YOU can make a case for plenty in the Bet365 Handicap Chase at Ascot today.

You can easily understand why Vincenzo has been put in as favourite. Sam Thomas’ horse was progressive last season, his first season over fences, and he ran a big race on his debut this term to finish second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham behind Panic Attack, who followed up by winning the Coral Gold Cup next time off a 4lb higher mark. She is now rated 13lb higher than she was then, and she appeared to run right up to her mark when she ran out an impressive winner of a listed mares’ chase at Newbury on Wednesday.

Vincenzo was raised by just 2lb for that run, and he ran well again off his new mark of 139 to finish second in the December Gold Cup, back at Cheltenham, on the New Course, to Glengouly, who made all the running, when he had Jagwar just behind him.

Another rise of 1lb was fair, today’s mark of 140 should be well within range, for a horse who has raced just six times over fences and who still has the potential to continue his progression. But he has never run over fences at Ascot and he was beaten at relatively short prices in his two races over hurdles there. He is probably shorter anyway than any horse should be in such a competitive race.

Bad is a player, and he goes well right-handed, and he was travelling well in this race last year when he fell on the run down the side of the track. But he finished well behind Etalon and Scarface at Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle meeting just before Christmas over a slightly shorter trip, and he is probably a better horse at Kempton than he is at Ascot. He has run at the Berkshire track eight times, and he has never won there.

There shouldn’t be much between Etalon and Scarface again, but there are reasons for believing that Scarface can reverse placings. For starters, he is 4lb better off with Dan Skelton’s horse. Also, the slight step up in trip should be more in favour of Joe Tizzard’s horse, a horse who has won over two miles and five and a half furlongs. Etalon has never won over further than the two-mile-three-furlong trip over which he won last time.

Also, Etalon raced towards the middle of the track for much of the race last time, whereas Scarface raced closer to the inside, possibly on the worst of the ground. And Scarface made a momentum-checking mistake at the second last fence.

Value bet

That said, Hitman could be the value of the race. Paul Nicholls’ horse is 10 now, and he has won just five times from 30 attempts, but the evidence suggests that he retains all his enthusiasm for racing, and this type of test could suit him.

He put up a big performance in this race last year, travelling well and moving to the front at the second last fence, before being overhauled late on by Terresita, his chance not helped by the fact that he didn’t see a stride at the final fence and got in tight.

Last season, he finished second to Minella Drama in the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal return before going to Ascot. This season, he won the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal return, he stayed on well to get the better of Master Chewy, when they had Minella Drama back in third.

He was well beaten in the Peterborough Chase last time, so you have to allow him that. But that was his first run at Huntingdon, and he just couldn’t go with Djelo when he quickened from the home turn.

He should be happier back at Ascot today, a track at which he has run just once, in this race last year, when he put up one of his best performances in defeat. That Peterborough Chase run saw his handicap rating reduced by 2lb too, back to a mark of 155, 1lb lower than the mark off which he finished second in this race last year.

He goes well on good to soft ground and on soft ground, and this intermediate trip is ideal for him. He obviously has plenty of weight, but he almost carried 12st to victory last year, and two of the last five winners of this race carried 11st 10lb.

Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle

Some 33 minutes later, Marche D’Aligre could represent the value in the BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle. Jamie Snowden’s horse is lightly raced and progressive, and the step up in trip to almost two and a half miles today could see him take another step forward.

He finished a close second to Saligo Bay in a two-mile handicap hurdle at Wetherby on his debut this season off a mark of 118. The first two were clear, and the winner won again next time at Haydock off a 6lb higher mark. He is now rated 13lb higher than he was then. Also, Marche D’Aligre finished off his race strongly, he closed all the way to the line, and he left the impression that he would be suited by a stiffer test of stamina.

He was back over two miles last time at Sandown, on Tingle Creek Chase weekend and, again, after making a mistake at the final flight, he stuck to his task well to finish second to Across Earth, who enhanced the form when he went close next time off a 6lb higher mark.

The handicapper raised Marche D’Aligre by just 1lb for that run, which takes him up to a mark of 122, just 1lb higher than he was last March, and that is a more than workable mark. He is flat-bred, his dam won over 10 furlongs, but he shapes as though he will appreciate the step up in trip today. He goes well on soft ground, he won on the flat in France on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and his record over hurdles on soft ground since his arrival from France reads 222.He could enhance that record today.

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