THE Irish challenge for this afternoon’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch is strong. Ten strong, to be precise.
And of the seven different Irish trainers represented today, four of them have won the race before. Willie Mullins has won it three times, three times on the spin, Low Sun, Stratum, Great White Shark, rat-tat-tat.
Charles Byrnes won the race with Run For Oscar in 2022, Tony Martin won it in 2007 with Leg Spinner, Emmet Mullins won it with The Shunter in 2023. It’s a strong Irish challenge again this year for a race that has gone to an Irish trainer six times in the last seven years.
Reverend Hubert has a big chance of providing Charles Byrnes with his second Cesarewitch win in four renewals. The Zoffany gelding was seriously impressive in winning the Cesarewitch Trial three weeks ago over today’s course and distance, so we know that he can handle the track well.
More than that, the handicapper raised him by 10lb for that win to a mark of 89, but he gets to race off a mark of 83 today, under just a 4lb penalty. He is 6lb well-in.
Alphonse Le Grande is an obvious player, another who is, of course, proven over the course and distance, last year’s winner, who won it, then lost it, then won it again.
It is probable that Tony Martin has had the race in mind for him for a while, perhaps for 12 months, and he is only 6lb higher than he was last year. Seamie Heffernan is a great booking, and he won the race in 2018 on Low Sun.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained Dawn Rising is a player, he ran well in the Irish Cesarewitch less than two weeks ago and he is off the same mark today, as is Ndaawi.
Gordon Elliott’s horse is 3lb lower now than he was when he was sent off at 7/1 for the race last year, and he has won the Galway Hurdle in the meantime. The Shunter ran well for a long way in the big Connacht Hotel Qualified Riders’ race at the Galway Festival. Emmet Mullins’ horse is 12 now, but that was his first run since last November, and just his fourth since he won the Cesarewitch two years ago.
Appreciate the test
Hipop De Loire is interesting, Willie Mullins’ horse finished third in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup last time, and he should appreciate the test of stamina that the Cesarewitch presents, greater even, perhaps, than the Doncaster Cup.
That said, his stable companion Bunting is more interesting. A classy juvenile hurdler, Tony Bloom’s horse has earned a rating of 135 over hurdles, and he is still lightly raced on the flat.
He has the potential to go higher on the flat than the mark of 95 off which he races today.
He did really well in the Petingo Handicap at the Irish Champions’ Festival last time to get as close as he did to Happy Pharoah.
Well back in the field and wide from early, he stayed on well towards the near side to take fifth place, beaten a total of a short head for third.
That was a race in which the pace held up well, the winner’s finishing speed was over 106% of overall speed, and Bunting did best of the horses who raced in mid-division or worse from early.
He is not proven over this extreme trip on the flat, but he is a winner over two miles over hurdles and he shaped last time over a mile and five furlongs as if he would appreciate a tougher test of stamina. And William Buick is an obvious positive. Buick has ridden 18 horses on the flat in Britain for Willie Mullins in the last five years, more than any other rider.
Best of the British may be Beylerbeyi. Ian Williams’ horse didn’t have a lot of luck in-running in the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster last month, when he did well to get as close as he did from the rear.
He was fastest of all through each of the last two furlongs, and the other five horses who, with him, filled the first six places, all raced prominently.
It was a similar story last time in the Autumn Cup at Newbury, when he came from the rear in a race in which the prominent racers dominated.
The worry is that he has been busy, this will be his third hard race in the space of a month, and it will be his 11th race of the season. He is tough, but he is short enough with that worry in the back of your mind and, at a slightly bigger price, Bunting may represent better value.
Coral Sprint Trophy
Up at York, Rousing Encore could go well in the Coral Sprint Trophy.
Ruth Carr’s horse did well to get as close as he did in a five-and-a-half-furlong handicap at York in early September, when he raced on the near side of the track, and did best by far of the high-drawn horses.
The first four home were drawn, respectively, seven, four, one and nine. He finished fifth from stall 15 and racing on the stands side.
Eighth in the Ayr Silver Cup next time, he put it all together last time, back at Ayr, when he ran out an impressive winner of a six-furlong handicap on soft ground.
He is back up by 5lb today to a mark of 87, but he was only just beaten off that mark at York in June. He goes into the race in good form, he will appreciate the return to better ground, he goes well at the track, and his draw in stall 12 is just about low enough. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.
Rousing Encore, 3.15 York, 14/1 (generally), 1pt each-way,
Bunting, 3.40 Newmarket, 8/1 (generally), 1pt each-way