SOME weekend this. Lots going on, on both sides of the Irish Sea. At least the Arc trials were moved to last weekend.
There are twice as many Irish runners in the Betfred St Leger at Doncaster as there are British runners in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, six in total, four trained by Aidan O’Brien, two trained by Joseph O’Brien, and about 1/10 at current odds that the prize comes back this way.
It is difficult to choose between the top two Ballydoyle colts, Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard. Christmas Day is of course the Derby winner, bidding to become a rare Derby winner these days who follows up in the St Leger, and he is the shorter price of the two.
But there could be more to come from Pierre Bonnard. He was high in the Derby list when he went into winter quarters after winning the Zetland Stakes and the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at the back-end of last season.
To put it into context, he was sent off as the even-money favourite for the Ballysax Stakes on his debut this season, when he finished seventh, six lengths behind the winner, the aforementioned Christmas Day, who was sent off at 11/1.
Just beaten by James J Braddock in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial next time, Pierre Bonnard was well beaten on soft ground in the Derby, but he was much better in the Irish Derby next time, and his run in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last time was a step forward again from that. He made good ground on the inside early in the home straight that day to hit the front at the two-furlong marker. He only gave best to Arc-bound Maltese Cross, with Christmas Day over two lengths behind him in third.
Christmas Day was conceding 5lb to his stable companion that day, and that factor should obviously bring them closer together today in theory, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pierre Bonnard take a step forward now with that experience under his belt. By Camelot and out of the top-class mare Sultanina, who won a Nassau Stakes over 10 furlongs but who also won a Pinnacle Stakes over 12, the mount of Wayne Lordan, he could improve too for stepping up in trip.
Enceladus has been challenging Christmas Day for favouritism all week, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him run a big race. Joseph O’Brien’s horse has been progressing nicely all year, from winning his maiden at Cork on his seasonal return over 10 and a half furlongs, to winning the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, to last time, when he stepped up again and won the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
He stayed on well to win the Goodwood race, a race that has been a good pointer to the St Leger in the past. This is another step up in grade for him, but he has raced just five times, he remains progressive, and he could be well able for it.
Betting proposition
He is short though and, at a much bigger price, his stable companion Highwayman represents a more palatable betting proposition. Unraced as a juvenile, the Persian King colt was beaten in each of his first four races, but those races were all over distances that ranged from six and a half furlongs to a mile.
He took a nice step forward when he stepped up in trip to 11 and a half furlongs at Killarney in July, and he ran out a seriously impressive winner, coming further and further away from his rivals the more the race went on, and winning by nine lengths in the end.
His trainer pitched him into the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes at Leopardstown on his next run, and Highwayman proved that he was up to that task.
He made good ground towards the far side early in the home straight, probably not on the fastest part of the track, out of necessity, and he stayed on well to win impressively from talented rivals Cannes and Piazza San Marco and Wyman.
They didn’t go a great pace early on in that race, as evidenced by his finishing speed of over 111% of overall speed, but he impressed with the manner in which he was able to quicken off it. He dipped below 12 seconds for each of the last three furlongs. Of course, this is another step up in grade for Joseph O’Brien’s horse, but he goes into the race on the back of a career best, and there is every reason to believe that he can step forward again.
He is proven over this type of trip, so Saffie Osborne can be confident in his stamina, and he is fully deserving of the opportunity to prove that he belongs in this class.
Portland Handicap
The Betfred Portland Handicap is obviously very difficult, it usually is, but Toca Madera has plenty in his favour.
David O’Meara’s horse has been beaten in each of his last seven runs, but he has been running well in defeat.
At York’s Ebor meeting, he travelled really well into his race on the far side, he looked the most likely winner when he moved easily into the lead on the run to the furlong marker, but his run flattened out from there and he finished third.
Then last time at Goodwood, on ground that was probably softer than ideal for him, he again travelled into the race nicely on the near side, and only gave best in the end to the progressive Naana’s Sparkle, finishing clear of the rest.
He goes into today’s race in good form, and he has proven that he can operate off a mark in the mid-90s. His current mark is actually 7lb lower than his peak.
More importantly, he goes well on good ground and he goes well at Doncaster. He won a handicap on Town Moor in June this year on his only run to date at the track. His draw in stall 11 is fine, he has potential front-runners I’m Next and Station X close by in 15 and 16, so he should get a nice tow into the race. He could go well.
Recommended:
Toca Madera, 2.20 Doncaster, 9/1 (generally), 1 point each-way
Highwayman, 3.35 Doncaster, 12/1 (generally), 1 point win