YOU can tie yourself in knots with the draw for the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup.

It was all high-draw last year. The first three home emerged from stalls 20, 19 and 24. Indeed the first nine home were all drawn 12 or higher.

But it was good to firm ground last year, different to this year. In 2023, when the ground was good to soft, the first three home emerged from stalls 14, 12 and eight, followed by stalls 13, 10 and three. In 2022, good ground, the first three were drawn 12, nine and 18, followed by 13, 15 and eight. All middle. Five of the first six home were drawn in the middle third.

And, just in case you are still entertaining notions of allowing your Ayr Gold Cup bets be governed by the draw, in 2021 the winner emerged from stall 25, the highest stall, and the runner-up emerged from stall one, and they don’t get any lower than stall one.

And be careful if you think that the Bronze Cup or the Silver Cup can be a guide. A perfectly logical hypothesis, but last year, the year in which the first three home in the Gold Cup were drawn, respectively, 20, 19 and 24, the first three home in the Bronze Cup emerged from stalls eight, two and nine. And yes, there were 24 runners in the Bronze Cup too. And in the Silver Cup last year, the first two home were drawn high, 22 and 16, but the next four emerged from stalls two, nine, six and three.

There was a semblance of correlation in 2023. The first three home emerged from stalls 14, 12 and eight in the Gold Cup, all lowish if definitely not all lowest third and not really even lower half. It was 11, eight, four in the Silver Cup, six, seven, 16 in the Bronze Cup. But there was next to no correlation in 2022: 12, nine, 18 in the Gold Cup, 10, 13, five in the Silver Cup, 23, 25, two in the Bronze Cup. Not that the draw shouldn’t be a consideration in terms of assessing today’s feature, of course it should, but more with an eye on how the race might develop than in terms of absolutes, and definitely not the primary consideration, or even close to it.

Low-draw dominance

For what it’s worth, the low draws have been dominant this week so far at Ayr and, in the Bronze Cup on Friday, the far side dominated. The winner, Winged Messenger, emerged from stall 14, but he raced on the far side with the low-drawn horses. The runner-up, Woven, emerged from stall 16, and he did race near side, but he did best by far of the horses who raced near side. The next four home emerged from stalls one, seven, nine and four.

Northern Ticker is drawn 19 in the Gold Cup today and, when he lined up for a six-furlong handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, the sense was that that race would bring him forward for the Ayr Gold Cup, a race that is worth about 50% more than the York race. He won the York race, got home by a head and a neck and a head and a neck from his stable companion Commanche Falls and Pocklington and Two Tribes and Jordan Electrics, three of whom re-oppose today.

He has to carry a 5lb penalty today, so he will be racing off a handicap rating of 104, 2lb higher than the new mark he was awarded by the handicapper after his York win, so he meets the York horses on 5lb worse terms. But he has raced just seven times, he has the potential to improve by that and more, and you can see why he is favourite.

Purosangue will come into it if it rains more, in his first-time cheekpieces, as will Solar Aclaim, and Two Tribes is an obvious player, the International Handicap winner, the Stewards’ Cup winner.

Less obvious

Desert Falcon is not as obvious, but he comes into it too, and he could out-run his odds. Trained by Julie Camacho, who won the Bronze Cup on Friday with Winged Messenger, he won a seven-furlong handicap at Thirsk just over 12 months ago, and he has continued his progress since then.

His final run last season was in a division of a seven-furlong handicap at this meeting, which he won impressively off a mark of 79. He has raced just four times this season, he won at Haydock in early July off a mark of 83 and, last Sunday, he made all the running and kept on gamely to land a six-and-a-half-furlong handicap at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting.

He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that win, but his new mark is probably going to be in or around the effective mark of 93, off which he will race today, and he has the potential to be better than that.

He stays seven furlongs, and he handled the easy ground at Doncaster last time, on the first occasion on which he raced on anything softer than good. He should appreciate the extra accent that the ground will place on stamina today over six furlongs, in a race in which a proven ability to stay further than six is usually an asset anyway.

He is in tremendous form, he has won four times, finished second once and finished third once in his last six runs, he seems to be an improved sprinter since he joined Julie Camacho. And he is one for one at Ayr.

He has very little to find with the favourite on a strict line of form through Pocklington, and he is a multiple of his price. He likes to go forward in his races, and Rowan Scott, who rode him for the first time last Sunday, got the fractions spot on then. It’s not easy to make all in an Ayr Gold Cup, but Lethal Levi was on the sharp end from early in last year’s renewal, and you can see Desert Falcon travelling well in a prominent position on the far side for much of the race.

Beylerbeyi in the form of his life

STRESSFREE ran a big race to finish third in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock two weeks ago, doing best of the hold-up horses and doing well to get as close as he did in a race that was not run at a strong pace, writes Donn McClean.

He was tempting again in the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup at Newbury this afternoon, but the case for Beylerbeyi is just a little more compelling. Ian Williams’ horse is five now, he has raced 37 times in his life, he is not unexposed or anything like it, but he has been in the form of his life this season, and there could be more to come from him now over this type of trip.

He racked up a hat-trick during the summer over a mile and a half, rising from a mark of 76 to a mark of 91, and he put up a good performance off that mark when he finished fourth behind Paddy The Squire in a handicap at Hamilton, staying on well from the rear.

He was better again last Friday in the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster when, stepped up to a mile and six furlongs on the flat for the first time, he again stayed on well from the rear to take second place behind Subsequent.

He did really well to get as close as he did in a race in which the pace held up well. The other five horses who, with him, filled the first six places, occupied five of the first six places with six furlongs to run. He was 12th at that point, a position in which he remained until after they had left the three-furlong marker behind them.

As long as he has recovered from his exertions eight days ago, he could go well here again. Jamie Spencer takes over in the saddle for the first time, and he can ride him with the confidence that comes from knowing that he stays the distance now. A long home straight like Newbury’s suits him well, he goes well at Doncaster and Chepstow and Hamilton and York, and he could go well again.

Recommended

Beylerbeyi 2.05 Newbury 1pt win @ 6/1 (generally)

Desert Falcon 3.35 Ayr 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (generally)