YOU have to start your Badger Beers Handicap Chase analysis with Paul Nicholls. Since he started winning the race in 1999 with Flaked Oats, he has won 10 of the next 24 renewals, that’s 11 of the last 25, and that’s 44%.

He hasn’t won the race since 2022 but, last year, his sole representative Mofasa was never travelling and was pulled up after the cross fence, and was well beaten in each of his two subsequent races, while, in 2023, his two runners finished second and third behind the winner Blackjack Magic. The third horse that day was the 11-year-old Frodon, who won the race the previous year and who would run just one more time, in the 2023 King George, while the second horse was Threeunderthrufive, who is back for more this year.

The McNeill family’s horse raced off a mark of 147 that day, and he has to race off a mark of 152 today, now a 10-year-old, but the case for him is still strong. For starters, he improved on his Badger Beers Chase run later in the 2023/24 season, he finished a good second in a premier handicap chase at Chepstow next time off a 3lb higher mark, and he stayed on well to win another good handicap chase at Ascot the following February off a 5lb higher mark.

He showed a really good attitude that day, he dug down deep to get home by a length from Rapper, with the progressive Ascot specialist Victtorino back in fourth place.

Paul Nicholls’ horse ran a big race in the same Ascot race last February too, going down by just a nose to the same Victtorino, racing off a mark of 153.

He was unlucky to lose out too, it looked like he was up when they flashed past the line, but the bob of the head just went against him. Even so, it was a hugely game effort.

He was pulled up in each of his two subsequent races last season, but you can allow him both runs. The first was in the Grand National, obviously easily allowable, while the second was in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, in which he wasn’t travelling from a long way out. He had run just once previously at Sandown, in the previous season’s Bet365 Gold Cup when, again, he was a spent force from a long way out. There is a good chance that Sandown just doesn’t suit him. He has underperformed there now on the two occasions on which he has raced there.

We know that he goes well at Wincanton, and we know that he goes well on good ground, and we know that he has probably been trained for the race. He is Paul Nicholls’ only runner in a race that the trainer loves to win, at his local track, and he will have Harry Cobden for assistance.

He goes well fresh. His record after a break of 50 days or more reads 2111263821032. Also, he is back down to a handicap rating of 152, 3lb lower than the mark off which he finished third behind Victtorino in the Silver Cup at Ascot just before Christmas last year. And, he has had a wind operation since he last raced. He has top weight, but you know that he will be primed for today.

It might be worthwhile taking a chance too on the top weight for the Virgin Bet November Handicap at Doncaster, Grey Cuban, at the price.

Unlike at Wincanton, conditions are going to be testing at Doncaster, and that should be ideal for Grey Cuban. Also, he is a classy individual who could be up to giving away the weight.

Third behind subsequent Group 3 St Simon Stakes winner (and 2024 Coronation Cup runner-up) Hamish in a listed race at Chester in September, Hugo Palmer’s horse stepped forward from that next time when he battled on gamely to win a 10-and-a-half-furlong handicap at York, also under top weight.

The handicapper raised him by just 2lb for that to a mark of 107, and he proved that he was able for that type of mark when he finished third behind Crowd Quake at Doncaster on heavy ground two weeks ago.

He has never won over a mile and a half, but he hasn’t had many goes at the trip, and he races these days over 10 or 10 and a half furlongs as if he will appreciate a step back up in trip. He rallied after getting outpaced last time again, and he probably would have won if they had another half a furlong to travel.

He is proven on soft and heavy ground and, crucially, he is proven on soft and heavy ground at Doncaster. Two of his best runs have been on Town Moor, on heavy and good to soft ground. And his outside draw is probably a positive. You generally want to be away from the inside rail at Doncaster at this time of year when conditions are testing.

Recommended

Threeunderthrufive 3.30 Wincanton - 1pt win @ 100/30 (generally)

Grey Cuban 3.45 Doncaster - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (generally)