WE’LL know who the 2025 Betfred 2000 Guineas winner is before we’ll know who the 2025 Ballymore Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle winner is.

Field Of Gold could be the Guineas winner by then. John and Thady Gosden’s colt was mightily impressive in winning the Craven Stakes on his debut this season, over the Guineas course and distance obviously, coming from last and quickening up smartly to put three and a half lengths between himself and his rivals by the time he got to the winning line.

A Craven win ticks a lot of Guineas boxes. It proves that you have ‘trained on’ from two to three for starters, that you are race fit, that you can stay a mile and that you can operate at the track, in and out of the Dip.

Field Of Gold did win his maiden last year at Newmarket’s July Course, but his Craven win ticked the Rowley Mile box.

Strange, then, that winners of the Craven, the theoretical quintessential Guineas trial, don’t have a better record in the Guineas.

Masar won the Craven in 2018 and he went on to win the Derby, but he could only finish third in the Guineas. Native Trail won the Craven in 2022 and he went on to win the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, but he was beaten by Coroebus in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

You have to go back to Haafhd in 2004 to find the last Craven winner who prevailed in the Guineas. And before Haafhd? Tirol in 1990.

Field Of Gold won the Solario Stakes last year as a juvenile, over seven furlongs at Sandown, and that is no better as a Guineas pointer.

The last Solario Stakes winner who went on to win the Guineas the following year was Oh So Sharp in 1985, and she was obviously a 1000 Guineas winner.

The last horse who won the Solario Stakes as a two-year-old and who went on to win the 2000 Guineas as a three-year-old was To-Agori-Mou, and he won the colts’ classic in 1981.

The fact that John Gosden has never trained a 2000 Guineas winner is not a factor. It’s a bit like Sadler’s Wells not having a Derby winner. The Galileo came along, and that was that.

It’s down to happenstance more than some underlying influence that decreases the Gosdens’ chance of having a 2000 Guineas winner.

John Gosden is prolific in Group 1 winners over a mile, and he won the 1000 Guineas with Lahan.

Also, Field Of Gold’s sire Kingman, trained by John Gosden, and owned and bred by Juddmonte, beat Night Of Thunder in the Greenham, and went on to win the Irish Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes and the Sussex Stakes and the Prix Jacques le Marois, but he was beaten by Night Of Thunder in that anomalic Guineas.

Arguments

That said, Field Of Gold is short, and there are cogent arguments for many of his rivals. It is a pity that Twain was ruled out of the race during the week but, even in his absence, Aidan O’Brien has a worthy contender in Expanded.

The Wootton Bassett colt’s profile is not wholly dissimilar to Twain’s, in that he started off late last season, he won his maiden on his racecourse debut in early October, and he ran again a week later, in the Dewhurst, going down by a neck to Shadow Of Light.

Aidan O’Brien has trained 10 2000 Guineas winners, more than any other trainer ever, and Expanded will have Ryan Moore for company.

It is obviously significant that William Buick has chosen to ride Ruling Court in front of the Dewhurst winner. An impressive winner of his maiden on his racecourse debut at Sandown in July, the Justify colt could only finish third behind The Lion In Winter in the Acomb Stakes at York in August, but he was impressive in winning a listed race at Meydan in early March.

Green Impact showed a really good attitude in beating the Autumn Stakes winner and the Ballysax Stakes winner Delacroix twice last year, latterly in the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown on Irish Champions’ Weekend, and Jessica Harrington’s colt goes there with his chance on his seasonal debut, as does the aforementioned Shadow Of Light, who showed his pace in the Middle Park, but who got the seventh furlong alright in the Dewhurst.

Value of the race

But Scorthy Champ still looks like the value of the race. Winner of his maiden on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown in May, Joseph O’Brien’s horse didn’t run after that until he lined up in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh in August, when he shaped as if he would come on for the run when finishing third behind Henri Matisse and Hotazhell.

The form of that race was enhanced when Hotazhell won Group 1 Beresford Stakes next time, then rounded off his season with victory in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in October, and when Henri Matisse won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November.

Also, more importantly, Scorthy Champ did progress from that next time when he won the Group 1 National Stakes, exacting his revenge on Henri Matisse.

He was good that day, he quickened up smartly and he kept on strongly on the far side to get home by three-parts of a length, leaving the impression that he had at least a little more in hand than that.

A full-brother to Knight, who finished second in a Celebration Mile, and to Malavath, who was only just beaten in a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf over a mile, the step up from seven furlongs to a mile should not be a negative for the Mehmas colt, and it is likely to be a positive.

Joseph O’Brien has said from a long way out that he would go straight to the Guineas without a prep, and you can be sure that he will have him at concert pitch today.

Six-furlong handicap

Earlier in the day, Woodhay Wonder could be the answer to the six-furlong handicap.

Tom Ward’s filly has to reverse placings with More Thunder and Aramram, who finished in front of her over today’s course and distance at the Craven meeting.

But she travelled best in that race until well inside the two-furlong marker, she was the only horse who was still on the bridle on the run into the Dip, before the easy ground seemed to find her out and she faded to finish third.

Aramram had race fitness on his side that day, whereas Woodhay Wonder was making her seasonal debut. Also, she meets More Thunder on 5lb better terms.

Woodhay Wonder did win at the Craven meeting on her debut last season, but she still stepped forward from that to win a three-year-olds’ handicap next time, back at Newmarket, again over today’s course and distance.

She improved from her first run as a juvenile too to win at Newbury on her second.

She should improve from her run at the Craven meeting, and the faster ground should help her.

She goes really well on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, her record at the track reads 1113, all four races over today’s course and distance, and her only defeat at the track was last time, on the first occasion on which she encountered ground softer than good.

Her draw in stall 12 is probably a positive too. Usually sharply away, you can see P.J. McDonald adopting a prominent position on her over towards the stands rail and making his way from there.

Woodhay Wonder, 1.45 Newmarket, 5/1 (generally), 1 point win

Scorthy Champ, 3.35 Newmarket, 8/1 (generally), 1 point win