IT has been some week so far on Newmarket’s July Course for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby and William Buick.
When Distant Storm just got up to get the better of Constitution River by a short-head in the juveniles’ seven-furlong maiden yesterday, that made it six winners for the owner/trainer/rider combination at the meeting.
There were 12 races run at the July meeting up to that point, and the owner and the trainer and the rider had combined to win six of them.
Distant Storm was William Buick’s 11th ride at the meeting, and his sixth winner. That’s a strike rate of over 54% at the July meeting. He had two seconds as well.
He numbered the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes and the Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes among those wins, and he burst through the 2000-winners-in-Britain barrier.
It could get even better for the owner and trainer and rider today too, because they team up with Notable Speech in the July Cup, and the Dubawi colt is a strong favourite. Supplemented for the race on Monday at a cost of £36,000, last year’s Guineas winner and Sussex Stakes winner shaped last time in the Queen Anne as if he would appreciate a drop back down in distance.
He may well have the pace for a July Cup, but it is a big ask. He hasn’t raced over six furlongs in his life. He hasn’t raced over seven either. His 10 runs have all been over a mile. Confidence in him is justifiably high, but all of that is reflected in his odds.
Conventional run
Whistlejacket has had a much more conventional run to the July Cup. Aidan O’Brien’s horse is one for one on the July Course for starters, over today’s course and distance.
He was impressive in winning the July Stakes last year, at this meeting, when he made all.
Winner of a listed race at Navan on his debut this season, Aidan O’Brien’s horse was allowed go off at a big enough price for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
He only finished sixth there, but his run can be marked up to a fair degree as he didn’t have any racing room through at a crucial part of the race when Ryan Moore wanted to go forward. He could be a big player today, but the market has cottoned onto his chance.
Inisherin would be a player if he could bounce back to the form that he showed in the early part of last season, or on his debut this season in the Duke of York Stakes.
Winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last year, he was sent off a warm favourite for the July Cup on the back of that run, but he could only keep on to finish fifth.
There is a chance that his first-time cheekpieces will sharpen him up, but he will need to bounce back, and there is a chance that six furlongs on the July course is sharp enough. He won over a mile in the early part of his three-year-old season.
Better value
Flora Of Bermuda is a big player, she has proven now that she can operate on fast ground as well as on soft and she put up a really good performance in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, but she is short enough and, at a much bigger price, it may be that one of the other two females in the race, Believing, who races today for the final time, represents better value.
She was top class last season over five furlongs. She won the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh and she was just beaten by Bradsell in the Nunthorpe, doing best of those who raced on the near side, and she was just beaten by Bradsell again in the Flying Five, when she had to deliver her challenge on the far side.
Then she finished a close-up third in the Prix de l’Abbaye, doing well to get as close as she got from the rear.
Bought by M.V. Magnier at the December sales, the George Boughey-trained mare stepped back up to six furlongs for the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in April, and she kept on well to win nicely.
You have to allow her that latest run in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, for which she was sent off as favourite, but you can.
She was racing on the far side, in a race that developed towards the near side, and she was back down to five furlongs.
It was her first since early April, and it was her first run back in Britain since last August. She should appreciate the step back up to six furlongs today. A sharp six furlongs is probably ideal.
Her draw in stall 11 is not ideal, by contrast. You probably want to be closer to the stands rail than that, but it is a marginal call, and there is lots of pace drawn high. She could get a nice tow into the race from Spy Chief in 14, and she could out-run her odds by a fair way. A victory would be some way to bring the curtain down on your racing career.
Fillies’ handicap
Earlier in the day, Royal Velvet’s chance may have been under-rated by the market in the really competitive seven-furlong fillies’ handicap.
Miss Information and Miss Nightfall dominate the market after good runs at Royal Ascot, but Royal Velvet put up one of the best performances of her career too last time on the July course just two weeks ago.
She looked a likely winner as they raced deep inside the final furlong, and she just gave best close home, going down by a short head and a neck to Cracking Gold and Great Acclaim, who ran well in a competitive handicap at Newmarket on Thursday. Back in fourth was Physique, who finished second in the opening handicap yesterday.
That was Royal Velvet’s first run over seven furlongs since June last year. The drop down from a mile suited her well, and she remains unexposed over this trip. A 1lb hike is not harsh. She goes well on the Newmarket courses, stall one probably is a positive and the booking of William Buick definitely is. She could go close.
Recommended:
Royal Velvet 2.12 Newmarket 1 pt win 13/2 (generally)
Believing 4.35 Newmarket 1 pt win 9/1 (generally)