance leaves her with very little to find with Kitzbuhel and Lucky Place on official ratings.

Recommended:

Take No Chances 3.00 Sandown,

1 pt win 7/1 (generally)

Victtorino 4.10 Sandown, 1 pt each-way 16/1 (generally)