ROYALE Pagaille is back again, Betfair Chase, Lancashire Chase if you want, bidding for an unprecedented hat-trick.

There have been Betfair Chase specialists through the years, Bristol De Mai and Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti and even Kauto Star, although he was obviously a specialist in much more than the Betfair Chase.

Kauto Star won the Betfair Chase four times, the first in 2006, the fourth in 2011. And he may well have completed a hat-trick in 2008 had he not sprawled on landing over the final fence and left the way clear for Snoopy Loopy to beat Tamarinbleu. And that would have bridged the gap between 2007 and 2009 and made it four in a row for Paul Nicholls’ superstar. As it was, he won four, but no more than two in a row.

Cue Card won the race in 2013, and he won it again in 2015 and in 2016, but his hat-trick bid was thwarted in 2017 by Bristol De Mai.

Bristol De Mai then started a sequence of his own, winning the race again in 2018 and in 2020, but his bid for three in a row, and therefore four in a row, was foiled in 2019 by Lostintranslation.

It is a race that fosters repeats. There have been 20 runnings of the race, and there have been just 11 different winners. But no horse has won three in a row.

Against Royale Pagaille’s hat-trick bid is his age. He is 11 now and, while he was emulating Cue Card and Snoopy Loopy in winning the race last year as a 10-year-old, Kauto Star is the only 11-year-old to win it, and it’s safe to say that, admirable performer though Royale Pagaille is, he is no Kauto Star.

Also against Royale Pagaille is Grey Dawning, who moved to the front on the run to the final fence last year, traded at 1.06 on the sponsor’s machine, got in tight to the final obstacle, lost momentum, and ultimately succumbed to the gallant winner.

Bad mistake

Much has been made of Grey Dawning’s mistake at the final fence last year but, while it wasn’t ideal, it wasn’t a desperately bad mistake. It was a momentum-alterer, that’s for sure, and, on that heavy ground, it was significant.

It wasn’t as bad as the mistake that Royale Pagaille made at the fourth last fence, for example, of which not much has been made at all. Venetia Williams’ horse could be on his way out to an attractive price. Remember, it’s a specialists’ race.

Haiti Couleurs adds an extra dimension, the National Hunt Chase winner, the Irish National winner, who is stepping up to Grade 1 company for the first time, but who has race fitness on his side, having won over hurdles at Newbury earlier this month.

Stellar Story adds the Irish dimension and, while Gordon Elliott’s horse has won just once over fences in his life, he won the Albert Bartlett Hurdle as a novice hurdler, and he finished second in the Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham in March. He is no forlorn hope.

Betfair Stayers’ Handicap

From a betting perspective, however, the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle 35 minutes earlier is a more attractive contest. Ma Shantou is a big player, but he has been put in fairly short on the back of his victory in the Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham’s October meeting.

Emma Lavelle’s horse ran out an impressive winner, no question, but he was held up and ran wide in a race in which it was probably an advantage.

The first four home in the race all raced wide and three of the four were held up, they were all 14th or worse with a mile to race. A 9lb hike for that win was not insignificant, and it sees him set to carry 11st 7lb in a race in which Ma Shantou’s erstwhile stable companion Paisley Park is the only horse to carry more than 11st 5lb to victory in the last decade.

Paisley Park went on to win the Long Walk Hurdle, the Relkeel Hurdle and the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season.

Ma Shantou is a really likeable, progressive young staying hurdler, and he may be progressive enough to take that type of hike in his stride but, just below the top staying novices last season, he is short.

Hartington is also progressive. Winner of his maiden hurdle over two miles on good ground at Newbury last November, Joe Tizzard’s horse put up his best performance last season when he stepped up to two and a half miles and finished second behind Guard Duty in a handicap hurdle run on soft ground at Windsor in January.

He was carried to his right on the run to the final flight that day but he kept on well to finish a good second.

He was off the track after that until he made his debut this season in a two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle at Carlisle three weeks ago, and he was impressive in winning. He stayed on admirably on the soft ground to get up and beat Florida Dreams by a neck. Florida Dreams is a talented individual who had already had a run (over fences) this season, and it was a good performance by Hartington to out-stay him.

A 3lb hike for that win was more than fair. He should progress for that run, his seasonal debut, and that was just his sixth run over hurdles, so he has bags of scope for further progression this season.

The step up to three miles is an unknown, but he saw out his race well last time up Carlisle’s stiff finish on soft ground over two and a half miles, leaving the impression that he could do even better with a sterner test of stamina. With Brendan Powell at Ascot to ride JPR One in the Hurst Park Handicap Chase, and others, Sean Bowen is obviously a brilliant booking.

Last year’s winner, Shoot First, is a danger to all, Charles Byrnes’ horse is set to race off a mark of 145, just 6lb higher than the mark off which he won the race last year. Navajo Indy will also be a player if he stays the trip, and he raced last season over two miles, and on his seasonal return over two and a half, as if he would appreciate a greater test of stamina.

Berkshire National

Our Power could be the answer to the Berkshire National at Ascot. Sam Thomas’ horse is 10 now, but he put up one of the best performances of his career on his final run last season, when he finished third in the Scottish Grand National.

He probably found that four-mile trip just beyond him, but he stays three and a quarter miles well, and it was only in the final throes of the Scottish National that he started to wilt. He and the winner Captain Cody were the only two horses who were still on the bridle around the by-passed third last fence.

He goes well at Ascot, he won a good three-mile handicap chase as a seven-year-old on his only run there, racing off a mark of 136. He goes well on the ground and Sam Thomas has his horses in really good form. He has had three winners from just eight runners in the last two weeks, and Vincenzo went very close in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Our Power got no further than The Chair in the Grand Sefton at Aintree on his seasonal return, but you can easily allow him that, and the distance of that race probably would have been on the sharp side for him these days anyway. Back up to a marathon trip and, back at Ascot, he could go well.

Recommended:

Hartington 2.25 Haydock - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (generally)

Our Power 2.05 Ascot - 1pt win @ 6/1 (generally)