JAGWAR could be better than a handicapper, that’s for sure. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s horse won four of his five chases last season. He won the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham’s Cotswold Chase meeting in January, a race that is often a good pointer to the future, and he won the Plate back at Cheltenham in March, over the same course and distance.

He is back over the same course and distance again today in the Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup, back at Cheltenham, on the New Course, over two miles and four and a half furlongs, the course and distance over which he has put up the two best performances of his career.

J.P. McManus’ horse was 7lb higher at Cheltenham in March than he was at Cheltenham in January, and he is 9lb higher again today. They are talking Ryanair Chase for him, and that is not outlandish talk but, if he is going to be a Ryanair Chase horse, he is probably going to have to prove himself to be at least 20lb better than his current rating of 148, possibly 25lb if he is going to get close to his owner’s concert-pitch Fact To File.

He could make that type of progress. He is only six and he has raced just five times over fences, but that is all factored into his odds for today’s race.

On debut

On his debut two seasons ago, he was beaten in a Class 3 maiden hurdle at Aintree, and he only just got home from an unpromising position, racing off a mark of 118, in a 0-140 handicap chase at Wetherby on his seasonal return last year.

He has improved from his first run to his second in each of his two seasons racing in Britain, and, for all that he was all set to go in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month, there is every chance that he will improve from his first run to his second again this season. He is an exciting individual who is bursting with potential, and he may well win today, but he is short.

Kim Roque is a really interesting contender. A winner on his chasing bow for Daniela Mele in France last May, Joseph O’Brien’s horse would have got much closer to Kdeux Saint Fray at Cheltenham’s November meeting had he not stumbled badly on landing over the final fence. Jordans Cross came down at that fence, and he could enhance the form in the novices’ handicap chase at Doncaster before lunch, but, even so, in the end, Kim Roque did well to keep on as well as he did to just take second place from Jig’s Forge.

That was his first run since June, and it was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, and he could take a nice step forward now if he can jump with a little more fluency.

Progressive

But Vincenzo is more solid. Sam Thomas’ horse was a progressive novice chaser last season. Second behind subsequent Maghull Novices’ Chase winner Kalif Du Berlais in a three-runner novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, he stepped forward from that when he won at Sandown next time off a mark of 129, and he took another step forward on his final run last season when he finished second to Booster Bob in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March.

That was a bizarre race. He looked the likely winner when he responded to pressure and moved up to challenge Saint Segal on the run to the second last fence, but that was before Sean Bowen conjured a run out of Booster Bob that took him from stone last, and going nowhere, into the lead on the run-in.

A 3lb hike for that for Vincenzo was fair, and he proved that he was up to a mark of 137 with a fine run to finish second to Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month. That was his seasonal return and, while he would have been primed for that, it is still likely that he will progress for the run, his first since March and just his fifth chase.

Panic Attack won well in the end, but she enhanced the form quite spectacularly when she followed up in the Coral Gold Cup, and Vincenzo wasn’t helped by a mistake at the final fence. He kept on well up the hill in the end to finish a clear second, ahead of Hoe Joly Smoke.

A 2lb hike for that run was fair too. Dylan Johnston has since lost his 3lb claim, so he will be effectively 5lb higher now, but he should confirm places with the third horse from that race today even on 5lb worse terms. He stays this trip well, so the move to the stiffer New Course shouldn’t be a negative and it could be a positive. He is proven at the track and, a seven-year-old who has run just five times over fences, he has plenty of scope for further progression.

Handicap Chase

Later on the day, Gunsight Ridge looks over-priced in the Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog at betmgm.co.uk Handicap Chase. Olly Murphy’s horse is 10 now rising 11, but he ran well for a long way in the two-and-a-half-mile veterans’ chase that Eldorado Allen won at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Held up early on that day in a race in which the winner made most of the running, he made a mid-race move as they raced down the back straight to move into second place behind Eldorado Allen. He travelled well down the hill that day before, unsurprisingly, his mid-race exertions took a toll and his stamina started to ebb on the soft ground as they raced to the home turn.

That was the first time that he tried two and a half miles since March 2024, and he didn’t see it out. He should be happier today back over two miles, and he should improve for that run, his first since he finished fourth behind Sans Bruit in the Red Rum Chase at Aintree in April. He goes well at Cheltenham too.

On his only other run there, he would have given Matata a real race, and he would have beaten Calico, who is now rated 154, in a handicap chase on the Old Course at last year’s November meeting had he not come down at the final fence.

Sans Bruit would be a player today if he could return to his Red Rum form, even off an 11lb higher mark, but he has been well beaten in each of his two runs this season to date, and it is probably worthwhile waiting for the spring again with him. It is obviously significant that Harry Cobden rides David’s Well instead of Sans Bruit, and he is a wholly likeable and progressive horse for Chris Gordon, who had a great November. But he is short and, at a much bigger price, Gunsight Ridge is the bet.

Recommended

Vincenzo 1.50 Cheltenham -

1pt win @ 9/2 (generally)

Gunsight Ridge 2.25 Cheltenham - 1pt win @ 10/1 (generally)