This year’s Chester Cup is having a big impact on the top of the market for this afternoon’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

East India Dock stayed on well to win the Chester Cup, but James Owen’s Triumph Hurdle third is 8lb higher now than he was then, and he was beaten in the Ascot Stakes last week. He had to have had a hard race at Royal Ascot, and that was only 11 days ago, so you can understand why Who’s Glen is just ahead of him in most bookmakers’ lists.

Who’s Glen didn’t have a lot of luck in-running in the Chester Cup either. Back in the field from early in a race in which the prominent racers did best, he made ground around the inside as they raced around the home turn, but he couldn’t really close on the leaders on the run to the line.

But he did best of the hold-up horses. The four horses who finished in front of him, including East India Dock, all raced prominently. Andrew Balding’s horse is relatively lightly raced, he could progress again for that run and, a winner over a mile and six and a half furlongs, he could appreciate the drop back down to two miles today. He is off his Chester Cup mark today of 93, he is 7lb better off with East India Dock, he has a nice high draw and he comes here relatively fresh, having skipped Royal Ascot.

But he is short and he is zero for six on all-weather.

On the draw, while instinctively you might think that you want an inside draw in the Northumberland Plate, recent evidence suggests that the contrary is actually the case. It’s a bit like the draw over a mile and a half at Ascot in that regard. Seven of the last eight winners of the Northumberland Plate were drawn 10 or higher. Also, seven of the first eight home in last year’s renewal were drawn 14 or higher, and the first four home in 2023 were drawn 10 or higher, as were the winner and the fourth in 2022.

Golden Rules is drawn in stall 11, and that may just be high enough because, draw aside, he has lots in his favour.

Tom Faulkner’s horse is eight now, but he has obviously had his issues and, as a consequence, he is a really lightly-raced eight-year-old. Out of a sister to Ribblesdale Stakes winner Magic Wand, and winner of a novice stakes over a mile and five and a half furlongs as a three-year-old for John Gosden and Anthony Oppenheimer, he ran a big race in the 2023 Northumberland Plate. Racing off a mark of 94, he was a little keener than ideal through the early part of the race, and he didn’t have a lot of racing room early in the home straight. He did well in the circumstances to keep on as well as he did to finish second behind Calling The Wind.

He didn’t run again after that until he went to Kempton at the end of March and finished fourth in a two-mile handicap behind Cool Party and Who’s Glen. He led from early that day, and he kept on admirably after he was passed at the two-furlong marker as lack of a recent run probably told. He is down another 2lb in the handicap, he is 3lb better off with Who’s Glen today but, more importantly, he could improve significant for that run, his first run in 637 days.

He is down to a mark of 90 now, 4lb lower than he was when he finished third in this race two years ago. It is probable that his trainer has had this race as his target for a while and, given his apparent fragility, it is probable that he will be at concert pitch today. We know that he goes well at the track and that he stays the trip, and he could run a big race.

Earlier in the day, Ferrous could also run a big race in the JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes. Jack Channon’s horse has lots to find on Kind Of Blue on ratings, but last year’s British Champions Sprint Stakes winner has to concede 7lb and, having missed Royal Ascot, the Wathnan Racing horse may not be at concert pitch today.

This is a big jump up in class for Ferrous, from a handicap into a Group 3 contest, but he has won his last three, he has improved from a mark of 94 to a mark of 107, and he deserves his shot at a Group 3 race. He won well last time too, he had to race away from the favoured stands rail from his low draw, but he kept on well to win nicely.

That was his first run at the track, he is one for one at Newcastle and he is five for seven on all-weather. He goes into the race on an upward trajectory and in the form of his life, and he has a nice draw in stall nine, one off the stands rail.

Lambourn obviously sets the standard in tomorrow’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, the Epsom Derby winner bidding to become the 20th horse to complete the Epsom Derby/Irish Derby double, and to give Aidan O’Brien a remarkable 17th win in the race.

But, at the prices, it may pay to give Pride Of Arras another chance. He was well beaten in the Derby, but, if Ralph Beckett’s horse can return to the level of form that he showed in winning the Dante at York last month, that would bring him right into it. He has raced just three times in his life, and he is bred to be better over a mile and a half than over an extended 10 furlongs. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Recommended

Golden Rules 3.15 Newcastle 1pt e/w at 8/1 (generally)

Ferrous 2.10 Newcastle 1pt win at 13/2 (generally)

Pride Of Arras 4.10 Curragh Sun 1pt win at 8/1 (generally)