THE last Goodwood Cup winner to attempt to follow up in the St Leger? Stradivarius. Beat his elders at Goodwood in 2017, getting the 13lb age allowance, and ran well in the Leger but just came up short, rallying on the inside but ultimately finishing a half a length behind the Irish Derby winner Capri, and a short-head behind the subsequent Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner Crystal Ocean.

He was a length and a half in front of subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling too, in one of the hottest renewals of the oldest classic run in years.

Stradivarius was the first three-year-old to win the Goodwood Cup since 1990, and Scandinavia was the second, battling on strongly, as he did, six weeks ago, to get the better of his stable companion Illinois, the pair of them finishing clear of Sweet William.

Sweet William did nothing to detract from the strength of the form of that run on Friday when he won the Doncaster Cup, even though he was wholly expected to, at a track at which his record now reads 1211.

Aidan O’Brien’s horse is the logical favourite for the final classic today, and the market says that, like Stradivarius in 2017, he has most to fear from this year’s Irish Derby winner, his stable companion Lambourn, who is also this year’s Epsom Derby winner.

But Lambourn was behind Carmers when they finished fifth and second respectively behind Pride Of Arras in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, and it doesn’t make sense that he is available at twice the price of the dual Derby winner in places.

Building up

It’s not only his run in the Great Voltigeur that points to Carmers’ chance either. He has been building up to today.

Unraced as a juvenile, Paddy Twomey’s horse was weak in the betting before he made his racecourse debut in a mile and five-furlong maiden at Ballinrobe in May, but he belied the lack of confidence that appeared to be behind him in the pre-race market by staying on well to win nicely.

The market was much more comfortable about his chance in the Listed Yeats Stakes at Navan next time, and he duly obliged, again staying on strongly up the hill to win well.

He stepped forward from that next time to win the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, when he went for home early and left the impression that he was winning with more in hand than the bare winning margin, with Scandinavia back in fifth.

And the runner-up from the Queen’s Vase, Furthur, who is not without a chance today, enhanced the value of that form when he ran out an impressive winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time.

Carmers probably stepped forward again in the Great Voltigeur, a race that is one of the best pointers to the St Leger.

He came under a ride from early, but he stuck to his task admirably, just getting up to take second place in front of Stay True and Arabian Force. Remarkably, that 12-furlong trip was the shortest trip over which he had ever raced in his life, and he left the impression that he would appreciate a step back up in trip.

That was just his fourth race too, so he should come forward again for it. And it could sharpen him up for today’s test, a mile and six and a half furlongs at Doncaster, up Doncaster’s long home straight when they start to race early. This could be the ideal test for him.

Paddy Twomey’s horses continue to thrive, Black Caviar Gold’s win at Cork on Wednesday was his third win from eight runs for the week, which took his tally for the season in Ireland to 35, more winners that he has ever had before in Ireland in a season. It is another significant positive that Billy Lee is back from injury, and back kicking in winners.

Portland Handicap

Earlier in the day, Fivethousandtoone could be over-priced for the Betfred Portland Handicap. Tim Easterby’s horse ran better than the bare form of the run suggests in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time. He raced on the far side from his low draw that day.

He travelled well through his race against the far rail, but he was short of racing room when David Allan wanted to go forward. By the time he was into the clear, the winner Intervention had flown, but he kept on well once he got racing room to finish sixth overall and third on the far side.

The form of the Great St Wilfrid has already been enhanced by fourth-placed Alzahir, who beat Air Force One in a valuable handicap at York on Sunday.

Fivethousandtoone gets to race off the same mark of 87 today, which is 10lb lower than his all-weather mark.

The balance of his form suggests that he is not as good on turf as he is on all-weather, but that was his best run on turf for a while and, on his first run at Doncaster, where good all-weather form is often an asset, he could out-perform his turf mark.

Easy ground on turf is a positive, he gained his only win on turf on good to soft ground, and he didn’t run badly in the Dewhurst on soft ground as a juvenile, he was beaten less than five lengths by St Mark’s Basilica.

His high draw is probably a positive, there is plenty of pace drawn high, and Warren Fentiman is big value for his 5lb claim. His trainer’s horses are in really good form, two more winners yesterday took his tally for the week to eight, and his come-from-behind style of racing is well suited to Doncaster.

He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Fivethousandtoone 2.25

Doncaster 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (generally),

Carmers 3.40 Doncaster 1 pt win @ 9/2 (generally)