THE general sense is that you don’t want to be too close to the pace in the Betfair Imperial Cup.
You look back over recent renewals, recent winners: Iceo, Suprise Package, Langer Dan, London Prize. All held up. Others raced in mid-division early before making their way through the field. However, those renewals were all run on soft ground.
The only renewal run this decade on ground that was faster than soft was last year’s renewal. It was run on ground that was officially good to soft, and it was won by Go Dante, who was winning it for the second time, and who was positioned just better than mid-division from early.
The second and third, Wreckless Eric and Afadil, both raced prominently. It looks like the ground is going to better than soft today too and, even though it looks like there is lots of early pace in the race, it may still be that you don’t want to have to start your run from too far back.
The first three home from last year are all set to go again, and all three have chances.
Go Dante is 10 now and he is 5lb higher in the handicap than he was last year, and he was well beaten in each of his last two runs. But he was good in winning over today’s course and distance again at the Tingle Creek Chase meeting in December, which took his Sandown record to three from three.
Come up short
He has had a wind operation since he ran last, and you know that Olly Murphy has had this race in mind for the 2024 and 2025 winner for a while. You can see him running well again, but he just might come up short on ground that will probably be faster than ideal for him.
Wreckless Eric is 3lb lower than he was last year, and he ran into a cul de sac on the run to the final flight, and he made a mistake at the obstacle, before finishing with gusto and just failing to catch Go Dante.
He has been well beaten in each of his three runs this season to date, but perhaps the addition of cheekpieces and the return to Sandown will spark a revival.
Afadil is 1lb lower than he was last year, and he looked a likely winner when he kicked on at the final flight. He was just run down close home, but he goes into the race in good form, and you can see him going well on ground that he should like.
You can also see Mondo Man going well, the 105-rated horse off the flat who still has the potential to fulfil his potential over hurdles, and the likely fast pace should help him settle, and the Moores always have to be respected at Sandown, but he is short.
Rubber Ball could be flying a little under the radar. Down the field in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, Neil King’s horse stepped up in trip to two and a half miles, and then to three miles, but even two and a half seemed to stretch his stamina beyond its limit.
He beat Gerry Feilden Hurdle winner and William Hill Hurdle winner and Champion Hurdle aspirant Tutti Quanti over two miles at Newbury’s Willam Hill Hurdle meeting last year.
He looked good when dropped back to the minimum trip back at Newbury last Saturday, when he led from a long way out and kept on well to beat a progressive horse in Melon fairly easily, with the pair of them clear.
He was raised by 8lb for that win, but he won well and he is progressive, he proved when he beat Tutti Quanti at Newbury last February that he could operate put two quick runs together, and his trainer’s horses are in great form.
Joe Tizzard is another trainer who has his horses in good form, and his Tennessee Tango could go well in the EBF Novices’ Final.
The Affinisea gelding has been nicely progressive this season, and he landed short odds in winning his maiden hurdle at Plumpton last time.
He was nicely progressive before that, he is proven on good and good to soft ground and, a six-year-old who has raced just four times over hurdles, he has the potential to go beyond the handicap rating of 122 off which he races today.
Tennessee Tango, 1.50 Sandown, 14/1 (generally), 1 point each-way
Rubber Ball, 2.27 Sandown, 9/1 (generally), 1 point each-way