THE first four home in the Schweppes Handicap, run over seven furlongs at Ascot early last month, could all have a big say in the BetMGM Challenge Cup, set to be run over seven furlongs at Ascot this afternoon. Native Warrior came out on top last month, Karl Burke’s horse winning by one and a half lengths and a neck and two and three-quarter lengths from Great Acclaim and Mirabeau and Thunder Roar, and he is a logical favourite for today’s race, but you can make cases for all four.

Native Warrior is lightly raced and progressive. He was racing for just the 12th time last month, and he put up his best performance yet. He made smooth progress from the rear, and he kept on strongly after he hit the front to win impressively. It was his first run at Ascot too, he proved that he could handle the track.

He was well on top. Held up early on, he sluiced through his field on the far side and he came away from his rivals to win impressively. An 8lb hike may not be sufficient to arrest his forward march.

Trainer Karl Burke has his horses in tremendous form, and the Wootton Bassett gelding will have Jamie Spencer for company again, one of the best in the business on Ascot’s straight track, and he goes into the race in good form. There’s everything to like about him, except his price. The market has been onto him for a while.

Great surprise

Great Acclaim also goes into the race in good form. Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse sprang a surprise in first-time blinkers at Glorious Goodwood in winning a competitive seven-furlong handicap, and he has continued his upward surge in blinkers since. He won at Chepstow next time, then he finished second at Goodwood and he finished second in that race at Ascot, all of which resulted in the raising of his handicap mark of 89 to the mark of 100 off which he races today, 3lb higher than he was last time at Ascot.

Also, at Ascot, he raced up with the pace in a race in which the other protagonists came from behind. The sectionals were solid, not overly fast, as evidenced by the winner’s finishing speed of just over 101% of overall speed, almost bang on RaceIQ par. But the other six horses who, with Great Acclaim, filled the first seven places were all ninth or worse passing the three-furlong marker, and five of them were 12th or worse. He probably did well to keep on as well as he did to take second place. He is a hugely likeable performer.

Thunder Roar, fourth at Ascot, has since been to Ayr to win a one-mile handicap, thereby adding ballast to the form of the Ascot race. He was raised by 4lb for that win after being dropped by 1lb, but he is still 5lb better off with Native Warrior. He goes well at Ayr, but he also goes well at Ascot and, especially if the rains arrive, he is a player.

Players

Mirabeau is also a player, and his chance would also be enhanced by rain. Dominic Ffrench Davis’ horse has been well beaten at Newbury since that Ascot race, but he didn’t have a lot of luck in-running there. He was squeezed up a little on the near rail on the run to the furlong marker. He is better than he was able to show there.

More importantly, he is only three and he is relatively lightly raced. He has plenty of potential for progression. He put up a big performance in that Ascot race last month, on his only run to date at the Berkshire track, and he could improve on that on softer ground. His two wins, in the autumn of last year, were both on soft ground, and he finished fifth in the Group 3 Horris Hill last year on heavy. He has the potential to out-perform his rating of 97 on soft ground.

That said, given the nature of the two Ascot races, and the spacing between them, you would think that there would be a strong connection between the two, but there isn’t. Popmaster was second in both races in 2023, River Nymph was third in the September race and fourth in the October race in 2022, but there isn’t as strong a correlation between the two races as the market seems to think. The value may lie away from the September race.

Form of his life

Hickory could be the answer. Jamie Osborne’s horse is seven now, but he has been in the form of his life this season, and he is at his best at Ascot. Winner of the Victoria Cup at Ascot on his debut this season, and third in a good one-mile handicap on King George weekend, when he won a classified stakes there last month, he put up one of the best performances of his career.

The handicapper raised him by 3lb for that win, which takes him up to a career-high mark of 93, but he had never been higher than 90 before he won that Classified Stakes, a race in which he was conceding weight to horses rated 88 and 89 and 90, and a race in which he was impressive in winning. And the runner-up from that race, Fondo Blanco, looked very good in winning a competitive one-mile handicap at Haydock last Saturday. He is now rated 101, 13lb higher than he was when Hickory beat him, giving him 4lb.

Hickory’s hold-up style of racing is well suited to Ascot. Saffie Osborne’s absence is not a positive, she is very good and she has struck up a great relationship with Hickory, but Ed Greatrex is having a good season, and you can see him dropping Hickory out early and delivering him late.

He is nicely drawn too in stall four, it looks like a lot of the pace is low. He is next door to Yanifer and he is three away from Balmacara.

Rahmi comes into it too, he was very good in winning the Sovereign Path handicap, delivered with a really well-timed run by Rory Mulligan. It is obviously significant that Johnny Murtagh is sending him over, but he has to race off a 9lb-higher mark than the mark off which he won the Sovereign Path, and Rory Mulligan can only claim 5lb, not 7lb. You can see him running well, but he is higher in the handicap and into a better race and he is a shorter price than he was at Leopardstown.

Sun Chariot Stakes

Lady Of Spain is a shorter price for the BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket than she was for the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown in August, but she deserves to be, and she probably should be even shorter than she is. Roger Varian’s filly was racing for the first time in 2025 when she raced at Sandown, and she was racing for the first time on turf, but she made light of all that, quickening up smartly and getting home by a half a length from Blue Bullet, with the pair of them clear.

This is obviously going to be tougher, into a Group 1 race from a Group 3, but there is no knowing how good she could be. She has raced five times now, and she has won five times.

She was understandably weak in the market before the Atalanta Stakes, so there is every chance that she will come on considerably for the run, her first since December, her first on grass. Fallen Angel and Cinderella’s Dream are obviously top class, but Lady Of Spain has the potential to get up to their level today.

Recommended

Hickory 3.35 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (generally)

Lady Of Spain 2.40 Newmarket - 1pt win @ 11/2 (generally)