MY Lupton and Stone Of Destiny both go into today’s QTS Ayr Gold Cup on the back of big sprint handicap wins last weekend.

Mr Lupton was good in winning the ‘Bold Lad’ Sprint at the Curragh on Sunday off a mark of 100, and a 5lb penalty for that only takes him from his old mark of 98 to a mark of 102, so just 2lb higher than the Irish mark off which he raced on Sunday. That mark is 9lb lower than his peak rating, so it is well within range. But that was his first win since he won the Greenlands on Irish Guineas weekend last year, and he may have been a little flattered by the win, he got a lovely tow into the race on the far side.

Fast pace

Stone Of Destiny also looked good in winning the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last Saturday off a mark of 93, and a 5lb penalty takes him up to a mark of 98, which is 1lb lower than his new mark. He was an impressive winner of the Portland but, again, things worked out well for him. He was held up off a fast pace and delivered late on the near side.

It’s not the case that the market leaders can’t feature strongly in today’s race, they have to be on any shortlist, they both go into the race in such good form, but they are both short, and there is a chance that the market has over-reacted to their respective wins last weekend.

Nahaarr is a bigger price than both, probably because his last run was a disappointing run. You have to forgive him that, but you can. It was in the Stewards’ Cup, on fast ground at Goodwood, a track that not every horse handles. Also, that run came up just two weeks after he put up the best performance of his life in winning a six-furlong handicap at Newbury.

William Haggas’ horse ran out an easy winner that day from Watan, who finished third in a listed race at York last Sunday. He was a little keen early on, but he travelled well through his race, and he finished off strongly on the near side to run out an impressive winner.

The handicapper raised him by 7lb for that win, to a mark of 101, but he has dropped him back by 2lb now to a mark of 99 after his Goodwood run, and that mark should be well within range.

Goodish ground should be ideal and, as a four-year-old who has run just nine times in his life, he has lots of scope to progress now as a sprinter. He should get the fast pace that he needs, and there is plenty of pace around him in stall 13, with Air Raid in 14 and Staxton in 15 and Major Jumbo in 16.

Of the big-priced horses, Barbill is one of the most interesting. Mick Channon’s horse didn’t have a lot of luck in-running in the Portland, he was squeezed out of it early on and he finished off his race well. The step-up from five and a half to six furlongs is a positive, and he has been in really good form this year since he has been gelded, with the exception of a poor run in the Stewards’ Cup. That was on fast ground though, and the ground may still be on the lively side. He is one to keep in mind when the ground eases further, and perhaps at Newbury, where he has run well on a couple of occasions in the past.

UMM Kulthum is all the rage for the Firth of Clyde Stakes, and she did run a big race to finish third behind Ken Condon’s filly Miss Amulet in the Lowther Stakes last time. But she is short, and Scarlet Bear, who raced up with the pace and finished just four lengths behind her that day, after losing two shoes during the race, may represent better value.

Tom Dascombe’s filly ran better than the bare form of the race suggests last time too, when she finished third behind Happy Romance and Alcohol Free in the Group 3 Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury, the race in which Millisle was beaten a short head by Dark Lady last year. Again, she raced up with the pace and towards the far side, and she did well to finish third, given that the first two home came from further back and came down the near side, which was probably an advantage.

Even so, Scarlet Bear kept on well enough to hold off Illykato for third place. There shouldn’t be much between those two fillies again today, but Scarlet Bear can probably be marked up on the bare form of that run and, from stall one, it looks like she has been a little under-rated by the market.

Recommended

Scarlet Bear, 1 point win, 3.05 Ayr, 10/1 (generally)

Nahaarr, 1 point each-way, 3.40 Ayr, 8/1 (generally)