STRANGE that Heltenham is a Newbury specialist.
Dan Skelton’s horse is back in Berkshire again this afternoon for the BetVictor Handicap Chase, just three weeks after he won the Greatwood Gold Cup over the same course and distance.
That win took his Newbury record to four wins and one second from six runs, all six over today’s course and distance, four of those runs and two of those wins on good to soft ground.
He stuck to his task well last time to get home by a half a length from Blow Your Wad, with the pair of them coming nicely clear of Teddy Blue.
That form has been enhanced since too, with Blow Your Wad finishing fourth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last week, beaten a total of a length and a half by Johnnywho, and Teddy Blue winning a good handicap chase at Kempton last Saturday.
Heltenham should be a player again today, but he was a 20/1 shot when he won the Greatwood Gold Cup, and he is a small fraction of that price today. Also, the handicapper raised him by 6lb for that win, to a mark of 140. He has never won off a mark higher than 136, and he is a nine-year-old who has raced 26 times over fences.
He is probably going to have to put up a career-best performance if he is going to win today. And he wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much more.
Over-priced
Knappers Hill was nicely backed yesterday, and he is a player for sure, but Prairie Wolf looks over-priced. Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith’s horse is nine now too, but he goes into the race in really good form.
He ran well at Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup meeting in November when he finished third behind Booster Bob in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Handicap Chase. The two-mile-and-six-and-a-half-furlong trip probably stretched his stamina beyond its limit that day, and he came home without one of his shoes.
He put that run behind him when he stayed on well to get the better of Josh The Boss back over two and a half miles at Aintree in December, and, after a write-offable run at Cheltenham in January, he was good again last time at Newcastle in winning another handicap chase over the intermediate trip, beating Josh The Boss into second place again.
He was in front from the third last fence that day, he probably idled when he got to the front, and he left the impression that he was winning with at least a little bit in hand and the third horse Primoz came out and won easily at Ayr two weeks ago. He is now 9lb higher than he was then.
A 3lb hike for Prairie Wolf was not harsh. This intermediate trip suits him well, he ran well on his only visit to Newbury, and good to soft ground is ideal. Jack Tudor gets on well with him, he rode him at Newbury last time and he rode him to victory at Aintree.
Kelso Handicap Chase
Joecooker could also out-run his odds in the BetWright Novices’ Handicap Chase at Kelso 15 minutes later. There are reasons why you can mark him up on the bare form of each of his last three runs.
At Wetherby on St Stephen’s Day, he moved to the front, travelling easily, before the third last fence, and was just run down close home by Genois, after travelling like the most likely winner for much of the race.
At Newcastle in January, he was travelling well just behind the leaders early in the home straight, when Fat Harry made a bad mistake just in front of him at the fourth last fence. He lost valuable ground and momentum at that point, and he could never really get back into the race. Jamie Hamilton wasn’t hard on him once his winning chance had gone.
Then at Kelso last time, he travelled well through his race, but the two miles and five and a half furlongs on heavy ground probably stretched his stamina beyond its limit. He should be happier back on better ground today.
The handicapper dropped him by 3lb for that run, and that was generous. It leaves him in a mark of 113, which is 3lb lower than his hurdles mark and 7lb lower than his peak over hurdles. And even though this is a Class 2 contest, it actually represents a drop in grade from the 0-130 handicap that he contested last time at Kelso.
First time cheekpieces to go with his hood could elicit further improvement, and his trainer Rebecca Menzies has had three winners from eight runners since last Friday, including Lihyan, who stayed on gamely to win a good staying handicap hurdle at Newbury yesterday.
Prairie Wolf, 2.25 Newbury, 5/1 (generally), 1 point win
Joecooker, 2.40 Kelso, 10/1 (generally), 1 point win