DANCING Gemini is on the Charyn beat in the BoyleSports Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury this afternoon.
Potential unfulfilled as a three-year-old, winner of the Listed Doncaster Mile on his first run at four, winner of the Group 2 Sandown Mile on his second run at four.
Charyn came up one short in the Lockinge Stakes last year, thwarted by the 22/1 pillar-to-post victor Audience, and that was after he had done the hard work and got the better of Inspiral, the much better-fancied John and Thady Gosden/Cheveley Park Stud representative.
The postscript to last year’s Lockinge, of course, is that Charyn picked himself up, dusted himself down and went about his season, winning the Queen Anne and the Prix Jacques le Marois and the QE2 on his way to being acclaimed Timeform’s champion miler.
It’s not the postscript that is in trainer Roger Teal’s crosshairs at the moment, mind you, and Dancing Gemini goes into today’s race with a real chance of adding a Lockinge Stakes to his haul.
He didn’t win as a three-year-old, but he kept good company, he ran in the Derby and in the Eclipse and in the QE2, and he has been impressive in his two victories this season to date.
There is every chance that he will be able to make the step back up into Group 1 company. This is his trip now, and he is one for one at Newbury.
Group 1 player
In Rosallion, he will meet a genuine Group 1 player. Richard Hannon’s colt has only been beaten twice in his life.
Second in the 2,000 Guineas last season on his seasonal return, beaten by only Notable Speech, he did well to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh next time, coming from well back in the field to catch his stable companion Haatem, who won the Jersey Stakes next time at Royal Ascot.
Rosallion went to Royal Ascot himself and won the St James’s Palace Stakes, exacting his revenge on his Guineas conqueror Notable Speech, who obviously didn’t run his race.
It hasn’t been plain sailing since then though for the Blue Point colt and, while he could carry all before him over a mile this season, he is short and he could be vulnerable today.
By contrast, Tamfana looks over-priced for today’s race. David Menuissier’s filly was one of the eye-catchers of 2024 in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, when she finished off her race strongly to take third place behind Elmalka and Porta Fortuna.
She stepped up in trip after that, for the Prix de Diane over 10 and a half furlongs and for the Grand Prix de Paris over 12, but she found her metier again when she dropped back down in trip and won the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown over a mile, and she was even better next time when she ran out an impressive winner of the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes.
Have to improve
She was beaten by Dancing Gemini in the Bet365 Mile last time, and Dancing Gemini probably had more in hand than the bare winning margin, so she is obviously going to have to improve on that if she is going to win today, but there are reasons for believing that she can at least get closer to Roger Teal’s horse today.
For starters, he had already had a run, whereas she was making her seasonal debut. And she shaped as if she would progress for the run.
She was carrying a Group 1 penalty on the day, she was conceding 2lb to Dancing Gemini. Today, no Group 1 penalty obviously in a Group 1 race, she receives the 3lb fillies’ allowance. She goes well on fast ground, a truly-run race over a mile suits her well, and her two best runs have been over a straight mile.
Her chance may be a little under-rated by the market.
Aston Park Stakes
Tabletalk’s chance in the Sky Sports Racing Group 3 Aston Park Stakes earlier in the day may also be a little under-rated.
Tom Clover’s horse ran a big race on his seasonal return to finish second to Divina Grace in the John Porter Stakes, going down by a short head, when he had Sunway two lengths behind him in third.
He should progress from that, it was his first run since October and it was only the fifth run of his life.
He was a progressive three-year-old last season, he ran in the Derby and he won the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, and he proved last time that he could be competitive in pattern race company.
He stays a mile and six furlongs, but he proved last time that he can operate over this trip too. He goes well on fast ground and he obviously goes well at Newbury. He could take another step forward today.
It will be good to see Courage Mon Ami back, but it looks like Kings Gambit is Wathnan Racing’s number one, and, winner of the London Gold Cup on this day last year, he is a big player. But he is short and, at a bigger price, Tabletalk could be the value of the race.
Recommended
Tabletalk, 12.50 Newbury,
7/1 (generally), 1 point win
Tamfana, 2.35 Newbury,
5/1 (generally), 1 point win