IT’S Carey Group Victoria Cup day at Ascot today, and you can make the case for many of the 29 declarants. Mudbir holds a tenuous grip on the favourite’s armband. That may change, but you can see why he is high in the market.

The Gosdens’ horse was gritty in winning a seven-furlong handicap at Glorious Goodwood last summer, getting home by the bob of a head from Dance In The Storm, who was impressive herself in coming from well back in the field to get up and win another seven-furlong handicap at Chester on Wednesday off a 3lb higher mark.

Mudbir is only 4lb higher now and, while he hasn’t run since August, he won his maiden at Chelmsford on his debut last season, so he can go well fresh.

He has never run at Ascot, but he is one for one on all-weather, which is not a negative in the context of Ascot’s straight track, and he is probably nicely drawn in stall 19.

Tribal Chief put up a big performance in the Lincoln on his debut this season, coming from well back in the field to finish third, doing best of the hold-up horses – he was 19th passing the two-furlong marker, while the other four horses who, with him, filled the first five places were all eighth or better – and clocking the fastest closing sectional.

But he was well beaten in the Balmoral Handicap on British Champions’ Day last year on his only run to date at Ascot, and this seven-furlong trip is probably on the sharp side for him.

Better over a mile

He could go well today, but he will be of more interest when he steps back up to a mile, and he has gone well at Goodwood in the past.

Great Acclaim travelled well into his race at Haydock last time, and has run well at Ascot in the past, but he just might be vulnerable to a less-exposed rival, while that may be the case too with last year’s winner Hickory, who still comes into it, even racing off a handicap rating that is 10lb higher than the mark off which he won last year.

Jamie Osborne’s horse hasn’t run yet this season, but he won the race on his debut last season too. He is eight now, but he was seven last year, when he became the first Victoria Cup winner aged older than five in 12 years.

It’s the unexposed four and five-year-olds that you are looking for ideally. Ten of the last 11 winners were four or five, as were 20 of the last 25, and 13 of those were four.

Defence Minister looked good in winning at Kempton on his debut this season, and a 4lb hike was not harsh, but he is short enough and his draw in stall one is not ideal.

Nine of the last 10 winners were drawn 11 or higher, and only two horses drawn lower than nine have made it into the first three in the race the last eight years.

Nor is Shiplake’s draw in stall three ideal. Again, he has to come into it, he was seriously impressive in winning at Southwell in January, and he was fully deserving of a hike of the magnitude of the 10lb with which the handicapper rewarded him for that.

Kevin Philippart De Foy won the Victoria Cup with a horse with a similar profile in Vafortino in 2022.

Big-price interest

But Storm Free is more interesting at a much bigger price. James Tate’s horse could only finish sixth in a seven-furlong handicap at Newmarket’s Craven meeting on his debut this season, but he ran better than his finishing position suggests.

He was over on the far side in a race which developed towards the near side, they literally finished in a diagonal line across the track, near side to far side. He didn’t appear to handle the dip too well, but he stuck to his task. Royal Velvet was an impressive winner, but Storm Free was beaten just over two lengths for second place, and the horse who finished just behind him, Sujet, ran well to finish second in that handicap that Dance In The Storm won at Chester on Wednesday.

Storm Free was progressive last season as a three-year-old. He had the pace to win his maiden over six furlongs, but he improved again when he stepped up to seven. His last two runs last season, his two runs over seven furlongs, are the best two runs of his life, and he left the impression that he was winning with more in hand than the one-and-a-half-length winning margin at Leicester on his final run last season.

The handicapper dropped him by 1lb for his Newmarket run, which was a bonus. That was his first run since being gelded, as well as his first run since October, so he could come on for it appreciably. He has never run at Ascot, but his record on all-weather reads 2232, and he proved that he could operate over a straight seven furlongs at Leicester in October.

A four-year-old who has raced just eight times, he has a good mix of experience and potential for progression, and he is probably nicely drawn in stall 13. James Tate had a good year last year, and he has his horses in good form again this season so far.

Chartwell Stakes selection

Dash Of Azure looks a little over-priced in the William Hill Chartwell Stakes at Lingfield. Ralph Beckett’s filly was nicely progressive last season as a three-year-old.

A good fifth in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, she did well to win a handicap at Thirsk in September, coming from well back in the field and charting her way through traffic to get up and win by a neck.

She was a little unlucky not to beat Cajole in a listed race at Ascot’s early October meeting. Back in the field again that day, she just couldn’t get a run when Ed Greatrex wanted to go forward.

He had to wait for the gap to develop and, when it did, she finished off her race well on the far side, failing by just a neck to catch the Cheveley Park Stud’s filly. She was in front two strides past the line.

That was on soft ground, but she goes well on good ground too, and this seven-furlong trip is ideal for her, it probably suits her better than a mile does.

She hasn’t run since she was beaten in a listed race at Longchamp in October, but she goes well fresh, she was impressive in winning on her seasonal return last year, and she could go well again today.

Recommended

Storm Free 2.20 Ascot – 1 pt e/w @ 18/1 (generally)

Dash Of Azure 2.40 Lingfield – 1 pt win @ 7/2 (generally)