JUST the 24 runners through which to sift for the Bet365 Cambridgeshire today then, not 31, like there were last year, and that was after six came out, nor 34, like there were in 2023 after one came out.

The progressive three-year-olds are all the rage, which is perfectly understandable. They are the youngsters on the up, the ones punters note, the ones who have the potential to progress beyond the respective handicap ratings off which they race today, and it is not wholly surprising that three of the six three-year-olds in the race occupy three of the top four positions in the market.

The percentage call, though, is to let them run. That, if a three-year-old is going to win a Cambridgeshire at restrictive odds, you should let him or her go and do that. There have been just six three-year-old Cambridgeshire winners since the turn of the millennium, and there hasn’t been one since 2019. And it isn’t that they don’t try, or that the well-handicapped ones struggle to get into the race.

Seven three-year-olds ran in the race last year and, taking out almost 50% of the market, headed up by the 6/1 favourite Poniros - yes the same Poniros, the one who, although we didn’t know it at the time, would go on to single-hoofedly alter the conditions of the Triumph Hurdle - and the best that they could manage was sixth.

Ten three-year-olds ran in the Cambridgeshire in 2023, they made up almost one-third of the field and, headed up by Greek Order, then with the Charltons and Juddmonte, who was sent off as the 5/2 favourite, they came up short, although admittedly just a half a length short.

Five three-year-olds ran in 2022 and the highest-placed one was fifth. Four more ran in 2021, including Anmaat, the Champion Stakes winner of the future, who was sent off the 11/2 favourite and who finished second.

Percentage call

Of course, it may happen that a three-year-old wins today, Treble Tee, Fifth Column and Fort George could make up the all-ways Trifecta, but they are fashionable and they are short. They are all probably under-priced, and the percentage call is to look beyond them.

Tribal Chief is probably over-priced. David Menuisier’s horse has improved this season as a four-year-old, and he put up one of the best performances of his career last time when he won a mile handicap at Goodwood, getting home by a half length from Treble Tee.

The runner-up garnered much of the post-race focus that day. And, it is true, Treble Tee had to chart his way through traffic on the far side, and he didn’t have a whole lot of racing room along the inside rail close home. The Crisfords’ horse added ballast to the notion that he was an unlucky loser that day when he won impressively at Doncaster last time off a 2lb-higher mark.

But, in so doing, he also enhanced the form of the Goodwood race that Tribal Chief won, and he earned a penalty for today’s race. It is only a 4lb penalty, it means that he can race off an effective mark today of 101, which is 4lb lower than his new mark. He is a well-handicapped horse today.

But it all means that Tribal Chief gets to meet him on terms that are 2lb better than the terms on which he met him at Goodwood, despite the fact that he beat him by half a length, and he is more than twice his price.

Even away from the weights and measures, and direct comparisons with the favourite, Tribal Chief has plenty in his favour.

As a four-year-old who has raced 15 times, and just 10 times on turf, he has that mix of experience and potential to continue his progression that is ideal for these big-field handicaps.

Furthermore, he did well to win at Goodwood, coming from the rear as he did in a race that was not particularly strongly run, as evidenced by his finishing speed of over 103% of overall speed. He was fastest of all through each of the last three furlongs.

A 4lb hike for that win was fair, and he hasn’t run since then, almost five weeks ago, so he goes into today’s race nice and fresh. You can be sure that this has been his target since Goodwood.

He goes well too at Newmarket. He has run on the Rowley Mile twice, and he has finished second to Bullet Point on both occasions, putting up two of the best performances of his career. He has to prove that he can stay nine furlongs, his dam is a half-sister to Whistlejacket, and that is a little bit of a worry, there is no hiding place over the straight nine furlongs of the Cambridgeshire.

He has only been tried over 10 furlongs once, and it wasn’t a lack of stamina that beat him that day. He stays a mile well and he is two for two over a mile and half a furlong.

The step up by a half a furlong in trip should be fine, and that small unknown is more than accommodated by his odds anyway.

It used to be the case that he could give it all away at the start, he has been very slowly away in the past, but he was well away last time at Goodwood and Sean Levey, who rode him for the first time that day, is back on board.

All types of ground seem to come alike to him, and his high draw is probably a positive.

History tells you that you probably want to be high rather than low in the Cambridgeshire, eight of the last nine winners were drawn 21 or higher, and there are several horses who can go forward drawn close to him.

Haydock Handicap

Tilted Kilt could go well too in the Oddschecker Handicap at Haydock, back at a track at which he goes well. William Knight’s horse has never won at Haydock, but he has run there twice and he has finished second there twice.

Second there in the Silver Bowl in May to the progressive Teroomm, who was completing a hat-trick, he went back there last time and shared second place this time with Mezcala, a half a length behind Special Ghaiyyath. He was unlucky not to do better though.

Held up through the early stages of the race, he was still last of the eight runners passing the three-furlong marker as the field concertinaed towards the stands’ rail. He had to navigate his way through traffic through the final two furlongs, he had to switch towards the near side, and he finished off his race best of all to force a dead-heat for second place, closest at the finish.

The handicapper raised him by 1lb for that run to a mark of 83, which is fine, it is still 4lb lower than his peak, and he should get the solid pace that suits him well. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Recommended

Tribal Chief 3.40 Newmarket - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (generally)

Tilted Kilt 3.15 Haydock - 1 pt win @ 11/1 (generally)