WE’RE into the traffic-lights weeks of the year now. Green for flat and green for National Hunt, in turn and intermittently. Chronologically: flat (Lincoln, Dubai World Cup, Gladness Stakes), National Hunt (Irish Grand National), National Hunt (Aintree Grand National), flat (Craven), National Hunt (Scottish National), flat (Greenham, Park Express), National Hunt (Bet365 Gold Cup), National Hunt (Punchestown), flat (Guineas).

Then flat for a while.

It’s green for flat today, a day on which the William Hill Lincoln presents a conundrum. It used to be the case that you looked for the unexposed four-year-old in the Lincoln, the best progressive miler from last year’s Classic generation. Four-year-olds won 11 of the 18 renewals that rolled between 2003 and 2021, and all five that took place between 2016 and 2021.

But three of the last four winners were five and one of them, unusually, was seven. The 2023 winner Migration was the first horse aged older than six to win the Lincoln since Hunters Of Brora won it before the turn of the millennium.

Even so, logic dictates that you still start your search with the four-year-olds, the horses who have the potential to out-perform the respective handicap marks off which they race today.

La Botte is top of the list and top of the market. Harry Eustace’s horse was progressive last year as a three-year-old. He won his maiden at Newcastle on this day last year and, after finishing a good fourth in the Listed King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, a race that is often a good pointer to the Jersey Stakes, he ran a massive race in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, going down by just a neck to Arabian Story.

He didn’t race after that last season, but his return at Wolverhampton three weeks ago was most encouraging. Held up through the early stages of that race, he was wide into the home straight, but he finished off his race really well under just a hands and heels ride to finish a close-up fourth. And the runner-up from that race, First Principle, won back at Wolverhampton next time off a 1lb higher mark. He is now 4lb higher than he was then.

La Botte gets to race off the same mark of 104, which is just 5lb higher than the mark off which he was just beaten in the Britannia. He is a leading player for today’s race.

Eternal Force is also a leading player. He won his last three races last season after being gelded, improving from a mark of 83 to a mark of 96, and he has the potential to continue to progress now beyond that mark.

He is trained by William Haggas, who has trained two of the last 10 winners of the race, and four of the last 20, and five of the last 33, more Lincoln winners than any other trainer, and it is probable that this has been his target for a while.

But they have both been priced up defensively and, at about three times their price, Rogue Diplomat is more interesting.

Progressive

James Owen’s horse has had more racing than the two horses who are at the top of the market, but he is still a progressive four-year-old who finished off last season strongly and from whom there could be more to come this season.

He won each of his last four races last season, which saw his handicap rating rise from 81 to the mark of 95 off which he races today. But his new mark is just 3lb higher than the mark off which he won on his final outing last season, and that was not an insurmountable hike.

He only got home by a nose in that handicap at Doncaster in October, but he left the impression that he won with more than that in hand. He travelled well through his race and he picked up nicely out in the centre to hit the front before they reached the furlong marker. He kept on well from there to retain his advantage and, while Midnight Gun came at him, it always looked like he was holding him.

Those last four runs were all over seven furlongs but, a half-brother to Moving Water, a quadruple winner over hurdles over two and a half miles and further, he ran over 10 furlongs as a juvenile, and he stays seven furlongs well. There is every chance that he will get a mile all right now. He might even improve for the step back up in distance.

He goes well on easy ground, his low draw is probably a positive, his trainer’s horses are in good form and, importantly, he is two for two at Doncaster.

Cammidge Trophy

Earlier in the day, Spycatcher could be the answer to the William Hill Cammidge Trophy again.

Karl Burke’s horse is eight now, but he finished off his season strongly last year, winning a Group 3 race at Chantilly in October, and then carrying the 5lb penalty that he earned for that to victory in the Listed Wentworth Stakes at Doncaster in early November. The runner-up from the Wentworth Stakes, Zoum Zoum, enhanced the form of that run when he finished second in another listed race at Southwell next time.

Those two performances, his two most recent performances, are up there with the best performances of Spycatcher’s career to date. Also, his latest win took his record at Doncaster to two from four.

His other victory at Doncaster came in this race last year, when he quickened up smartly out in the centre and won by a cosy neck from Iberian, with the two of them nicely clear of their rivals. He goes well fresh, his record after a break of 100 days or more reads 11131, and Karl Burke has his horses in good form. He has had two winners from just five runners in the last two weeks, he is operating at a strike rate of 24% for 2026 to date, and it is probable that he has had this race in mind again for Spycatcher for at least a little while.

Recommended

Spycatcher - 1.50 Doncaster 1 pt win @ 4/1 (generally)

Rogue Diplomat - 3.32 Doncaster 1 pt ew @ 12/1 (generally)