THE ratings tell you that Audience should be a short price for the Group 3 Betfred John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock today.

He is 6lb clear of the next best on official ratings, Kinross, and Kinross has to carry a 5lb penalty, because he won the Group 2 Park Stakes in September, and Audience doesn’t, even though he won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes in May and the Group 2 Lennox Stakes in July.

So Audience receives 5lb from Kinross, a horse who is rated 6lb his inferior.

It may be that Audience will just win, it may be as simple as that. He is the best horse in the race, he has the best form, and the conditions of the race suit him well.

While he has won a Lockinge Stakes over a mile and while his last two runs have been over six furlongs, seven furlongs is probably his optimum trip.

But he is a horse who has come up short in the past when expectations have been relatively high, and who has delivered when expectations have been relatively low.

Strangely, he is zero for six when he has been sent off at an SP of 100/30 or lower. By contrast, if you had bet €1 on him every time he has been sent off at 4/1 or higher, you would be five for 12 and you would be showing a net profit of €52.50.

Kinross won this race as a four-year-old in 2021, and he is a player, but it was good to soft ground then.

Ralph Beckett’s horse has form on good and fast ground, he beat Audience in the Sky Bet City of York Stakes in 2023 on good to firm ground, he is usually at his best on ground that is good to soft or softer.

Appreciable rain would enhance the chance of Kinross, as it would the chance of Room Service.

Kevin Ryan’s horse finished off his race well from the rear to take second place behind Strike Red in a heritage handicap run on soft ground at York last October, and he stepped forward from that next time when he won a listed race at Doncaster, again on soft ground, coming with his run on the far side and holding on to beat Balmoral Lady by a neck.

Robust claims

That said, Alyanaabi’s claims are more robust. Owen Burrows’ horse was a top-class juvenile, he won the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes and he finished second behind City Of York in the Dewhurst, coping well with the soft ground.

He didn’t win last year, but he was highly tried. Fifth in the Guineas and fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes, he was gelded during the off-season and he put up one of the best performances of his life on his first run since, his seasonal debut, when he ran out a game winner of a listed race run over today’s course and distance.

He was good that day, he got out in front from stall one, and he didn’t see a rival thereafter. He kept on well to get home by over a length from the 110-rated Tiber Flow, who won this race last year before going on and winning the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes.

Alyanaabi raced over nine and 10 furlongs last season, but the drop back down to seven for his seasonal return suited him well. Also, it was his first run at Haydock, he obviously handled the track well.

It was his first run since August and his first run since being gelded, so there is every chance that he will improve for it and, a four-year-old gelding, out of a half-sister to Guineas winner Ghanaati, who has raced just nine times, there is every chance that he will progress again.

He is ideally housed again in stall one, and his forward-going style of racing is well suited to Haydock. Good ground would probably be ideal, but he has form on soft ground too, so he shouldn’t be unduly inconvenienced if the rains arrive.

Betfred Achilles Stakes

Shagraan looks over-priced too in the Listed Betfred Achilles Stakes earlier in the day. Mick Appleby’s horses did well to finish as close as he did to American Affair from his high draw in a good five-furlong handicap at York last time.

The winner was actually drawn higher, but he switched to race middle to far side. Shagraan did best of the horses who raced towards the near side.

That was just his second run of the season, he should come on for that, and he should appreciate the return to Haydock, a track at which he put up one of the best performances of his career in September in winning a five-furlong handicap, when he had the aforementioned American Affair back in third.

He has form over five and a half and six furlongs, but the balance of his form tells you that he is probably at his best over five. He is probably well-drawn today in stall two, and he could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Shagraan, 2.23 Haydock,

10/1 (generally), 1 point win

Alyanaabi, 3.33 Haydock,

4/1 (generally), 1 point win